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We study stress, pressure, and rock properties in evolving accretionary wedges using analytical formulations and geomechanical models. The evolution of the stress state from that imposed by uniaxial burial seaward of the trench to Coulomb failure within the wedge generates overpressure and drives compaction above the décollement. Changes in both mean and shear stress generate overpressure and shear‐induced pressures play a particularly important role in the trench area. In the transition zone between uniaxial burial and Coulomb failure, shear‐induced overpressures increase more than overburden and are higher than footwall pressures. This rapid increase in overpressure reduces the effective normal stress and weakens the plate interface along a zone that onsets ahead of the trench and persists well into the subduction zone. It also drives dewatering at the trench, which enables compaction of the hanging‐wall sediments and a porosity offset at the décollement. Within the accretionary wedge, sediments are at Coulomb failure and the pore pressure response is proportional to changes in mean stress. Low permeability and high convergence rates promote overpressure generation in the wedge, which limits sediment strength. Our results may provide a hydromechanical explanation for a wide range of observed behaviors, including the development of protothrust zones, widespread occurrence of shallow slow earthquake phenomena, and the propagation of large shallow coseismic slip.

 

Subduction megathrusts exhibit a spectrum of slip modes, including catastrophic earthquakes. Although the mechanical and frictional properties of materials sampled from subduction zones have been studied extensively, few datasets have been collected for compositions and at pressure and temperature conditions representative of those in situ. The Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan is a well‐studied margin, and abundant data provide an opportunity to advance our understanding of fault and earthquake physics. Here, we use samples exhumed in the Shimanto and Sanbagawa Belts on Shikoku Island of southwest Japan that represent analogs for materials along the present‐day megathrust at depths of ∼5–>25 km, and we shear these at their peak in situ pressure‐temperature (P‐T) conditions. Effective normal stresses range from 28 to 192 MPa, and temperatures from 105°C to 470°C. We used pore fluid pressures of 45–240 MPa, corresponding to fluid overpressure ratiosλof 0.65 and 0.90. Slip velocities of 0.1–100 μm/s were used, in order to focus on the nucleation of instability and earthquakes. We found predominantly velocity‐strengthening (inherently stable) behavior under all conditions forλ = 0.65. Forλ = 0.90, velocity‐weakening behavior was observed at 350°C, with velocity‐strengthening behavior at lower and higher temperatures. The rate/state frictional stability parameter (a‐b) increases with slip velocity at temperatures up to ∼200°C and remains constant or decreases with slip velocity at higher temperatures. Overall, our results demonstrate the potentially important roles of both temperature and slip velocity in controlling the distribution of stress and frictional rheology along subduction thrusts.

 

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 358 was carried out from October 2018 through March 2019 on the D/V Chikyu in an attempt to reach a plate boundary fault zone at seismogenic depths for the first time in scientific ocean drilling. The goal was to extend Hole C0002P from ~2900 to ~5200 meters below seafloor (mbsf) and cross the seismically interpreted main décollement fault zone with logging while drilling, downhole stress measurements, cuttings sampling, mud gas sampling, and partial coring by drilling a sidetrack to create a new hole (C0002Q). Although drilling reached 3262.5 mbsf, the deepest to date in all of scientific ocean drilling, the effort to drill to and sample the target—the megathrust fault zone—was not successful. Operational challenges in establishing sidetrack holes and advancing them at reasonable rates of penetration limited the new cased hole interval to less than 60 m total at a depth shallower than the previously established casing depth of 2922 mbsf. Combined, the cuttings, logs, and ~60 cm of recovered core from sidetrack Holes C0002Q–C0002T revealed hemipelagic sediments and fine silty turbidites consistent in lithology and physical properties with those recovered in the same depth interval at the same site during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 348. Cuttings revealed evidence of only weakly deformed rock, with relatively common calcite veins but few other structural indicators. Because no downhole leak-off tests were made and very little borehole imaging was performed, no further insight into the tectonic context was acquired. After riser drilling at Site C0002 was terminated, drilling at alternate contingency Sites C0024 and C0025 was carried out. Site C0024 targeted the frontal thrust region to sample and log hanging wall rocks and the shallow portion of the décollement zone, and Site C0025 accessed sediments in the Kumano fore-arc basin. At Site C0024, a dedicated logging hole was drilled and a very complete suite of logs were acquired from 0 to 869 mbsf. Preliminary interpretation of log response and images suggests the frontal thrust zone was encountered from about 813 mbsf to the base of the hole, with a zone of notably low resistivity and steep bedding from 850 mbsf to the bottom of the hole. Core samples revealed lithologic units interpreted to be hemipelagic and turbiditic basin fill, trench fill, and Shikoku Basin sediments and encountered deformation potentially associated with a back thrust imaged in seismic reflection data. However, coring had to be terminated at about 620 mbsf, well short of the frontal thrust zone. Site C0025 recovered fore-arc basin sediments underlain by those interpreted to have been deposited in a trench-slope basin setting; no clear transition into older, inner accretionary wedge material was identified during the preliminary analysis. Coring from 400 to 571 mbsf yielded datable material and possible evidence for diapiric intrusion of sediments. 

