skip to main content
US FlagAn official website of the United States government
dot gov icon
Official websites use .gov
A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
https lock icon
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock ( lock ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

Explore Research Products in the PAR
It may take a few hours for recently added research products to appear in PAR search results.


  • Home
  • Search Results
  • Page 1 of 1

Search for: All records

Award ID contains: 1725798

Note: When clicking on a Digital Object Identifier (DOI) number, you will be taken to an external site maintained by the publisher. Some full text articles may not yet be available without a charge during the embargo (administrative interval).
What is a DOI Number?

Some links on this page may take you to non-federal websites. Their policies may differ from this site.

  1. ; ; (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Abstract The historical trend in the axial dipole is sufficient to reverse the field in less than 2 kyr. Assessing the prospect of an imminent polarity reversal depends on the probability of sustaining the historical trend for long enough to produce a reversal. We use a stochastic model to predict the variability of trends for arbitrary time windows. Our predictions agree well with the trends computed from paleomagnetic models. Applying these predictions to the historical record shows that the current trend is likely due to natural variability. Furthermore, an extrapolation of the current trend for the next 1 to 2 kyr is highly unlikely. Instead, we compute the trend and time window needed to reverse the field with a specified probability. We find that the dipole could reverse in the next 20 kyr with a probability of 2%. 
    more » « less
  2. ; (, Geophysical Research Letters)
    Full Text Available