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  1. Abstract West Antarctica has experienced dramatic ice losses contributing to global sea-level rise in recent decades, particularly from Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Although these ice losses manifest an ongoing Marine Ice Sheet Instability, projections of their future rate are confounded by limited observations along West Antarctica’s coastal perimeter with respect to how the pace of retreat can be modulated by variations in climate forcing. Here, we derive a comprehensive, 12-year record of glacier retreat around West Antarctica’s Pacific-facing margin and compare this dataset to contemporaneous estimates of ice flow, mass loss, the state of the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. Between 2003 and 2015, rates of glacier retreat and acceleration were extensive along the Bellingshausen Sea coastline, but slowed along the Amundsen Sea. We attribute this to an interdecadal suppression of westerly winds in the Amundsen Sea, which reduced warm water inflow to the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Our results provide direct observations that the pace, magnitude and extent of ice destabilization around West Antarctica vary by location, with the Amundsen Sea response most sensitive to interdecadal atmosphere-ocean variability. Thus, model projections accounting for regionally resolved ice-ocean-atmosphere interactions will be important for predicting accurately the short-term evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2024
  2. Abstract

    Geology and bed topography influence how ice sheets respond to climate change. Despite the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’s capacity to retreat and advance quickly over its over-deepened interior, little is known about the subglacial landscape of the East Antarctic elevated interior that probably seeded West Antarctic ice streams and glaciers. At Hercules Dome, we use three-dimensional swath radar technology to image the upstream origin of large subglacial basins that drain ice from the Antarctic interior into West Antarctic ice streams. Radar imaging reveals an ancient, alpine landscape with hanging tributary valleys and large U-shaped valleys. On the valley floors, we image subglacial landforms that are typically associated with temperate basal conditions and fast ice flow. Formation mechanisms for these subglacial landforms are fundamentally inconsistent with the currently slowly flowing ice. Regional aerogravity shows that these valleys feed into larger subglacial basins that host thick sediment columns. Past tectonism probably created these basins and promoted ice flow from Hercules Dome into the Ross and Filchner–Ronne sectors. This suggests that the landscape at Hercules Dome was shaped by fast-flowing ice in the past when the area may have served as or been proximal to a nucleation centre for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

     
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  3. Abstract

    A hierarchy of general circulation models (GCMs) is used to investigate the linearity of the response of the climate system to changes in Antarctic topography. Experiments were conducted with a GCM with either a slab ocean or fixed SSTs and sea ice, in which the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) and coastal Antarctic topography were either lowered or raised in an idealized way. Additional experiments were conducted with a fully coupled GCM with topographic perturbations based on an ice-sheet model in which the WAIS collapses. The response over the continent is the same in all model configurations and is mostly linear. In contrast, the response has substantial nonlinear elements over the Southern Ocean that depend on the model configuration and are due to feedbacks with sea ice, ocean, and clouds. The atmosphere warms near the surface over much of the Southern Ocean and cools in the stratosphere over Antarctica, whether topography is raised or lowered. When topography is lowered, the Southern Ocean surface warming is due to strengthened southward atmospheric heat transport and associated enhanced storminess over the WAIS and the high latitudes of the Southern Ocean. When topography is raised, Southern Ocean warming is more limited and is associated with circulation anomalies. The response in the fully coupled experiments is generally consistent with the more idealized experiments, but the full-depth ocean warms throughout the water column whether topography is raised or lowered. These results indicate that ice sheet–climate system feedbacks differ depending on whether the Antarctic ice sheet is gaining or losing mass.

    Significance Statement

    Throughout Earth’s history, the Antarctic ice sheet was at times taller or shorter than it is today. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean around Antarctica respond to changes in ice sheet height. We find that the response to lowering the ice sheet is not the opposite of the response to raising it, and that in either case the ocean surface near the continent warms. When the ice sheet is raised, the ocean warming is related to circulation changes; when the ice sheet is lowered, the ocean warming is from an increase in southward atmospheric heat transport. These results are important for understanding how the ice sheet height and local climate evolve together through time.

     
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  4. Past interglacial climates with smaller ice sheets offer analogs for ice sheet response to future warming and contributions to sea level rise; however, well-dated geologic records from formerly ice-free areas are rare. Here we report that subglacial sediment from the Camp Century ice core preserves direct evidence that northwestern Greenland was ice free during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 interglacial. Luminescence dating shows that sediment just beneath the ice sheet was deposited by flowing water in an ice-free environment 416 ± 38 thousand years ago. Provenance analyses and cosmogenic nuclide data and calculations suggest the sediment was reworked from local materials and exposed at the surface <16 thousand years before deposition. Ice sheet modeling indicates that ice-free conditions at Camp Century require at least 1.4 meters of sea level equivalent contribution from the Greenland Ice Sheet.