Seafloor pressure sensor data is emerging as a promising approach to resolve vertical displacement of the seafloor in the offshore reaches of subduction zones, particularly in response to slow slip events (SSEs), although such signals are challenging to resolve due to sensor drift and oceanographic signals. Constraining offshore SSE slip distribution is of key importance to understanding earthquake and tsunami hazards posed by subduction zones. We processed seafloor pressure data from January to October 2019 acquired at the Hikurangi subduction zone, offshore New Zealand, to estimate vertical displacement associated with a large SSE that occurred beneath the seafloor array. The experiment included three self‐calibrating sensors designed to remove sensor drift, which, together with ocean general circulation models, were essential to the identification and correction of long‐period ocean variability remaining in the data after applying traditional processing techniques. We estimate that long‐period oceanographic signals that were not synchronous between pressure sensors and reference sites influenced our inferred displacements by 0.3–2.6 cm, suggesting that regionally deployed reference sites alone may not provide sufficient ocean noise correction. After incorporating long‐period ocean variability corrections into the processing, we calculate 1.0–3.3 cm of uplift during the SSE offshore Gisborne at northern Hikurangi, and 1.1–2.7 cm of uplift offshore the Hawke's Bay area at central Hikurangi. Some Hawke Bay displacements detected by pressure sensors near the trench were delayed by 6 weeks compared to the timing of slip onset detected by onshore Global Navigation Satellite System sites, suggesting updip migration of the SSE.

 

International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 358 was carried out from October 2018 through March 2019 on the D/V Chikyuin an attempt to reach a plate boundary fault zone at seismogenic depths for the first time in scientific ocean drilling. The goal was to extend Hole C0002P from ~2900 to ~5200 meters below seafloor (mbsf) and cross the seismically interpreted main décollement fault zone with logging while drilling (LWD), downhole stress measurements, cuttings sampling, mud gas sampling, and partial coring by drilling a sidetrack to create a new hole (C0002Q). Although drilling reached 3262.5 mbsf, the deepest to date in all of scientific ocean drilling, the effort to drill to and sample the target—the megathrust fault zone—was not successful. Operational challenges in establishing sidetrack holes and advancing them at reasonable rates of penetration limited the new cased hole interval to less than 60 m total at a depth shallower than the previously established casing depth of 2922 mbsf. Combined, the cuttings, logs, and ~60 cm of recovered core from sidetrack Holes C0002Q–C0002T revealed hemipelagic sediments and fine silty turbidites consistent in lithology and physical properties with those recovered in the same depth interval at the same site during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 348. Cuttings revealed evidence of only weakly deformed rock, with relatively common calcite veins but few other structural indicators. Because no downhole leak-off tests were made and very little borehole imaging was performed, no further insight into the tectonic context was acquired. After riser drilling at Site C0002 was terminated, drilling at alternate contingency Sites C0024 and C0025 was carried out. Site C0024 targeted the frontal thrust region to sample and log hanging wall rocks and the shallow portion of the décollement zone, and Site C0025 accessed sediments in the Kumano fore-arc basin. At Site C0024, a dedicated logging hole was drilled and a very complete suite of logs were acquired from 0 to 869 mbsf. Preliminary interpretation of log response and images suggests the frontal thrust zone was encountered from about 813 mbsf to the base of the hole, with a zone of notably low resistivity and steep bedding from 850 mbsf to the bottom of the hole. Core samples revealed lithologic units interpreted to be hemipelagic and turbiditic basin fill, trench fill, and Shikoku Basin sediments and encountered deformation potentially associated with a back thrust imaged in seismic reflection data. However, coring had to be terminated at about 620 mbsf, well short of the frontal thrust zone. Site C0025 recovered fore-arc basin sediments underlain by those interpreted to have been deposited in a trench-slope basin setting; no clear transition into older, inner accretionary wedge material was identified during preliminary analysis. Coring from 400 to 571 mbsf yielded datable material and possible evidence for diapiric intrusion of sediments. 

