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Abstract Previous findings show that large-scale atmospheric circulation plays an important role in driving Arctic sea ice variability from synoptic to seasonal time scales. While some circulation patterns responsible for Barents–Kara sea ice changes have been identified in previous works, the most important patterns and the role of their persistence remain unclear. Our study uses self-organizing maps to identify nine high-latitude circulation patterns responsible for day-to-day Barents–Kara sea ice changes. Circulation patterns with a high pressure center over the Urals (Scandinavia) and a low pressure center over Iceland (Greenland) are found to be the most important for Barents–Kara sea ice loss. Their opposite-phase counterparts are found to be the most important for sea ice growth. The persistence of these circulation patterns helps explain sea ice variability from synoptic to seasonal time scales. We further use sea ice models forced by observed atmospheric fields (including the surface circulation and temperature) to reproduce observed sea ice variability and diagnose the role of atmosphere-driven thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Results show that thermodynamic and dynamic processes similarly contribute to Barents–Kara sea ice concentration changes on synoptic time scales via circulation. On seasonal time scales, thermodynamic processes seem to play a stronger role than dynamic processes. Overall, our study highlights the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation, its persistence, and varying physical processes in shaping sea ice variability across multiple time scales, which has implications for seasonal sea ice prediction. Significance StatementUnderstanding what processes lead to Arctic sea ice changes is important due to their significant impacts on the ecosystem, weather, and shipping, and hence our society. A well-known process that causes sea ice changes is atmospheric circulation variability. We further pin down what circulation patterns and underlying mechanisms matter. We identify multiple circulation patterns responsible for sea ice loss and growth to different extents. We find that the circulation can cause sea ice loss by mechanically pushing sea ice northward and bringing warm and moist air to melt sea ice. The two processes are similarly important. Our study advances understanding of the Arctic sea ice variability with important implications for Arctic sea ice prediction. 

Abstract Cold winters over Eurasia often coincide with warm winters in the Arctic, which has become known as the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasia” pattern. The extent to which this observed correlation is indicative of a causal response to sea ice loss is debated. Here, using large multimodel ensembles of coordinated experiments, we find that the Eurasian temperature response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak compared to internal variability and is not robust across climate models. We show that Eurasian cooling is driven by tropospheric and stratospheric circulation changes in response to sea ice loss but is counteracted by tropospheric thermodynamical warming, as the local warming induced by sea ice loss spreads into the midlatitudes by eddy advection. Although opposing effects of thermodynamical warming and dynamical cooling are found robustly across different models or different sea ice perturbations, their net effect varies in sign and magnitude across the models, resulting in diverse model temperature responses over Eurasia. The contributions from both tropospheric dynamics and thermodynamics show substantial intermodel spread. Although some of this spread in the Eurasian winter temperature response to sea ice loss may stem from model uncertainty, even with several hundred ensemble members, it is challenging to isolate model differences in the forced response from internal variability. 

Abstract Anticipated future reductions in aerosol emissions are expected to accelerate warming and substantially change precipitation characteristics. Therefore, it is vital to identify the existing patterns and possible future pathways of anthropogenic aerosol reductions. The COVID-19 pandemic prompted abrupt, global declines in transportation and industrial activities, providing opportunities to study the aerosol effects of pandemic-driven emissions changes. Here, measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from two satellite instruments were used to characterize aerosol burdens throughout 2020 in four Northern Hemisphere source regions (Eastern & Central China, the United States, India, and Europe). In most regions, record-low measures of AOD persisted beyond the earliest ‘lockdown’ periods of the pandemic. Record-low values were most concentrated during the boreal spring and summer months, when 56% to 72% of sampled months showed record-low AOD values for their respective regions. However, in India and Eastern & Central China, the COVID-19 AOD signature was eclipsed by sources of natural variability (dust) and a multi-year trend, respectively. In the United States and Europe, a likely COVID-19 signal peaks in the summer of 2020, contributing as much as −.01 to −.03 AOD units to observed anomalies. 

Abstract We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events. 

Abstract Trace gases and aerosols play an important role in Arctic chemistry and climate. As most Arctic tracers and aerosols are transported from midlatitude source regions, long‐range transport into the Arctic is one of the key factors to understand the current and future states of Arctic climate. While previous studies have investigated the airmass fraction and transit time distribution in the Arctic, the actual transport pathways and their underlying dynamics and efficiencies are yet to be understood. In this study, we implement a large ensemble of idealized tagged pulse passive tracers in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 5 to identify and analyze summertime transport pathways from different Northern Hemisphere surface regions into the Arctic. Three different transport pathways are identified as those associated with fast, intermediate and slow time scales. Midlatitude tracers can be transported into the Arctic in the troposphere via the fast transport pathway (∼8 days), which moves tracers northward from the source region mainly through transient eddies. For the intermediate transport pathway, which happens on 1–3 weeks’ time scales, midlatitude tracers are first zonally transported by the jet stream, and then advected northward into the Arctic over Alaska and northern North Atlantic. Tropical and subtropical tracers are transported into the Arctic lower stratosphere via the slow transport pathway (1–3 months), as the tracers are lifted upward into the tropical and subtropical lower stratosphere, and then transported into the Arctic following the isentropic surfaces.