     
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available July 21, 2024
  5. Abstract

    The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) may have collapsed during the last interglacial period, between 132 000 and 116 000 years ago. The changes in topography resulting from WAIS collapse would be accompanied by significant changes in Antarctic surface climate, atmospheric circulation, and ocean conditions. Evidence of these changes may be recorded in water-isotope ratios in precipitation archived in the ice. We conduct high-resolution simulations with an isotope-enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model over Antarctica, with boundary conditions provided by climate model simulations with both present-day and lowered WAIS topography. The results show that while there is significant spatial variability, WAIS collapse would cause detectable isotopic changes at several locations where ice-core records have been obtained or could be obtained in the future. The most robust signals include elevatedδ18O at SkyTrain Ice Rise in West Antarctica and elevated deuterium excess andδ18O at Hercules Dome in East Antarctica. A combination of records from multiple sites would provide constraints on the timing, rate, and magnitude of past WAIS collapse.

     
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  6. Hercules Dome, Antarctica, has long been identified as a prospective deep ice core site due to the undisturbed internal layering, climatic setting and potential to obtain proxy records from the Last Interglacial (LIG) period when the West Antarctic ice sheet may have collapsed. We performed a geophysical survey using multiple ice-penetrating radar systems to identify potential locations for a deep ice core at Hercules Dome. The surface topography, as revealed with recent satellite observations, is more complex than previously recognized. The most prominent dome, which we term ‘West Dome’, is the most promising region for a deep ice core for the following reasons: (1) bed-conformal radar reflections indicate minimal layer disturbance and extend to within tens of meters of the ice bottom; (2) the bed is likely frozen, as evidenced by both the shape of the measured vertical ice velocity profiles beneath the divide and modeled ice temperature using three remotely sensed estimates of geothermal flux and (3) models of layer thinning have 132 ka old ice at 45–90 m above the bed with an annual layer thickness of ~1 mm, satisfying the resolution and preservation needed for detailed analysis of the LIG period. 
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  7. This archive includes data and ipython notebooks to create the figures for the manuscript "Response of water isotopes in precipitation to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model" submitted to Journal of Climate in August 2022.

    Model output from WRFwiso and iCAM is in data.zip (saved as monthly means)

    Notebooks and python modules are in scripts.zip

    Required python packages (all included in environment.yml):

    • numpy
    • matplotlib
    • netcdf4
    • basemap
    • scipy
    • wrf-python
    • windspharm
    • metpy
    • intergrid
    • cmocean
     
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  8. Abstract. Ocean-driven ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is asignificant contributor to sea-level rise. Recent ocean variability in theAmundsen Sea is controlled by near-surface winds. We combine palaeoclimatereconstructions and climate model simulations to understand past and futureinfluences on Amundsen Sea winds from anthropogenic forcing and internalclimate variability. The reconstructions show strong historical wind trends.External forcing from greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletiondrove zonally uniform westerly wind trends centred over the deep SouthernOcean. Internally generated trends resemble a South Pacific Rossby wavetrain and were highly influential over the Amundsen Sea continental shelf.There was strong interannual and interdecadal variability over the AmundsenSea, with periods of anticyclonic wind anomalies in the 1940s and 1990s,when rapid ice-sheet loss was initiated. Similar anticyclonic anomaliesprobably occurred prior to the 20th century but without causing the presentice loss. This suggests that ice loss may have been triggered naturally inthe 1940s but failed to recover subsequently due to the increasingimportance of anthropogenic forcing from greenhouse gases (since the 1960s)and ozone depletion (since the 1980s). Future projections also featurestrong wind trends. Emissions mitigation influences wind trends over thedeep Southern Ocean but has less influence on winds over the Amundsen Seashelf, where internal variability creates a large and irreducibleuncertainty. This suggests that strong emissions mitigation is needed tominimise ice loss this century but that the uncontrollable future influenceof internal climate variability could be equally important. 
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  9. null (Ed.)
    Abstract In the past 40 years, the global annual mean surface temperature has experienced a nonuniform warming, differing from the spatially uniform warming simulated by the forced responses of large multimodel ensembles to anthropogenic forcing. Rather, it exhibits significant asymmetry between the Arctic and Antarctic, with intermittent and spatially varying warming trends along the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes and a slight cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific. In particular, this “wavy” pattern of temperature changes over the NH midlatitudes features strong cooling over Eurasia in boreal winter. Here, we show that these nonuniform features of surface temperature changes are likely tied together by tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), via a global atmospheric teleconnection. Using six reanalyses, we find that this teleconnection can be consistently obtained as a leading circulation mode in the past century. This tropically driven teleconnection is associated with a Pacific SST pattern resembling the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and hereafter referred to as the IPO-related bipolar teleconnection (IPO-BT). Further, two paleo-reanalysis reconstruction datasets show that the IPO-BT is a robust recurrent mode over the past 400 and 2000 years. The IPO-BT mode may thus serve as an important internal mode that regulates high-latitude climate variability on multidecadal time scales, favoring a warming (cooling) episode in the Arctic accompanied by cooling (warming) over Eurasia and the Southern Ocean (SO). Thus, the spatial nonuniformity of recent surface temperature trends may be partially explained by the enhanced appearance of the IPO-BT mode by a transition of the IPO toward a cooling phase in the eastern Pacific in the past decades. 
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