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Abstract The origins of the upper branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are traced with backward‐in‐time Lagrangian trajectories, quantifying the partition of volume transport between different routes of entry from the Indo‐Pacific into the Atlantic. Particles are advected by the velocity field from a recent release of “Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean” (ECCOv4). This global time‐variable velocity field is a dynamically consistent interpolation of over 1 billion oceanographic observations collected between 1992 and 2015. Of the 13.6 Sverdrups (1 Sv = 10⁶ m³/s) flowing northward across 6°S, 15% enters the Atlantic from Drake Passage, 35% enters from the straits between Asia and Australia (Indonesian Throughflow), and 49% comes from the region south of Australia (Tasman Leakage). Because of blending in the Agulhas region, water mass properties in the South Atlantic are not a good indicator of origin. 

Abstract Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models. 

Using velocities from a state estimate, Lagrangian analysis maps the global routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) exiting the Atlantic and reentering the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Virtual particle trajectories followed for 8100 years highlight an upper route (32%) and a lower route (68%). The latter samples σ 2 > 37.07 and is further divided into subpolar (20%) and abyssal cells (48%). Particles in the abyssal cell detour into the abyssal North Pacific before upwelling in the Southern Ocean. NADW preferentially upwells north of 33°S (67%). Total diapycnal transformations are largest in the lower route but of comparable magnitudes in the upper route, challenging its previous characterization as “adiabatic.” Typical transit times are 300, 700, and 3600 years for the upper route, subpolar, and abyssal cells, respectively. The AMOC imports salinity into the Atlantic, indicating its potential instability to high-latitude freshwater perturbations. 

Abstract It is well established that the mean transport through Bering Strait is balanced by a sea level difference between the North Pacific and the Arctic Ocean, but no mechanism has been proposed to explain this sea level difference. It is argued that the sea level difference across Bering Strait, which geostrophically balances the northward throughflow, is associated with the sea level difference between the North Pacific and the North Atlantic/Arctic. In turn, the latter difference is caused by deeper middepth isopycnals in the Indo-Pacific than in the Atlantic, especially in the northern high latitudes because there is deep water formation in the Atlantic, but not in the Pacific. Because the depth of the middepth isopycnals is associated with the dynamics of the upper branch of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), a model is formulated that quantitatively relates the sea level difference between the North Pacific and the Arctic/North Atlantic with the wind stress in the Antarctic Circumpolar region, since this forcing powers the MOC, and with the outcropping isopycnals shared between the Northern Hemisphere and the Antarctic circumpolar region, since this controls the location of deep water formation. This implies that if the sinking associated with the MOC were to occur in the North Pacific, rather than the North Atlantic, then the Bering Strait flow would reverse. These predictions, formalized in a theoretical box model, are confirmed by a series of numerical experiments in a simplified geometry of the World Ocean, forced by steady surface wind stress, temperature, and freshwater flux. 

In this article, I use the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean version 4 (ECCO4) reanalysis to estimate the residual meridional overturning circulation, zonally averaged, over the separate Atlantic and Indo-Pacific sectors. The abyssal component of this estimate differs quantitatively from previously published estimates that use comparable observations, indicating that this component is still undersampled. I also review recent conceptual models of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and of the mid-depth and abyssal stratification. These theories show that dynamics in the Antarctic circumpolar region are essential in determining the deep and abyssal stratification. In addition, they show that a mid-depth cell consistent with observational estimates is powered by the wind stress in the Antarctic circumpolar region, while the abyssal cell relies on interior diapycnal mixing, which is bottom intensified. 

While the Atlantic Ocean is ventilated by high-latitude deep water formation and exhibits a pole-to-pole overturning circulation, the Pacific Ocean does not. This asymmetric global overturning pattern has persisted for the past 2–3 million years, with evidence for different ventilation modes in the deeper past. In the current climate, the Atlantic-Pacific asymmetry occurs because the Atlantic is more saline, enabling deep convection. To what extent the salinity contrast between the two basins is dominated by atmospheric processes (larger net evaporation over the Atlantic) or oceanic processes (salinity transport into the Atlantic) remains an outstanding question. Numerical simulations have provided support for both mechanisms; observations of the present climate support a strong role for atmospheric processes as well as some modulation by oceanic processes. A major avenue for future work is the quantification of the various processes at play to identify which mechanisms are primary in different climate states.