The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) is a coordinated, multiexpedition International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drilling project designed to investigate fault mechanics and seismogenesis along subduction megathrusts through direct sampling, in situ measurements, and long-term monitoring in conjunction with allied laboratory and numerical modeling studies. The fundamental scientific objectives of the NanTroSEIZE drilling project include characterizing the nature of fault slip and strain accumulation, fault and wall rock composition, fault architecture, and state variables throughout the active plate boundary system. IODP Expedition 365 is part of NanTroSEIZE Stage 3, with the following primary objectives: 1. Retrieval of a temporary observatory at Site C0010 that began monitoring temperature and pore pressure within the major splay thrust fault (termed the “megasplay”) at 400 meters below seafloor in November 2010. 2. Deployment of a complex long-term borehole monitoring system (LTBMS) designed to be connected to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) seafloor cabled observatory network postexpedition. The LTBMS incorporates multilevel pore pressure sensing, a volumetric strainmeter, tiltmeter, geophone, broadband seismometer, accelerometer, and thermistor string. Together with an existing observatory at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0002 and a planned future installation near the trench, the Site C0010 observatory allows monitoring within and above regions of contrasting behavior of the megasplay fault and the plate boundary as a whole. These include a site above the updip edge of the locked zone (Site C0002), a shallow site in the megasplay fault zone and its footwall (Site C0010), and a site at the tip of the accretionary prism (possible future installation at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0006). Together, this suite of observatories has the potential to capture deformation spanning a wide range of timescales (e.g., seismic and microseismic activity, slow slip, and interseismic strain accumulation) across a transect from near-trench to the seismogenic zone. Site C0010 is located 3.5 km along strike to the southwest of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0004. The site was drilled and cased during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 319, with casing screens spanning a ~20 m interval that includes the megasplay fault, and suspended with a temporary instrument package (a “SmartPlug”), which included pressure and temperature sensors. During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 332 in late 2010, the instrument package was replaced with an upgraded sensor package (the “GeniusPlug”), which included a set of geochemical and biological experiments in addition to pressure and temperature sensors. Expedition 365 achieved its primary scientific and operational objectives, including recovery of the GeniusPlug with a >5 y record of pressure and temperature conditions within the shallow megasplay fault zone, geochemical samples, and its in situ microbial colonization experiment; and installation of the LTBMS. The pressure records from the GeniusPlug include high-quality records of formation and seafloor responses to multiple fault slip events, including the 11 March 2011 Tohoku M9 and 1 April 2016 Mie-ken Nanto-oki M6 earthquakes. The geochemical sampling coils yielded in situ pore fluids from the splay fault zone, and microorganisms were successfully cultivated from the colonization unit. The complex sensor array, in combination with the multilevel hole completion, is one of the most ambitious and sophisticated observatory installations in scientific ocean drilling (similar to that in Hole C0002G, deployed in 2010). Overall, the installation went smoothly, efficiently, and ahead of schedule. The extra time afforded by the efficient observatory deployment was used for coring in Holes C0010B–C0010E. Despite challenging hole conditions, the depth interval corresponding to the screened casing across the megasplay fault was successfully sampled in Hole C0010C, and the footwall of the megasplay was sampled in Hole C0010E, with >50% recovery for both zones. In the hanging wall of the megasplay fault (Holes C0010C and C0010D), we recovered indurated silty clay with occasional ash layers and sedimentary breccias. Mudstones show different degrees of deformation spanning from occasional fractures to intervals of densely fractured scaly claystones of up to >10 cm thickness. Sparse faulting with low displacement (usually <2 cm) is seen in core and exhibits primarily normal and, rarely, reversed sense of slip. When present, ash was entrained along fractures and faults. In Hole C0010E, the footwall to the megasplay fault was recovered. Sediments are horizontally to gently dipping and mainly comprise silt of olive-gray color. The hanging wall sediments recovered in Holes C0010C–C0010D range in age from 3.79 to 5.59 Ma and have been thrust over the younger footwall sediments in Hole C0010E, ranging in age from 1.56 to 1.67 Ma. The deposits of the underthrust sediment prism are less indurated than the hanging wall mudstones and show lamination on a centimeter scale. The material is less intensely deformed than the mudstones, and apart from occasional fracturation (some of it being drilling disturbance), evidence of structural features is absent. 

