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  1. ABSTRACT The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is expected to observe galaxies at z > 10 that are presently inaccessible. Here, we use a self-consistent empirical model, the universemachine, to generate mock galaxy catalogues and light-cones over the redshift range z = 0−15. These data include realistic galaxy properties (stellar masses, star formation rates, and UV luminosities), galaxy–halo relationships, and galaxy–galaxy clustering. Mock observables are also provided for different model parameters spanning observational uncertainties at z < 10. We predict that Cycle 1 JWST surveys will very likely detect galaxies with M* > 107 M⊙ and/or M1500 < −17 out to at least z ∼ 13.5. Number density uncertainties at z > 12 expand dramatically, so efforts to detect z > 12 galaxies will provide the most valuable constraints on galaxy formation models. The faint-end slopes of the stellar mass/luminosity functions at a given mass/luminosity threshold steepen as redshift increases. This is because observable galaxies are hosted by haloes in the exponentially falling regime of the halo mass function at high redshifts. Hence, these faint-end slopes are robustly predicted to become shallower below current observable limits (M* < 107 M⊙ or M1500 > −17). For reionization models, extrapolating luminosity functions with amore »constant faint-end slope from M1500 = −17 down to M1500 = −12 gives the most reasonable upper limit for the total UV luminosity and cosmic star formation rate up to z ∼ 12. We compare to three other empirical models and one semi-analytic model, showing that the range of predicted observables from our approach encompasses predictions from other techniques. Public catalogues and light-cones for common fields are available online.« less
  2. We present a new prospective analysis of deep multi-band imaging with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). In this work, we investigate the recovery of high-redshift 5 <   z  <  12 galaxies through extensive image simulations of accepted JWST programs, including the Early Release Science in the EGS field and the Guaranteed Time Observations in the HUDF. We introduced complete samples of ∼300 000 galaxies with stellar masses of log( M * / M ⊙ ) > 6 and redshifts of 0 <   z  <  15, as well as galactic stars, into realistic mock NIRCam, MIRI, and HST images to properly describe the impact of source blending. We extracted the photometry of the detected sources, as in real images, and estimated the physical properties of galaxies through spectral energy distribution fitting. We find that the photometric redshifts are primarily limited by the availability of blue-band and near-infrared medium-band imaging. The stellar masses and star formation rates are recovered within 0.25 and 0.3 dex, respectively, for galaxies with accurate photometric redshifts. Brown dwarfs contaminating the z  >  5 galaxy samples can be reduced to < 0.01 arcmin −2 with a limited impact on galaxy completeness. We investigate multiple high-redshift galaxy selectionmore »techniques and find that the best compromise between completeness and purity at 5 <   z  <  10 using the full redshift posterior probability distributions. In the EGS field, the galaxy completeness remains higher than 50% at magnitudes m UV  <  27.5 and at all redshifts, and the purity is maintained above 80 and 60% at z  ≤ 7 and 10, respectively. The faint-end slope of the galaxy UV luminosity function is recovered with a precision of 0.1–0.25, and the cosmic star formation rate density within 0.1 dex. We argue in favor of additional observing programs covering larger areas to better constrain the bright end.« less
  3. ABSTRACT Galaxy clustering measurements can be used to constrain many aspects of galaxy evolution, including galaxy host halo masses, satellite quenching efficiencies, and merger rates. We simulate JWST galaxy clustering measurements at z ∼ 4–10 by utilizing mock galaxy samples produced by an empirical model, the universemachine. We also adopt the survey footprints and typical depths of the planned joint NIRCam and NIRSpec Guaranteed Time Observation program planned for Cycle 1 to generate realistic JWST survey realizations and to model high-redshift galaxy selection completeness. We find that galaxy clustering will be measured with ≳5σ significance at z ∼ 4–10. Halo mass precisions resulting from Cycle 1 angular clustering measurements will be ∼0.2 dex for faint (−18 ≳ $\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$ ≳ −19) galaxies at z ∼ 4–10 as well as ∼0.3 dex for bright ($\mathit {M}_{\mathrm{UV}}^{ }$ ∼ −20) galaxies at z ∼ 4–7. Dedicated spectroscopic follow-up over ∼150 arcmin2 would improve these precisions by ∼0.1 dex by removing chance projections and low-redshift contaminants. Future JWST observations will therefore provide the first constraints on the stellar–halo mass relation in the epoch of reionization and substantially clarify how this relation evolves at z > 4. We also find that ∼1000 individual satellites will be identifiable at z ∼ 4–8 with JWST, enabling strong tests of satellite quenchingmore »evolution beyond currently available data (z ≲ 2). Finally, we find that JWST observations can measure the evolution of galaxy major merger pair fractions at z ∼ 4–8 with ∼0.1–0.2 dex uncertainties. Such measurements would help determine the relative role of mergers to the build-up of stellar mass into the epoch of reionization.« less