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Land-use transition is one of the most profound human-induced alterations of the Earth’s system. It can support better land management and decision-making for increasing the yield of food production to fulfill the food needs in a specific area. However, modeling land-use change involves the complexity of human drivers and natural or environmental constraints. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) for land use transitions using critical indicators that contribute to food deserts. The model’s performance was evaluated using Guilford County, North Carolina, as a case study. The modeling inputs include land covers, climate variability (rainfall and temperature), soil quality, land-use-related policies, and population growth. Studying the interrelationships between these factors can improve the development of effective land-use policies and help responsible agencies and policymakers plan accordingly to improve food security. The agent-based model illustrates how and when individuals or communities could make specific land-cover transitions to fulfill the community’s food needs. The results indicate that the agent-based model could effectively monitor land use and environmental changes to visualize potential risks over time and help the affected communities plan accordingly. 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has utilized the term food desert to highlight regions within low-income communities located far from fresh and healthy sources of food such as supermarkets and farmers markets. Most research on food deserts has revolved around urban areas, which bring about other considerations such as sidewalks, pedestrian access, rideshares, and public transportation, typically not viable options in rural regions. Rural food insecurity is also a problem in North Carolina. Utilizing data provided by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Food Access Atlas, this paper explored if and to what extent rural food insecurity exists, with findings showing 1) a higher percentage of people living in rural areas live in food insecurity compared to non-rural areas 2) counties in the eastern part of the state are more prone to food insecurity and 3) racial, ethnic minorities, as well as the young (age under 17), are more subjected to food insecurity compared to the majority and older cohorts. This research highlights the need for a rigorous and comprehensive understanding of rural food security that transcends the economic, cultural, and sociological reasons of differential food access with long-term health outcomes that have multi-generational consequences. 

Food desert communities face persistent barriers in accessing affordable fresh and healthy foods, particularly for the underserved and limited-resourced minority population. This research brief proposes an integrated design concept examining human-environment dynamics of food deserts to identify strategies that would provide effective planning to prevent, prepare for, or respond to disruptive events such as natural disasters or pandemics in the future. The North Carolina example we describe identifies the potential overlapping areas between food deserts and number of COVID-19 cases to demonstrate how an unpredictable event could exacerbate public health in food desert communities to a greater extent than in communities with better food access, availability, and accessibility. The improved understanding of food systems could help in addressing unprecedented challenges such as those due to the COVID-19 crisis. 

Abstract. This paper investigates the spatial differences in fresh vegetable spending in Guilford County, North Carolina. We create a geo-coded spatial-temporal database for both human factors and natural factors to understand why food deserts have become a serious issue in a county with many farming activities. We find that residents living in food deserts do not buy enough fresh vegetables compared with their counterparts, even when they are shopping at full-service grocery stores. Social-economic factors are most sensitive and are important determinants of fresh food demand. Using an agent-based toy model, we find that fresh vegetable demand in each census tract in Guilford County varies to a large extent. The results suggest that the formation of food deserts may root from the demand side.