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Understanding the fitness consequences of different life histories is critical for explaining their diversity and for predicting effects of changing environmental conditions. However, current theory on plant life histories relies on phenomenological, rather than mechanistic, models of resource production.

We combined a well‐supported mechanistic model of ontogenetic growth that incorporates differences in the size‐dependent scaling of gross resource production and maintenance costs with a dynamic optimization model to predict schedules of reproduction and prolonged dormancy (plants staying below ground for ≥1 growing season) that maximize lifetime offspring production.

Our model makes three novel predictions: First, maintenance costs strongly influence the conditions under which a monocarpic or polycarpic life history evolves and how resources should be allocated to reproduction by polycarpic plants. Second, in contrast to previous theory, our model allows plants to compensate for low survival conditions by allocating a larger proportion of resources to storage and thereby improving overwinter survival. Incorporating this ecological mechanism in the model is critically important because without it our model never predicts significant investment into storage, which is inconsistent with empirical observations. Third, our model predicts that prolonged dormancy may evolve solely in response to resource allocation trade‐offs.

Significance. Our findings reveal that maintenance costs and the effects of resource allocation on survival are primary determinants of the fitness consequences of different life history strategies, yet previous theory on plant life history evolution has largely ignored these factors. Our findings also validate recent arguments that prolonged dormancy may be an optimal response to costs of sprouting. These findings have broad implications for understanding patterns of plant life history variation and predicting plant responses to changing environments.

 

Abstract Background and Aims In a range of plant species, the distribution of individual mean fecundity is skewed and dominated by a few highly fecund individuals. Larger plants produce greater seed crops, but the exact nature of the relationship between size and reproductive patterns is poorly understood. This is especially clear in plants that reproduce by exhibiting synchronized quasi-periodic variation in fruit production, a process called masting. Methods We investigated covariation of plant size and fecundity with individual-plant-level masting patterns and seed predation in 12 mast-seeding species: Pinus pinea, Astragalus scaphoides, Sorbus aucuparia, Quercus ilex, Q. humilis, Q. rubra, Q. alba, Q. montana, Chionochloa pallens, C. macra, Celmisia lyallii and Phormium tenax. Key Results Fecundity was non-linearly related to masting patterns. Small and unproductive plants frequently failed to produce any seeds, which elevated their annual variation and decreased synchrony. Above a low fecundity threshold, plants had similar variability and synchrony, regardless of their size and productivity. Conclusions Our study shows that within-species variation in masting patterns is correlated with variation in fecundity, which in turn is related to plant size. Low synchrony of low-fertility plants shows that the failure years were idiosyncratic to each small plant, which in turn implies that the small plants fail to reproduce because of plant-specific factors (e.g. internal resource limits). Thus, the behaviour of these sub-producers is apparently the result of trade-offs in resource allocation and environmental limits with which the small plants cannot cope. Plant size and especially fecundity and propensity for mast failure years play a major role in determining the variability and synchrony of reproduction in plants.