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  1. Abstract

    The sub‐auroral polarization stream (SAPS) is a region of westward high velocity plasma convection equatorward of the auroral oval that plays an important role in mid‐latitude space weather dynamics. In this study, we present observations of SAPS flows extending across the North American sector observed during the recovery phase of a minor geomagnetic storm. A resurgence in substorm activity drove a new set of field‐aligned currents (FACs) into the ionosphere, initiating the SAPS. An upward FAC system is the most prominent feature spreading across most SAPS local times, except near dusk, where a downward current system is pronounced. The location of SAPS flows remained relatively constant, firmly inside the trough, independent of the variability in the location and intensity of the FACs. The SAPS flows were sustained even after the FACs weakened and retreated polewards with a decline in geomagnetic activity. The observations indicate that the mid‐latitude trough plays a crucial role in determining the location of the SAPS and that SAPS flows can be sustained even after the magnetospheric driver has weakened.

     
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  2. Abstract

    In this study we have used 7 years (2011–2017) of quiet (Kp ≤ 2+) to moderately disturbed (Kp = 3) time nightside line‐of‐sight measurements from six midlatitude Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars in the U.S. continent to characterize the subauroral convection in terms of magnetic latitude, magnetic local time, month, season, Kp, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) clock angle. Our results show that (1) the quiet time (Kp ≤ 2+) subauroral flows are predominantly westward (20–90 m/s) in all months and become meridional (−20–20 m/s) near dawn and dusk, with the flows being the strongest and most structured in December and January. (2) The Kp dependency is prominent in all seasons such that for higher Kp the premidnight westward flow intensifies and the postmidnight eastward flow starts to emerge. (3) Sorting by IMF clock angle shows Bz+/Bz− features consistent with lower/higher Kp conditions, as expected, but also shows distinct differences that are associated with By sign. (4) There is a pronounced latitudinal variation in the zonal flow speed between 18 and 2 magnetic local time in winter (November to February) that exists under all IMF conditions but is most pronounced under IMF Bz− and higher Kp. Our analysis suggests that the quiet time subauroral flows are due to the combined effects of solar wind/magnetosphere coupling leading to penetration electric field and the neutral wind dynamo with the ionospheric conductivity modulating their relative dominance.

     
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  3. Abstract

    The auroral substorm has been extensively studied over the last six decades. However, our understanding of its driving mechanisms is still limited and so is our ability to accurately forecast its onset. In this study, we present the first deep learning‐based approach to predict the onset of a magnetic substorm, defined as the signature of the auroral electrojets in ground magnetometer measurements. Specifically, we use a time history of solar wind speed (Vx), proton number density, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components as inputs to forecast the occurrence probability of an onset over the next 1 hr. The model has been trained and tested on a data set derived from the SuperMAG list of magnetic substorm onsets and can correctly identify substorms ∼75% of the time. In contrast, an earlier prediction algorithm correctly identifies ∼21% of the substorms in the same data set. Our model's ability to forecast substorm onsets based on solar wind and IMF inputs prior to the actual onset time, and the trend observed in IMFBzprior to onset together suggest that a majority of the substorms may not be externally triggered by northward turnings of IMF. Furthermore, we find that IMFBzandVxhave the most significant influence on model performance. Finally, principal component analysis shows a significant degree of overlap in the solar wind and IMF parameters prior to both substorm and nonsubstorm intervals, suggesting that solar wind and IMF alone may not be sufficient to forecast all substorms, and preconditioning of the magnetotail may be an important factor.

     
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