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Abstract Adjusting relative allocation between sexual and clonal reproduction is part of how plants respond to a variable environment, but we know little about how the allocation strategies of plant populations vary over time as abiotic conditions change. We studied correlations between sexual and clonal reproduction using 23 years of data on the clonal salt marsh plantSpartina alternifloraat eight sites in coastal Georgia, USA. The relationship between sexual reproduction and clonal reproduction varied over time. Within years, sexual reproduction was negatively related to clonal reproduction. These relationships were stronger in cooler years and weaker in warmer years, with slopes ranging from −0.202 in cool years to −0.013 in warm years. The trade‐offs were also affected by river discharge, with stronger (more negative) slopes as river discharge increased. In a random forest model, temperature had the greatest influence (58%) on the relationships compared to other global change variables (precipitation, river discharge, sea level, and tide range). Overall, our study demonstrated that climate warming gradually disrupts the negative correlation in allocation between reproductive modes in a common salt marsh plant, shifting the affected populations toward a near‐total reliance on clonal reproduction, potentially limiting their spread and the generation of new genotypes. 

Abstract We present new chronologies that inform the timing and tempo of shell ring and shell mound construction on the South Atlantic Bight. Our project combines recently acquired dates with legacy radiocarbon dates from over 25 rings and mounds to provide a higher-resolution chronology regarding the occupation and formation of this larger landscape of the earliest fishing villages along the East Coast of the United States. We resolve the ordering and timing of occupation of these rings and mounds through Bayesian statistical modeling. These new models historicize and contextualize these shell rings in ways previously impossible. Specifically, our new chronologies of these villages indicate that the earliest villages were established prior to the invention of pottery. The early period of village establishment evidences isolated village rings, whereas later periods seem to have more villages, but these appear to have been relocated to other areas and/or islands over time. Shell mounds are fewer in number, are spread throughout the time period, and may represent special purpose sites compared to shell-rings. Once villages spread, they quickly adopted new technologies (i.e., pottery) and created new institutions and practiced village relocation, which allowed this way of life to persist for more than a thousand years. 

Abstract Salt marshes are vital but vulnerable ecosystems. However, our understanding of disturbance‐induced dieback and recovery processes in multi‐specific marshes remains limited. This study utilized remote sensing data (2001–2021) to analyze a dieback event and subsequent recovery in the multi‐specific San Felice marsh within the Venice lagoon, Italy. A significant dieback ofSpartina maritima(Spartina) was identified in 2003, likely triggered by a drought event and heat stress. This resulted in a conversion of 4.6 ha of marsh predominantly colonized bySpartina(fractional cover ofSpartina> 50%) in 2001 to bare soil in 2003. These bare areas were then gradually encroached by vegetation, indicating the occurrence of the recovery. Despite gradually gaining ground,Spartinaonly dominated 6.4 ha marshes in 2021, significantly lower than its pre‐dieback area (21.3 ha). However, other species also encroached on the dieback area, such that the aboveground biomass returned to pre‐dieback levels, indicating that the shift in marsh species composition that occurred as a consequence of the event compensated for this ecosystem service. Vegetation recovery, spanning from 1 yr to more than 18 yr, was found to be slowest in areas of lowest elevation. This study provides evidence that dieback and recovery can modify the species composition of multi‐specific marshes over decades. These insights contribute to a better understanding of marsh resilience to drought and elevated temperature, both of which are likely to increase in the future. 

Abstract Understanding how climate and local stressors interact is paramount for predicting future ecosystem structure. The effects of multiple stressors are often examined in small‐scale and short‐term field experiments, limiting understanding of the spatial and temporal generality of the findings. Using a 22‐year observational dataset of plant and grazer abundance in a southeastern US salt marsh, we analyzed how changes in drought and grazer density combined to affect plant biomass. We found: (1) increased drought severity and higher snail density both correlated with lower plant biomass; (2) drought and snail effects interacted additively; and, (3) snail effects had a threshold, with additive top‐down effects only occurring when snails were present at high densities. These results suggest that the emergence of multiple stressor effects can be density dependent, and they validate short‐term experimental evidence that consumers can augment environmental stress. These findings have important implications for predicting future ecosystem structure and managing natural ecosystems. 

