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The dayside equatorial ionospheric electrodynamics exhibit strong variability driven simultaneously by highly changeable external forcings that originate from the solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV), magnetosphere, and lower atmosphere. We investigate this variability by carrying out comprehensive data‐driven ensemble modeling using a coupled model of the thermosphere and ionosphere, with the focus on the verticalE×Bdrift variability during a solar minimum and minor storm period. The variability of verticalE×Bdrift in response to the changes and uncertainty of primary forcings (i.e., solar EUV, high‐latitude plasma convection and auroral particle precipitation, and lower‐atmospheric tide and wave forcing) is investigated by ensemble forcing sensitivity experiments that incorporate data‐driven stochastic perturbations of these forcings into the model. Second, the impact of assimilating FORMOsa SATellite‐3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC) electron density profiles (EDPs) on the reduction of uncertainty of the modeled verticalE×Bdrift variability resulting from inadequately specified external forcing is revealed. The Communication and Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) ion drift velocity observations are used for validation. The validation results support the importance of the use of a data‐driven forcing perturbation methods in ensemble modeling and data assimilation. In conclusion, the solar EUV dominates the global‐scale day‐to‐day variability, while the lower atmosphere tide and wave forcing is critical to determining the regional variability. The modeled verticalE×Bdrift is also sensitive to the magnetospheric forcing. The ensemble data assimilation of FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC EDPs helps to reduce the uncertainty and improves agreement of the modeled verticalE×Bdrifts with C/NOFS observations.

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Radio Occultation (RO) missions, such as the Formosa Satellite‐3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC) and the upcoming FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2, provide valuable profiling of the ionized atmosphere for the monitoring of space weather. This study shows that the FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC and FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 missions' ability to monitor highly variable ionospheric weather can be considerably extended with the help of data assimilation. The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Ionosphere is a new data assimilation system designed specifically for the low‐latitude and midlatitude ionosphere. The capability of the GSI Ionosphere is first demonstrated with actual FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC RO total electron content (TEC) data for January 2013. Features of the ionospheric equatorial ionization anomaly in a coupled plasmasphere ionosphere thermosphere model become more consistent with the TEC maps created with independent ground‐based GPS data. The consistency has improved by assimilation of FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC RO data up to about 50% in comparison to the control simulation case without data assimilation. To evaluate the impact of future RO missions on ionospheric weather specification, comparative Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are carried out with synthetic RO TEC data. An OSSE of FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 shows that the GSI Ionosphere can improve the ionospheric specification within ±30° geomagnetic latitude by 67% over the control case, which is comparable to the improvement yielded by FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC for 2009 (61%). These results indicate a great potential for improving the monitoring of realistic ionospheric weather with the help of FORMOSAT‐7/COSMIC‐2 RO TEC data.