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Changes in ice‐sheet size impact atmospheric circulation, a phenomenon documented by models but constrained by few paleoclimate records. We present sub‐centennial‐scale records of summer temperature and summer precipitation hydrogen isotope ratios (δ²H) spanning 12–7 ka from a lake on Baffin Island. In a transient model simulation, winds in this region were controlled by the relative strength of the high‐pressure systems and associated anticyclonic circulation over the retreating Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. The correlation between summer temperature and precipitation δ²H proxy records changed from negative to positive at 9.8 ka. This correlation structure indicates a shift from alternating local and remote moisture, governed by the two ice‐sheet high‐pressure systems, to only remote moisture after 9.8 ka, governed by the strong Greenland high‐pressure system after the Laurentide Ice Sheet retreated. Such rapid atmospheric circulation changes may also occur in response to future, gradual ice‐sheet retreat.

Quantitative temperature reconstructions from lacustrine organic geochemical proxies including branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) and alkenones provide key constraints on past continental climates. However, estimation of air temperatures from proxies can be impacted by non‐stationarity in the relationships between seasonal air and water temperatures, a factor not yet examined in strongly seasonal high‐latitude settings. We pair downcore analyses of brGDGTs and alkenones measured on the same samples through the Holocene with forward‐modeled proxy values based on thermodynamic lake model simulations for a western Greenland lake. The measured brGDGT distributions suggest that stable autochthonous (aquatic) production overpowers allochthonous inputs for most samples, justifying the use of the lake model to interpret temperature‐driven changes. Conventional calibration of alkenones (detected only after 5.5 thousand years BP) suggests substantially larger temperature variations than conventional calibration of brGDGTs. Comparison of proxy measurements to forward‐modeled values suggests variations in brGDGT distributions monotonically reflect multi‐decadal summer air temperatures changes, although the length of the ice‐free season dampens the influence of air temperatures on water temperatures. Drivers of alkenone variability remain less clear; potential influences include small changes in the seasonality of proxy production or biases toward specific years, both underlain by non‐linearity in water‐air temperature sensitivity during relevant seasonal windows. We demonstrate that implied temperature variability can differ substantially between proxies because of differences in air‐water temperature sensitivity during windows of proxy synthesis without necessitating threshold behavior in the lake or local climate, and recommend that future studies incorporate lake modeling to constrain this uncertainty.

Increased precipitation in the Arctic is a robust feature across model simulations of the coming century, driven by intensification of meridional moisture transport and enhanced local evaporation in the absence of sea ice. These mechanisms are associated with distinct, seasonal, spatial, and, likely, precipitation isotope (δ²H_Precip) expressions. Historical observations of δ²H_Precipreveal a contrast in seasonality between southwestern and northwestern coastal Greenland: δ²H_Precipin northwestern Greenland varies in phase with local temperature, whereas δ²H_Precipin southwestern Greenland is decoupled from local temperature and exhibits little seasonal variation. We test the hypothesis that reduced δ²H_Precipseasonality in southwestern Greenland relative to northwestern Greenland results from dynamic moisture source variations, by diagnosing monthly average moisture sources to three sink regions (Kangilinnguit, Ilulissat, and Qaanaaq) using the Water Accounting Model‐2layers model. All domains demonstrate strong intra‐annual moisture source variations. Moisture to the southernmost region is sourced most remotely in summer and most locally in winter, associated with stronger cooling from the source in summer than winter, promoting more negative δ²H_Precipand counteracting local temperature‐driven seasonality. In comparison, moisture transport distance to the northernmost region is relatively constant, as local sea ice restricts northward migration of the winter moisture source. We simulate seasonal patterns in δ²H_Precipin a simple Rayleigh model, which confirm the importance of source temperature and starting isotopic compositions in determining δ²H_Precipfor these regions. δ²H_Precipsensitivity to moisture source variability suggests these coastal Arctic settings may yield paleoclimate records sensitive to the moisture transport processes predicted to amplify future precipitation.

The Arctic hydrological cycle is predicted to intensify as the Arctic warms, due to increased poleward moisture transport during summer and increased evaporation from seas once ice‐covered during winter. Records of past Arctic precipitation seasonality are important because they provide a context for these ongoing changes. In some Arctic lakes, stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen (δ¹⁸O and δ²H, respectively) vary seasonally, due to seasonal changes in precipitation δ¹⁸O and δ²H. We reconstruct precipitation seasonality from Lake N3, a well‐dated lake sediment archive in Disko Bugt, western Greenland, by generating Holocene records of two proxies that are produced at different times of the year, and therefore record different lake water seasonal isotopic compositions. Aquatic plants synthesize waxes throughout the summer, and their δ²H reflects winter‐biased precipitation δ²H at Lake N3, whereas chironomids synthesize their head capsules between late summer and winter, and their δ¹⁸O reflects summer‐biased precipitation δ¹⁸O at Lake N3. During the middle Holocene at Lake N3, aquatic plant leaf wax was strongly²H‐depleted, while chironomid chitin was¹⁸O‐enriched. We guide interpretations of these records using sensitivity tests of a lake water and energy balance model, where we change precipitation amount and isotope seasonality inputs. The sensitivity tests suggest that the contrasting trends between proxies were likely caused by an increase in precipitation amount during all seasons and an increase in precipitation isotope seasonality, in addition to proxy‐specific mechanisms, highlighting the importance of understanding lake‐ and proxy‐specific systematics when interpreting records from sediment archives.

Arctic precipitation is predicted to increase this century. Records of past precipitation seasonality provide baselines for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics controlling Arctic precipitation. We present an approach to reconstruct Arctic precipitation seasonality using stable hydrogen isotopes (δ²H) of aquatic plant waxes in neighboring lakes with contrasting water residence times and present a case study of this approach in two lakes on western Greenland. Residence time calculations suggest that growing season lake water δ²H in one lake reflects summer precipitation δ²H, while the other reflects amount‐weighted annual precipitation δ²H and evaporative enrichment. Aquatic plant wax δ²H in the “summer lake” is relatively constant throughout the Holocene, perhaps reflecting competing effects of local summer warmth and increased distal moisture transport due to a strengthened latitudinal temperature gradient. In contrast, aquatic plant wax δ²H in the “mean annual lake” is 100‰²H depleted from 6 to 4 ka relative to the beginning and end of the record. Because there are relatively minor changes in summer precipitation δ²H, we interpret the 100‰²H depletion in mean annual precipitation to reflect an increase in winter precipitation amount, likely accompanied by changes in winter precipitation δ²H and decreased evaporative enrichment. Thus, unlike the “summer lake,” the “mean annual lake” records changes in winter precipitation. This dual‐lake approach may be applied to reconstruct past changes in precipitation seasonality at sites with strong precipitation isotope seasonality and minimal lake water evaporative enrichment.