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Abstract Changes in the severity and likelihood of flooding events are typically associated with changes in the intensity and frequency of streamflows, but temporal adjustments in a river's conveyance capacity can also contribute to shifts in flood hazard. To assess the relative importance of channel conveyance to flood hazard, we compare variations in channel conveyance to variations in the flow magnitude of moderate (1.2 years) floods at 50 river gauges in western Washington State between 1930 and 2020. In unregulated rivers, moderate floods have increased across the region, but in regulated rivers this trend is suppressed and in some cases reversed. Variations in channel conveyance are ubiquitous, but the magnitude and timing of adjustments are not regionally uniform. At 40% of gages, conveyance changes steadily and gradually. More often, however, conveyance variability is nonlinear, consisting of multidecadal oscillations (36% of gages), rapid changes due to unusually large sediment‐supply events (14% of gages), and increases or decreases to conveyance following flow regulation (10% of gages). The relative importance of conveyance variability for flood risk depends on the mode of adjustment; in certain locations with historic landslides, extreme floods, and flow regulation, the influence of conveyance changes on flood risk matches or exceeds that of streamflow at the same site. Flood hazard management would benefit from incorporating historic long‐term and short‐term conveyance changes in predictions of future flood hazard variability. 

Abstract Modeled stream discharge is often used to drive sediment transport models across channel networks. Because sediment transport varies non‐linearly with flow rates, discharge modeled from daily total precipitation distributed evenly over 24‐hr may significantly underestimate actual bedload transport capacity. In this study, we assume bedload transport capacity determined from a hydrograph resulting from the use of hourly (1‐hr) precipitation is a close approximation of actual transport capacity and quantify the error introduced into a network‐scale bedload transport model driven by daily precipitation at channel network locations varying from lowland pool‐riffle channels to upland colluvial channels in a watershed where snow accumulation and melt can affect runoff processes. Transport capacity is determined using effective stresses and the Wilcock and Crowe (2003) equations and expressed in terms of transport capacity normalized by the bankfull value. We find that, depending on channel network location, cumulative error can range from 10% to more than two orders of magnitude. Surprisingly, variation in flow rates due to differences in hillslope and channel runoff do not seem to dictate the network locations where the largest errors in predicted bedload transport capacity occur. Rather, spatial variability of the magnitude of the effective‐bankfull‐excess shear stress and changes in runoff due to snow accumulation and melt exert the greatest influence. These findings have implications for flood‐hazard and aquatic habitat models that rely on modeled sediment transport driven by coarse‐temporal‐resolution climate data. 

Abstract Bed material abrasion is a major control on the partitioning of basin‐scale sediment fluxes between coarse and fine material. While abrasion is traditionally treated as an exponential function of transport distance and a lithology‐specific abrasion coefficient, experimental studies have demonstrated greater complexity in the abrasion process: the rate of abrasion varies with clast angularity, transport rate, and grain size. Yet, few studies have attempted to assess the importance of these complexities in a field setting. Here, we develop a new method for rapidly quantifying baseline abrasion rate in the field via Schmidt Hammer Rock Strength. We use this method, along with measurements of gravel bar lithology, to quantify abrasion in the Suiattle River, a basin in the North Cascades of Washington State in which sediment supply to the channel is dominated by recurrent debris flows from a tributary draining Glacier Peak stratovolcano. Rapid downstream strengthening of river bar sediment and a preferential loss of weak, low‐density vesicular volcanic clasts relative to non‐vesicular ones suggest that abrasion is extremely effective in this system. The standard exponential model for downstream abrasion, using single‐lithology abrasion rates fails to reproduce observed downstream patterns in lithology and clast strength. Incorporating heterogeneity in source material strength as well as transport rate‐dependent abrasion largely resolves this failure. Further work is needed to develop a comprehensive quantitative framework for the dependence of bed material abrasion on grain size and transport rate. 

Abstract Mass movements from glacial and lahar terraces in the middle and lower reaches of rivers draining the Washington Cascade Range to Puget Sound may represent a substantial but poorly quantified portion of those rivers' sediment supply and pose significant mass movement hazards. We used repeat LiDAR elevation data, aerial imagery, and well logs to quantify and characterize terrace sediment delivery in nine major watersheds over a median period of 12 years. In the 1,946 river kilometers for which repeat LiDAR was available (71% of the 2,736 total river kilometers flanked by terraces), 167 mass movements eroded 853,600 ± 19,400 m³/yr. Analysis of mass movement frequency and volume indicates that terrace sediment delivery is dominated by small, frequent mass movements, as opposed to large, infrequent ones like the 2014 Oso landslide. This sediment source is low in river networks, well connected to streams, and has a substantial coarse‐grained and durable component, all of which increase its significance to sedimentation in developed, lowland reaches. However, rates of terrace sediment delivery vary among basins and between adjacent terraces, which are stratigraphically laterally heterogeneous. While lateral fluvial erosion is usually necessary to initiate terrace mass movements, valley bottom geometry and terrace stratigraphy poorly predict erosion volume, which is better predicted by hillslope geometry and mass movement style. Effective management of sedimentation and mass movement hazard should acknowledge the importance of terrace sediment delivery and the variability among and within watersheds in sediment delivery, sediment characteristics, and failure mechanisms. 

