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Abstract Species' persistence in increasingly variable climates will depend on resilience against the fitness costs of environmental stochasticity. Most organisms host microbiota that shield against stressors. Here, we test the hypothesis that, by limiting exposure to temporally variable stressors, microbial symbionts reduce hosts' demographic variance. We parameterized stochastic population models using data from a 14‐year symbiont‐removal experiment including seven grass species that hostEpichloëfungal endophytes. Results provide novel evidence that symbiotic benefits arise not only through improved mean fitness, but also through dampened inter‐annual variance. Hosts with “fast” life‐history traits benefited most from symbiont‐mediated demographic buffering. Under current climate conditions, contributions of demographic buffering were modest compared to benefits to mean fitness. However, simulations of increased stochasticity amplified benefits of demographic buffering and made it the more important pathway of host–symbiont mutualism. Microbial‐mediated variance buffering is likely an important, yet cryptic, mechanism of resilience in an increasingly variable world. 

Abstract Mutualism benefits partner species, and theory predicts these partnerships can affect the abundance, diversity, and composition of partner and non‐partner species. We used 16 years of monitoring data to determine the ant partner species of tree cholla cacti (Cylindropuntia imbricata), which reward ants with extrafloral nectar in exchange for anti‐herbivore defense. These long‐term data revealed one dominant ant partner (Liometopum apiculatum) and two less common partners (Crematogaster opuntiaeandForelius pruinosus). We then used short‐term characterization of the terrestrial ant community by pitfall trapping to sample partner and non‐partner ant species across ten plots of varying cactus density. We found that the dominant ant partner tended a higher proportion cacti in plots of higher cactus density, and was also found at higher occurrence within the pitfall traps in higher density plots, suggesting a strong positive feedback that promotes ant partner occurrence where plant partners are available. Despite the strong association and increased partner occurrence, ant community‐wide effects from this mutualism appear limited. Of the common ant species, the occurrence of a single non‐partner ant species was negatively associated with cactus density and with the increased presence ofL. apiculatum. Additionally, the composition and diversity of the ant community in our plots were insensitive to cactus density variation, indicating that positive effects of the mutualism on the dominant ant partner did not have cascading impacts on the ant community. This study provides novel evidence that exclusive mutualisms, even those with a strong positive feedback, may be limited in the scope of their community‐level effects. 

Abstract The effects of climate change on population viability reflect the net influence of potentially diverse responses of individual‐level demographic processes (growth, survival, regeneration) to multiple components of climate. Articulating climate–demography connections can facilitate forecasts of responses to future climate change as well as back‐casts that may reveal how populations responded to historical climate change.We studied climate–demography relationships in the cactusCyclindriopuntia imbricata; previous work indicated that our focal population has high abundance but a negative population growth rate, where deaths exceed births, suggesting that it persists under extinction debt. We parameterized a climate‐dependent integral projection model with data from a 14‐year field study, then back‐casted expected population growth rates since 1900 to test the hypothesis that recent climate change has driven this population into extinction debt.We found clear patterns of climate change in our central New Mexico study region but, contrary to our hypothesis,C. imbricatahas most likely benefitted from recent climate change and is on track to reach replacement‐level population growth within 37 years, or sooner if climate change accelerates. Furthermore, the strongest feature of climate change (a trend towards years that are overall warmer and drier, captured by the first principal component of inter‐annual variation) was not the main driver of population responses. Instead, temporal trends in population growth were dominated by more subtle, seasonal climatic factors with relatively weak signals of recent change (wetter and milder cool seasons, captured by the second and third principal components).Synthesis. Our results highlight the challenges of back‐casting or forecasting population dynamics under climate change, since the most apparent features of climate change may not be the most important drivers of ecological responses. Environmentally explicit demographic models can help meet this challenge, but they must consider the magnitudes of different aspects of climate change alongside the magnitudes of demographic responses to those changes. 

