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Information technologies enable programmers and engineers to design and synthesize systems of startling complexity that nonetheless behave as intended. This mastery of complexity is made possible by a hierarchy of formal abstractions that span from high-level programming languages down to low-level implementation specifications, with rigorous connections between the levels. DNA nanotechnology presents us with a new molecular information technology whose potential has not yet been fully unlocked in this way. Developing an effective hierarchy of abstractions may be critical for increasing the complexity of programmable DNA systems. Here, we build on prior practice to provide a new formalization of ‘domain-level’ representations of DNA strand displacement systems that has a natural connection to nucleic acid biophysics while still being suitable for formal analysis. Enumeration of unimolecular and bimolecular reactions provides a semantics for programmable molecular interactions, with kinetics given by an approximate biophysical model. Reaction condensation provides a tractable simplification of the detailed reactions that respects overall kinetic properties. The applicability and accuracy of the model is evaluated across a wide range of engineered DNA strand displacement systems. Thus, our work can serve as an interface between lower-level DNA models that operate at the nucleotide sequence level, and high-level chemical reaction network models that operate at the level of interactions between abstract species. 

Nucleic acid kinetic simulators aim to predict the kinetics of interacting nucleic acid strands. Many simulators model the kinetics of interacting nucleic acid strands as continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs). States of the CTMCs represent a collection of secondary structures, and transitions between the states correspond to the forming or breaking of base pairs and are determined by a nucleic acid kinetic model. The number of states these CTMCs can form may be exponentially large in the length of the strands, making two important tasks challenging, namely, mean first passage time (MFPT) estimation and parameter estimation for kinetic models based on MFPTs. Gillespie’s stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) is widely used to analyze nucleic acid folding kinetics, but could be computationally expensive for reactions whose CTMC has a large state space or for slow reactions. It could also be expensive for arbitrary parameter sets that occur in parameter estimation. Our work addresses these two challenging tasks, in the full state space of all non-pseudoknotted secondary structures of each reaction. In the first task, we show how to use a reduced variance stochastic simulation algorithm (RVSSA), which is adapted from SSA, to estimate the MFPT of a reaction’s CTMC. In the second task, we estimate model parameters based on MFPTs. To this end, first, we show how to use a generalized method of moments (GMM) approach, where we minimize a squared norm of moment functions that we formulate based on experimental and estimated MFPTs. Second, to speed up parameter estimation, we introduce a fixed path ensemble inference (FPEI) approach, that we adapt from RVSSA. We implement and evaluate RVSSA and FPEI using the Multistrand kinetic simulator. In our experiments on a dataset of DNA reactions, FPEI speeds up parameter estimation compared to inference using SSA, by more than a factor of three for slow reactions. Also, for reactions with large state spaces, it speeds up parameter estimation by more than a factor of two. 

Models of nucleic acid thermal stability are calibrated to a wide range of experimental observations, and typically predict equilibrium probabilities of nucleic acid secondary structures with reasonable accuracy. By comparison, a similar calibration and evaluation of nucleic acid kinetic models to a broad range of measurements has not been attempted so far. We introduce an Arrhenius model of interacting nucleic acid kinetics that relates the activation energy of a state transition with the immediate local environment of the affected base pair. Our model can be used in stochastic simulations to estimate kinetic properties and is consistent with existing thermodynamic models. We infer parameters for our model using an ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach on a training dataset with 320 kinetic measurements of hairpin closing and opening, helix association and dissociation, bubble closing and toehold-mediated strand exchange. Our new model surpasses the performance of the previously established Metropolis model both on the training set and on a testing set of size 56 composed of toehold-mediated 3-way strand displacement with mismatches and hairpin opening and closing rates: reaction rates are predicted to within a factor of three for 93.4% and 78.5% of reactions for the training and testing sets, respectively.