The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) is a coordinated, multiexpedition International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drilling project designed to investigate fault mechanics and seismogenesis along subduction megathrusts through direct sampling, in situ measurements, and long-term monitoring in conjunction with allied laboratory and numerical modeling studies. The fundamental scientific objectives of the NanTroSEIZE drilling project include characterizing the nature of fault slip and strain accumulation, fault and wall rock composition, fault architecture, and state variables throughout the active plate boundary system. IODP Expedition 365 is part of NanTroSEIZE Stage 3, with the following primary objectives: (1) retrieval of a temporary observatory at Site C0010 that has been monitoring temperature and pore pressure within the major splay thrust fault (termed the “megasplay”) at 400 meters below seafloor since November 2010 and (2) deployment of a complex long-term borehole monitoring system (LTBMS) that will be connected to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) seafloor cabled observatory network postexpedition (anticipated June 2016). The LTBMS incorporates multilevel pore pressure sensing, a volumetric strainmeter, tiltmeter, geophone, broadband seismometer, accelerometer, and thermistor string. Together with an existing observatory at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0002 and a possible future installation near the trench, the Site C0010 observatory will allow monitoring within and above regions of contrasting behavior of the megasplay fault and the plate boundary as a whole. These include a site above the updip edge of the locked zone (Site C0002), a shallow site in the megasplay fault zone and its footwall (Site C0010), and a site at the tip of the accretionary prism (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0006). Together, this suite of observatories has the potential to capture deformation spanning a wide range of timescales (e.g., seismic and microseismic activity, slow slip, and interseismic strain accumulation) across a transect from near-trench to the seismogenic zone. Site C0010 is located 3.5 km along strike to the southwest of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0004. The site was drilled and cased during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 319, with casing screens spanning a ~20 m interval that includes the megasplay fault, and suspended with a temporary instrument package (a “SmartPlug”). During Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 332 in late 2010, the instrument package was replaced with an upgraded sensor package (the “GeniusPlug”), which included pressure and temperature sensors and a set of geochemical and biological experiments. Expedition 365 achieved its primary scientific and operational objectives, including recovery of the GeniusPlug with a >5 y record of pressure and temperature conditions within the shallow megasplay fault zone, geochemical samples, and its in situ microbial colonization experiment; and installation of the LTBMS. The pressure records from the GeniusPlug include high-quality records of formation and seafloor responses to multiple fault slip events, including the 11 March 2011 Tohoku M9 and 1 April 2016 Mie-ken Nanto-oki M6 earthquakes. The geochemical sampling coils yielded in situ pore fluids from the splay fault zone, and microbes were successfully cultivated from the colonization unit. The complex sensor array, in combination with the multilevel hole completion, is one of the most ambitious and sophisticated observatory installations in scientific ocean drilling (similar to that in Hole C0002G, deployed in 2010). Overall, the installation went smoothly, efficiently, and ahead of schedule. The extra time afforded by the efficient observatory deployment was used for coring in Holes C0010B–C0010E. Despite challenging hole conditions, the depth interval corresponding to the screened casing across the megasplay fault was successfully sampled in Hole C0010C, and the footwall of the megasplay was sampled in Hole C0010E, with >50% recovery for both zones. In the hanging wall of the megasplay fault (Holes C0010C and C0010D), we recovered indurated silty clay with occasional ash layers and sedimentary breccias. Some of the deposits show burrows and zones of diagenetic alteration/colored patches. Mudstones show different degrees of deformation spanning from occasional fractures to intervals of densely fractured scaly claystones of up to >10 cm thickness. Sparse faulting with low displacement (usually <2 cm) is seen in core and exhibits primarily normal and, rarely, reversed sense of slip. When present, ash was entrained along fractures and faults. On one occasion, a ~10 cm thick ash layer was found, which showed a fining-downward gradation into a mottled zone with clasts of the underlying silty claystones. In Hole C0010E, the footwall to the megasplay fault was recovered. Sediments are horizontally to gently dipping and mainly comprise silt of olive-gray color. The deposits of the underthrust sediment prism are less indurated than the hanging wall mudstones and show lamination on a centimeter scale. The material is less intensely deformed than the mudstones, and apart from occasional fracturation (some of it being drilling disturbance), evidence of structural features is absent. 

The Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) program is a coordinated, multiexpedition drilling project designed to investigate fault mechanics and seismogenesis along subduction megathrusts through direct sampling, in situ measurements, and long-term monitoring in conjunction with allied laboratory and numerical modeling studies. The fundamental scientific objectives of the NanTroSEIZE drilling project include characterizing the nature of fault slip and strain accumulation, fault and wall rock composition, fault architecture, and state variables throughout the active plate boundary system. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 365 will recover temporary monitoring instruments (a “GeniusPlug”) from previously drilled and cased Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0010 and deploy a permanent long-term borehole monitoring system (LTBMS) in the same hole after deepening it to ~656 meters below seafloor (mbsf). These operations will complete preparations begun during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 319 and continued during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 332. This expedition will cover a period of 33 days, beginning on 26 March and ending on 27 April 2016. Site C0010 is located 3.5 km north of Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Site C0004 and was first drilled during Expedition 319. Operations during that expedition included drilling through the megasplay fault zone and into its footwall using logging while drilling (LWD), setting casing with screens spanning the fault zone, and installation of a simple temporary observatory (a “SmartPlug”) to monitor fluid pressure and temperature in the screened interval. Major lithologic boundaries as well as the location of the megasplay fault at ~407 mbsf were identified in LWD data and were used to select a depth interval spanning the fault for placement of the two screened casing joints. Three distinct lithologic packages were observed at Site C0010: slope deposits (Unit I, 0–182.5 mbsf), thrust wedge (Unit II, 182.5–407 mbsf), and overridden slope deposits (Unit III, 407 mbsf to total depth). During Expedition 332, the SmartPlug was recovered and replaced with an upgraded version, the GeniusPlug, which includes a set of geochemical and biological experiments housed in a 30 cm extension. This GeniusPlug will be recovered and replaced with a permanent LTBMS, which will be later linked to the Dense Oceanfloor Network System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (DONET) submarine network. This Scientific Prospectus outlines the scientific rationale, objectives, and operational plans for Site C0010 and describes the contingency plan.