Abstract Heritable symbionts are often observed at intermediate prevalence within host populations, despite expectations that positive fitness feedbacks should drive beneficial symbionts to fixation. Intermediate prevalence may reflect neutral dynamics of symbionts with weak fitness effects, transient dynamics of symbionts trending towards fixation (or elimination), or a stable intermediate outcome determined by the balance of fitness effects and failed symbiont transmission. Theory suggests that these outcomes should depend on symbiont‐conferred demographic effects and vertical transmission efficiency, which may both depend on environmental context.We established experimental populations of winter bent grassAgrostis hyemalisacross a range of prevalence of the heritable fungal endophyteEpichloë amarillans. Using irrigation, we elevated the precipitation for half of the populations, which we hypothesized would weaken the benefits of symbiosis. Across two annual transitions, we assayed 5,485 individuals to determine prevalence and censused 954 individuals for demographic (survival, flowering, reproduction and recruitment) and vertical transmission data. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to infer long‐run equilibria from short‐term changes in symbiont prevalence and estimated demographic vital rates to link individual‐level effects to population‐level outcomes.We found evidence for all three proposed mechanisms for intermediate symbiont prevalence, but the outcome differed qualitatively across years and precipitation treatments. In the first year, symbionts trended towards fixation under drought conditions but drifted neutrally under elevated precipitation. Fixation likely arose from symbiont‐conferred recruitment benefits outweighing reproductive costs under the drought conditions, while elevated precipitation tempered these effects. In the second transition year, we inferred stable intermediate prevalence across both precipitation treatments, which indicated a balance between symbiont conferred recruitment benefits that allowed low‐prevalence populations to increase and imperfect transmission that caused high‐prevalence populations to decrease.Synthesis. We find support for neutral, transient and stable mechanisms underlying symbiont prevalence, indicating that symbiont prevalence is often pushed and pulled in different directions by the composite outcome of symbiont effects on demographic rates and transmission efficiency, and the way in which these processes respond to environmental context. 

Abstract Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long‐standing quest in ecology, with ever‐increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long‐term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to makea priorichoices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess currenta priorichoices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding‐window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis,Frasera speciosa,Cylindriopuntia imbricata, andCryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding‐window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics. 

Abstract Despite a global footprint of shifts in flowering phenology in response to climate change, the reproductive consequences of these shifts are poorly understood. Furthermore, it is unknown whether altered flowering times affect plant population viability.We examine whether climate change‐induced earlier flowering has consequences for population persistence by incorporating reproductive losses from frost damage (a risk of early flowering) into population models of a subalpine sunflower (Helianthella quinquenervis). Using long‐term demographic data for three populations that span the species’ elevation range (8–15 years, depending on the population), we first examine how snowmelt date affects plant vital rates. To verify vital rate responses to snowmelt date experimentally, we manipulate snowmelt date with a snow removal experiment at one population. Finally, we construct stochastic population projection models and Life Table Response Experiments for each population.We find that populations decline (λ_s < 1) as snowmelt dates become earlier. Frost damage to flower buds, a consequence of climate change‐induced earlier flowering, does not contribute strongly to population declines. Instead, we find evidence that negative effects on survival, likely due to increased drought risk during longer growing seasons, drive projected population declines under earlier snowmelt dates.Synthesis.Shifts in flowering phenology are a conspicuous and important aspect of biological responses to climate change, but here we show that the phenology of reproductive events can be unreliable measures of threats to population persistence, even when earlier flowering is associated with substantial reproductive losses. Evidence for shifts in reproductive phenology, along with scarcer evidence that these shifts actually influence reproductive success, are valuable but can paint an incomplete and even misleading picture of plant population responses to climate change. 

This project was designed to understand the demographic effects of vertically transmitted fungal endophytes (Epichloë spp.) on their grass hosts. The experiment includes seven host-symbiont taxonomic pairs: Agrostis perennans - E. amarillans, Elymus villosus - E. elymi, Elymus virginicus - E. elymi or EviTG-1, Festuca subverticillata - E. starrii, Poa alsodes - E. alsodes, Poa sylvestris - E. PsyTG-1, Schedonorus arundinaceus - E. coenophiala. Experimental plots were established at the Indiana University Lilly-Dickey Woods Research and Teaching Preserve in south-central Indiana, USA in 2007. For each species, 5-10 plots were planted with naturally symbiotic (S+) hosts, and 5-10 plots were plated with hosts that were disinfected of fungal endophytes by heat treatment (S-). Over 15 years (2007-2022) we collected demographic data on the survival, growth, reproduction, and recruitment of all plants in all plots. Beginning in 2018 we also collected data on the locations of all plants in every plot. 

Interactions between plants and microbes have important influences on evolutionary processes, population dynamics, community structure, and ecosystem function. We review the literature to document how climate change may disrupt these ecological interactions and develop a conceptual framework to integrate the pathways of plant-microbe responses to climate over different scales in space and time. We then create a blueprint to aid generalization that categorizes climate effects into changes in the context dependency of plant-microbe pairs, temporal mismatches and altered feedbacks over time, or spatial mismatches that accompany species range shifts. We pair a new graphical model of how plant-microbe interactions influence resistance to climate change with a statistical approach to predictthe consequences of increasing variability in climate. Finally, we suggest pathways through which plant-microbe interactions can affect resilience during recovery from climate disruption. Throughout, we take a forward-looking perspective, highlighting knowledge gaps and directions for future research.