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Abstract Groundwater aquifers are an essential source of drinking water, and must be protected against contamination. Phosphogypsum stacks originating from the processing of phosphate rock contain small amounts of radionuclides, such as²²⁶Ra. In September 2016, a sinkhole located beneath a phosphogypsum stack collapsed under central Florida’s carbonate karst terrain, where the aquifer is mostly confined, raising concern over water quality in the regions nearby. Monitoring and modeling the transport of the contaminated plume is vital to ensure drinking water criteria are met and to improve decision making regarding treatment. To achieve this, a geochemical modeling using PHREEQC software was employed to investigate the trajectory of the plume based on hydraulic and hydrologic conditions. Adsorption was simulated as a removal mechanism that could further reduce the intensity of the plume. The aquifer’s response to the release of contaminated water from the collapsed stack was quantified by simulating a number of scenarios, including variable radionuclide leakage quantities. Results suggest that it may take between 11–17 years and between 5.2 to 8.3 km from the sinkhole leak to reduce radionuclide concentrations to previous levels. Coupling the adsorption effect by minerals in Floridan aquifer (e.g. ferrihydrite, carbonate) can reduce radionuclide migration time to 9–16 years and distances between 4.3 to 7.8 km from the sinkhole leak. It can also reduce the distance needed to lower radionuclide concentrations, though not significantly. Additionally, due to the complexities of soil chemistry, the importance of groundwater remediation is emphasized.