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Abstract Parasite transmission is thought to depend on both parasite exposure and host susceptibility to infection; however, the relative contribution of these two factors to epidemics remains unclear. We used interactions between an aquatic host and its fungal parasite to evaluate how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to drive epidemics. In six lakes, we tracked the following factors from pre‐epidemic to epidemic emergence: (1) parasite exposure (measured observationally as fungal spores attacking wild‐caught hosts), (2) host susceptibility (measured experimentally as the number of fungal spores required to produce terminal infection), (3) host susceptibility traits (barrier resistance and internal clearance, both quantified with experimental assays), and (4) parasite prevalence (measured observationally from wild‐caught hosts). Tracking these factors over 6 months and in almost 7,000 wild‐caught hosts provided key information on the drivers of epidemics. We found that epidemics depended critically on the interaction of exposure and susceptibility; epidemics only emerged when a host population’s level of exposure exceeded its individuals’ capacity for recovery. Additionally, we found that host internal clearance traits (the hemocyte response) were critical in regulating epidemics. Our study provides an empirical demonstration of how parasite exposure and host susceptibility interact to inhibit or drive disease in natural systems and demonstrates that epidemics can be delayed by asynchronicity in the two processes. Finally, our results highlight how individual host traits can scale up to influence broad epidemiological patterns. 

Abstract Host susceptibility may be critical for the spread of infectious disease, and understanding its basis is a goal of ecological immunology. Here, we employed a series of mechanistic tests to evaluate four factors commonly assumed to influence host susceptibility: parasite exposure, barriers to infection, immune responses, and body size. We tested these factors in an aquatic host–parasite system (Daphnia dentifera and the fungal parasite, Metschnikowia bicuspidata) using both laboratory-reared and field-collected hosts. We found support for each factor as a driver of infection. Elevated parasite exposure, which occurs through consumption of infectious fungal spores, increased a host’s probability of infection. The host’s gut epithelium functioned as a barrier to infection, but in the opposite manner from which we predicted: thinner anterior gut epithelia were more resistant to infectious spores than thick epithelia. This relationship may be mediated by structural attributes associated with epithelial cell height. Fungal spores that breached the host’s gut barrier elicited an intensity-dependent hemocyte response that decreased the probability of infection for some Daphnia. Although larger body sizes were associated with increased levels of spore ingestion, larger hosts also had lower frequencies of parasite attack, less penetrable gut barriers, and stronger hemocyte responses. After investigating which mechanisms underlie host susceptibility, we asked: do these four factors contribute equally or asymmetrically to the outcome of infection? An information-theoretic approach revealed that host immune defenses (barriers and immune responses) played the strongest roles in mediating infection outcomes. These two immunological traits may be valuable metrics for linking host susceptibility to the spread of infectious disease.