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Abstract The cold point tropopause, the minimum temperature within the tropical upper troposphere‐lower stratosphere region (UTLS), significantly impacts Earth's climate by influencing the amount of water vapor entering the lower stratosphere. Understanding which mechanisms are most important in setting the cold point temperature and height may help us better predict how it will change in a future warmed climate. In this analysis we evaluate two mechanisms that may influence the cold point—cold point‐overshooting convection and the radiative lofting of thin cirrus near the cold point—during boreal winter by comparing 30‐day global storm‐resolving model (GSRM) simulations from the winter phase of the DYAMOND initiative to satellite observations. GSRMs have explicit deep convection and sufficiently fine grid spacings to simulate convective overshoots and UTLS cirrus, making them promising tools for this purpose. We find that the GSRMs reproduce the observed distribution of cold point‐overshooting convection but do not simulate enough cirrus capable of radiative lofting near the cold point. Both the models and observations show a strong relationship between areas of frequent cold point overshoots and colder cold points, suggesting that cold point‐overshooting convection has a notable influence on the mean cold point. However, we find little evidence that the radiative lofting of cold point cirrus substantially influences the cold point. Cold point‐overshooting convection alone cannot explain all variations in the cold point across different GSRMs or regions; future studies using longer GSRM simulations that consider longer‐term UTLS processes are needed to fully understand what sets the cold point. 

Abstract We describe internal, low‐frequency variability in a 21‐year simulation with a cloud‐resolving model. The model domain is the length of the equatorial Pacific and includes a slab ocean, which permits coherent cycles of sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric convection, and the convectively coupled circulation. The warming phase of the cycle is associated with near‐uniform SST, less organized convection, and sparse low cloud cover, while the cooling phase exhibits strong SST gradients, highly organized convection, and enhanced low cloudiness. Both phases are quasi‐stable but, on long timescales, are ultimately susceptible to instabilities resulting in rapid phase transitions. The internal cycle is leveraged to understand the factors controlling the strength and structure of the tropical overturning circulation and the stratification of the tropical troposphere. The overturning circulation is strongly modulated by convective organization, with SST playing a lesser role. When convection is highly organized, the circulation is weaker and more bottom‐heavy. Alternatively, tropospheric stratification depends on both convective organization and SST, depending on the vertical level. SST‐driven variability dominates aloft while organization‐driven variability dominates at lower levels. A similar pattern is found in ERA5 reanalysis of the equatorial Pacific. The relationship between convective organization and stratification is explicated using a simple entraining plume model. The results highlight the importance of convective organization for tropical variability and lay a foundation for future work using coupled, idealized models that explicitly resolve convection. 

Abstract We present a heuristic model to explain the suppression of deep convection in convection‐resolving models (CRMs) with a small number of grid columns, such as those used in super‐parameterized or multi‐scale modeling framework (MMF) general circulation models (GCM) of the atmosphere. Domains with few grid columns require greater instability to sustain convection because they force a large convective fraction, driving strong compensating subsidence warming. Updraft dilution, which is stronger for reduced horizontal grid spacing, enhances this effect. Thus, suppression of deep convection in CRMs with few grid columns can be reduced by increasing grid spacing. Radiative‐convective equilibrium simulations using standalone CRM simulations with the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) and using GCM‐coupled CRM simulations with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)‐MMF confirm the heuristic model results. 

Abstract Recent advances in computer modeling have spurred the production of several global storm‐resolving models (GSRMs), which explicitly represent atmospheric circulations from convective to global scales. As a result, GSRMs simulate the formation and evolution of tropical cirrus clouds more physically than typical global climate models/general circulation models (GCMs) which use parameterizations to represent deep convection. We analyze the output from nine GSRMs from the DYAMOND initiative, focusing on the second phase of DYAMOND that simulated a period in January–February 2020. This paper is the third in a series investigating tropical cirrus clouds in GSRMs using DYAMOND model output for an intercomparison. In the tropics, models capture the mean outgoing longwave radiation within −5 to 14 W m⁻²of observed climatology, though most models have more convective precipitation over the 40‐day simulation period than observed. While the models represent large‐scale tropical convection with some fidelity, large regional differences in cloud properties and top‐of‐atmosphere radiation fluxes exist. We focus on a region within the Tropical Western Pacific to study the small‐scale features available with the high spatiotemporal resolution of GSRMs. Most models that participated in both phases of DYAMOND capture the seasonal differences between the two phases, yet each model exhibits unique cloud populations that are persistent across seasons. GSRMs even simulate the notoriously difficult‐to‐observe tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cirrus, providing a novel perspective on TTL cirrus even though the models have different cloud characteristics over the short 40‐days simulation. 