Abstract Large datasets, combined with modeling techniques, provide a quantitative way to estimate when known archaeological sites will be impacted by climatological changes. With over 4,000 archaeological sites recorded on the coast of Georgia, USA, the state provides an ideal opportunity to compare methods. Here, we compare the popular passive “bathtub” modeling with the dynamic Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) combined with the Marshes Equilibrium Model (MEM). The goal of this effort is to evaluate prior modeling and test the benefits of more detailed ecological modeling in assessing site loss. Our findings indicate that although rough counts of archaeological sites destroyed by sea-level rise (SLR) are similar in all approaches, using the latter two methods provides critical information needed in prioritizing site studies and documentation before irrevocable damages occur. Our results indicate that within the next 80 years, approximately 40% of Georgia's coastal sites will undergo a loss of archaeological context due to wetlands shifting from dry ecological zones to transitional marshlands or submerged estuaries and swamps. 

Abstract Circular shell rings along the South Atlantic coast of the United States are vestiges of the earliest sedentary villages in North America, dating to 4500–3000 BP. However, little is known about when Indigenous communities began constructing these shell-ring villages. This article presents data from the Hokfv-Mocvse Shell Ring on Ossabaw Island, Georgia. Although shell rings are often associated with the earliest ceramics in North America, no ceramics were encountered in our excavations at Hokfv-Mocvse, and the only materials recovered were projectile points similar to points found over 300 km inland. Bayesian modeling of radiocarbon dates indicates that the ring was occupied between 5090 and 4735 cal BP (95% confidence), making it the earliest dated shell ring in the region. Additionally, shell geochemistry and oyster paleobiology data suggest that inhabitants were living at the ring year-round and had established institutions at that time to manage oyster fisheries sustainably. Hokfv-Mocvse therefore provides evidence for Indigenous people settling in year-round villages and adapting to coastal environments in the region centuries before the adoption of pottery. The establishment of villages marks a visible archaeological shift toward settling down and occupying island ecosystems on a more permanent basis and in larger numbers than ever before in the region. 

IntroductionDissolved organic matter (DOM) composition varies over space and time, with a multitude of factors driving the presence or absence of each compound found in the complex DOM mixture. Compounds ubiquitously present across a wide range of river systems (hereafter termed core compounds) may differ in chemical composition and reactivity from compounds present in only a few settings (hereafter termed satellite compounds). Here, we investigated the spatial patterns in DOM molecular formulae presence (occupancy) in surface water and sediments across 97 river corridors at a continental scale using the “Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemical Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems—WHONDRS” research consortium. MethodsWe used a novel data-driven approach to identify core and satellite compounds and compared their molecular properties identified with Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). ResultsWe found that core compounds clustered around intermediate hydrogen/carbon and oxygen/carbon ratios across both sediment and surface water samples, whereas the satellite compounds varied widely in their elemental composition. Within surface water samples, core compounds were dominated by lignin-like formulae, whereas protein-like formulae dominated the core pool in sediment samples. In contrast, satellite molecular formulae were more evenly distributed between compound classes in both sediment and water molecules. Core compounds found in both sediment and water exhibited lower molecular mass, lower oxidation state, and a higher degree of aromaticity, and were inferred to be more persistent than global satellite compounds. Higher putative biochemical transformations were found in core than satellite compounds, suggesting that the core pool was more processed. DiscussionThe observed differences in chemical properties of core and satellite compounds point to potential differences in their sources and contribution to DOM processing in river corridors. Overall, our work points to the potential of data-driven approaches separating rare and common compounds to reduce some of the complexity inherent in studying riverine DOM. 