Abstract A mountain watershed network model is presented for use in decadal to centurial estimation of source‐to‐sink sediment dynamics. The model requires limited input parameters and can be effectively applied over spatial scales relevant to management of reservoirs, lakes, streams, and watersheds (1–100 km²). The model operates over a connected stream network of Strahler‐ordered segments. The model is driven by streamflow from a physically based hydrology model and hillslope sediment supply from a stochastic mass wasting algorithm. For each daily time step, segment‐scale sediment mass balance is computed using bedload and suspended load transport equations. Sediment transport is partitioned between grain size fractions for bedload as gravel and sand, and for suspended load as sand and mud. Bedload and suspended load can deposit and re‐entrain at each segment. We demonstrated the model in the Elwha River Basin, upstream of the former Glines Canyon dam, over the dam's historic 84‐year lifespan. The model predicted the lifetime reservoir sedimentation volume within the uncertainty range of the measured volume (13.7–18.5 million m³) for 25 of 28 model instances. Gravel, sand, and mud fraction volumes were predicted within measurement uncertainty ranges for 18 model instances. The network model improved the prediction of sediment yields compared to at‐a‐station sediment transport capacity relations. The network model also provided spatially and temporally distributed information that allowed for inquiry and understanding of the physical system beyond the sediment yields at the outlet. This work advances cross‐disciplinary and application‐oriented watershed sediment yield modeling approaches. 

Abstract River channel beds aggrade and incise through time in response to temporal variation in the upstream supply of water and sediment. However, we lack a thorough understanding of which of these is the dominant driver of channel bed elevation change. This lack hampers flood hazard prediction, as changes to the bed elevation can either augment or reduce flood heights. Here, we explore the drivers of channel change using multidecadal time series of river bed elevation at 49 United States Geological Survey (USGS) gage sites in the uplands of Washington State, USA. We find that channel bed elevations at many of the gages change remarkably little over >80 years, while others are highly unstable. Despite regionally synchronous decadal fluctuations in flood intensity, there is a lack of regional synchrony of channel response at the decadal scale. At the monthly scale, the magnitude of antecedent high flow events between gage measurements does not predict either the direction or magnitude of shift in channel bed elevation. That variations in flood magnitude are insufficient to explain changes in bed elevation suggests that fluctuations in sediment supply, rather than variation in peak flows, are the primary driver of change to river bed elevation. In this region, channels downstream from glaciers have statistically significantly greater variability in bed elevation compared to those lacking upstream glaciers. Together, these findings suggest that aggradation and incision signals in this region predominately reflect fluctuations in sediment supply, commonly associated with glaciogenic sources, rather than response to high flow events. 

Abstract. We developed a new rule-based, cellular-automaton algorithm for predicting the hazard extent, sediment transport, and topographic change associated with the runout of a landslide. This algorithm, which we call MassWastingRunout (MWR), is coded in Python and implemented as a component for the package Landlab. MWR combines the functionality of simple runout algorithms used in landscape evolution and watershed sediment yield models with the predictive detail typical of runout models used for landslide inundation hazard mapping. An initial digital elevation model (DEM), a regolith depth map, and the location polygon of the landslide source area are the only inputs required to run MWR to model the entire runout process. Runout relies on the principle of mass conservation and a set of topographic rules and empirical formulas that govern erosion and deposition. For the purpose of facilitating rapid calibration to a site, MWR includes a calibration utility that uses an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to automatically calibrate the model to match observed runout extent, deposition, and erosion. Additionally, the calibration utility produces empirical probability density functions of each calibration parameter that can be used to inform probabilistic implementation of MWR. Here we use a series of synthetic terrains to demonstrate basic model response to topographic convergence and slope, test calibrated model performance relative to several observed landslides, and briefly demonstrate how MWR can be used to develop a probabilistic runout hazard map. A calibrated runout model may allow for region-specific and more insightful predictions of landslide impact on landscape morphology and watershed-scale sediment dynamics and should be further investigated in future modeling studies. 

We use salinity observations from drifters and moorings at the Quinault River mouth to investigate mixing and stratification in a surf-zone-trapped river plume. We quantify mixing based on the rate of change of salinity DS/Dt in the drifters’ quasi-Lagrangian reference frame. We estimate a constant value of the vertical eddy diffusivity of salt of Kz=(2.2 +/- 0.6) x 10^-3 m^2 s^-1, based on the relationship between vertically integrated DS/Dt and stratification, with values as high as 1 x 10^-2 m^2 s^-1 when stratification is low. Mixing, quantified as DS/Dt, is directly correlated to surf-zone stratification, and is therefore modulated by changes in stratification caused by tidal variability in freshwater volume flux. High DS/Dt is observed when the near-surface stratification is high and salinity gradients are collocated with wave-breaking turbulence. We observe a transition from low stratification and low DS/Dt at low tidal stage to high stratification and high DS/Dt at high tidal stage. Observed wave-breaking turbulence does not change significantly with stratification, tidal stage, or offshore wave height; as a result, we observe no relationship between plume mixing and offshore wave height for the range of conditions sampled. Thus, plume mixing in the surf zone is altered by changes in stratification; these are due to tidal variability in freshwater flux from the river and not wave conditions, presumably because depth-limited wave breaking causes sufficient turbulence for mixing to occur during all observed conditions.