Abstract A simple analytical model, the zero‐buoyancy plume (ZBP) model, has been proposed to understand how small‐scale processes such as plume‐environment mixing and evaporation affect the steady‐state structure of the atmosphere. In this study, we refine the ZBP model to achieve self‐consistent analytical solutions for convective mass flux, addressing the inconsistencies in previous solutions. Our refined ZBP model reveals that increasing plume‐environment mixing can increase upper‐troposphere mass flux through two pathways: increased cloud evaporation or reduced atmospheric stability. To validate these findings, we conducted small‐domain convection‐permitting Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium simulations with horizontal resolutions ranging from 4 km to 125 m. As a proxy for plume‐environment mixing strength, the diagnosed entrainment rate increases with finer resolution. Consistent with a previous study, we observed that both anvil cloud fraction and upper‐troposphere mass flux increase with higher resolution. Analysis of the clear‐sky energy balance in the simulations with two different microphysics schemes identified both pathways proposed by the ZBP model. The dominant pathway depends on the relative strengths of evaporation cooling and radiative cooling in the environment. Our work provides a refined simple framework for understanding the interaction between small‐scale convective processes and large‐scale atmospheric structure. 

Abstract Changes in tropical deep convection with global warming are a leading source of uncertainty for future climate projections. A comparison of the responses of active sensor measurements of cloud ice to interannual variability and next-generation global storm-resolving model (also known ask-scale models) simulations to global warming shows similar changes for events with the highest column-integrated ice. The changes reveal that the ice loading decreases outside the most active convection but increases at a rate of several percent per Kelvin surface warming in the most active convection. Disentangling thermodynamic and vertical velocity changes shows that the ice signal is strongly modulated by structural changes of the vertical wind field towards an intensification of strong convective updrafts with warming, suggesting that changes in ice loading are strongly influenced by changes in convective velocities, as well as a path toward extracting information about convective velocities from observations. 

Abstract The Weak Temperature Gradient (WTG) approximation is a popular method used to couple convection in limited‐area domain simulations with large‐scale dynamics. However, several different schemes have been created to implement this approximation, and these different WTG schemes show a wide range of different results in an idealized framework. Our investigation shows that different model behavior is caused by the treatment of the different baroclinic modes by the different WTG schemes. More specifically, we hypothesize that the relative strengths of the baroclinic modes plays a large role in these differences, and show that modifying these schemes such that they treat the baroclinic modes in a similar manner accounts for many of the significant differences observed. 

Abstract Tropical convection that overshoots the cold point tropopause can impact the climate by directly influencing water vapor, temperatures, and thin cirrus in the upper troposphere‐lower stratosphere (UTLS) region. The distribution of cold point overshoots between land and ocean may help determine how the overshoots will affect the UTLS in a changing climate. Using 4 years of satellite and reanalysis data, we test a brightness temperature proxy calibrated by radar/lidar data to identify cold point‐overshooting convection across the global tropics. We find evidence of cold point‐overshooting convection throughout the tropics, though other cirrus above the cold point cover an area 100 times larger than overshooting tops. Cold point‐overshooting convection occurs 30%–40% more often over convectively active land areas than over the warmest oceans. This proxy can be generalized to evaluate the fidelity of cold point overshoots simulated by storm‐resolving models. 

Abstract Cirrus dominate the longwave radiative budget of the tropics. For the first time, the variability in cirrus properties and longwave cloud radiative effects (CREs) that arises from using different microphysical schemes within nudged global storm‐resolving simulations from a single model, is quantified. Nudging allows us to compute radiative biases precisely using coincident satellite measurements and to fix the large‐scale dynamics across our set of simulations to isolate the influence of microphysics. We run 5‐day simulations with four commonly‐used microphysics schemes of varying complexity (SAM1MOM, Thompson, M2005 and P3) and find that the tropical average longwave CRE varies over 20 W m⁻²between schemes. P3 best reproduces observed longwave CRE. M2005 and P3 simulate cirrus with realistic frozen water path but unrealistically high ice crystal number concentrations which commonly hit limiters and lack the variability and dependence on frozen water content seen in aircraft observations. Thompson and SAM1MOM have too little cirrus. 

Abstract Changes in tropical (30 S–30 N) land hydroclimate following CO₂‐induced global warming are organized according to climatological aridity index (AI) and daily soil moisture (SM) percentiles. The transform from geographical space to this novel process‐oriented phase space allows for interpretation of local, daily mechanistic relationships between key hydroclimatic variables in the context of time‐mean and/or global‐mean energetic constraints and the wet‐get‐wetter/dry‐get‐drier paradigm. Results from 16 CMIP models show coherent patterns of change in the AI/SM phase space that are aligned with the established soil‐moisture/evapotranspiration regimes. We introduce an active‐rain regime as a special case of the energy‐limited regime. Rainfall shifts toward larger rain totals in this active‐rain regime, with less rain on other days, resulting in an overall SM reduction. Consequently, the regimes where SM constrains evapotranspiration become more frequently occupied, and corresponding hydroclimatic changes align with the position of the critical SM value in the AI/SM phase space.