Abstract Predators regulate communities through top‐down control in many ecosystems. Because most studies of top‐down control last less than a year and focus on only a subset of the community, they may miss predator effects that manifest at longer timescales or across whole food webs. In southeastern US salt marshes, short‐term and small‐scale experiments indicate that nektonic predators (e.g., blue crab, fish, terrapins) facilitate the foundational grass,Spartina alterniflora, by consuming herbivorous snails and crabs. To test both how nekton affect marsh processes when the entire animal community is present, and how prior results scale over time, we conducted a 3‐year nekton exclusion experiment in a Georgia salt marsh using replicated 19.6 m²plots. Our nekton exclusions increased densities of plant‐grazing snails and juvenile deposit‐feeding fiddler crab and, in Year 2, reduced predation on tethered juvenile snails, indicating that nektonic predators control these key macroinvertebrates. However, in Year 3, densities of mesopredatory benthic mud crabs increased threefold in nekton exclusions, erasing the tethered snails' predation refuge. Nekton exclusion had no effect onSpartinabiomass, likely because the observed mesopredator release suppressed grazing snail densities and elevated densities of fiddler crabs, whose burrowing alleviates soil stresses. Structural equation modeling supported the hypotheses that nektonic predators and mesopredators control invertebrate communities, with nektonic predators having stronger total effects onSpartinathan mud crabs by controlling densities of species that both suppress (grazers) and facilitate (fiddler crabs) plant growth. These findings highlight that salt marshes can be resilient to multiyear reductions in nektonic predators if mesopredators are present and that multiple pathways of trophic control manifest in different ways over time to mediate community dynamics. These results highlight that larger scale and longer‐term experiments can illuminate community dynamics not previously understood, even in well‐studied ecosystems such as salt marshes. 

Abstract The Belowground Ecosystem Resiliency Model (BERM) is a geoinformatics tool that was developed to predict belowground biomass (BGB) ofSpartina alterniflorain salt marshes based on remote sensing of aboveground characteristics and other readily available hydrologic, climatic, and physical data. We sought to characterize variation inS. alternifloraBGB over both temporal and spatial gradients through extensive marsh field observations in coastal Georgia, USA, to quantify their relationship with a suite of predictor variables, and to use these results to improve performance and expand the parameter space of BERM. We conducted pairwise comparisons ofS. alternifloragrowth metrics measured at nine sites over 3–8 years and found that BGB grouped by site differed in 69% of comparisons, while only in 21% when grouped by year. This suggests that BGB varies more spatially than temporally. We used the BERM machine learning algorithms to evaluate how variables relating to biological, climatic, hydrologic, and physical attributes covaried with these BGB observations. Flooding frequency and intensity were most influential in predicting BGB, with predictor variables related to hydrology composing 61% of the total feature importance in the BERM framework. When we used this expanded calibration dataset and associated predictors to advance BERM, model error was reduced from a normalized root‐mean‐square error of 13.0%–9.4% in comparison with the original BERM formulation. This reflects both an improvement in predictive performance and an expansion in conditions for potential model application. Finally, we used regression commonality analysis to show that model estimates reflected the spatiotemporal structure of BGB variation observed in field measurements. These results can help guide future data collection efforts to describe landscape‐scale BGB trends. The advanced BERM is a robust tool that can characterizeS. alternifloraproductivity and resilience over broad spatial and temporal scales. 

Abstract People often modify the shoreline to mitigate erosion and protect property from storm impacts. The 2 main approaches to modification are gray infrastructure (e.g., bulkheads and seawalls) and natural or green infrastructure (NI) (e.g., living shorelines). Gray infrastructure is still more often used for coastal protection than NI, despite having more detrimental effects on ecosystem parameters, such as biodiversity. We assessed the impact of gray infrastructure on biodiversity and whether the adoption of NI can mitigate its loss. We examined the literature to quantify the relationship of gray infrastructure and NI to biodiversity and developed a model with temporal geospatial data on ecosystem distribution and shoreline modification to project future shoreline modification for our study location, coastal Georgia (United States). We applied the literature‐derived empirical relationships of infrastructure effects on biodiversity to the shoreline modification projections to predict change in biodiversity under different NI versus gray infrastructure scenarios. For our study area, which is dominated by marshes and use of gray infrastructure, when just under half of all new coastal infrastructure was to be NI, previous losses of biodiversity from gray infrastructure could be mitigated by 2100 (net change of biodiversity of +0.14%, 95% confidence interval −0.10% to +0.39%). As biodiversity continues to decline from human impacts, it is increasingly imperative to minimize negative impacts when possible. We therefore suggest policy and the permitting process be changed to promote the adoption of NI.