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Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is quite challenging due to multiple competing processes among the TC internal dynamics and the environment. Most previous studies have evaluated the environmental effects on TC intensity change from both internal dynamics and external influence. This study quantifies the environmental effects on TC intensity change using a simple dynamically based dynamical system (DBDS) model recently developed. In this simple model, the environmental effects are uniquely represented by a ventilation parameterB, which can be expressed as multiplicative of individual ventilation parameters of the corresponding environmental effects. Their individual ventilation parameters imply their relative importance to the bulk environmental ventilation effect and thus to the TC intensity change. Six environmental factors known to affect TC intensity change are evaluated in the DBDS model using machine learning approaches with the best track data for TCs over the North Atlantic, central, eastern, and western North Pacific and the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) dataset during 1982–2021. Results show that the deep-layer vertical wind shear (VWS) is the dominant ventilation factor to reduce the intrinsic TC intensification rate or to drive the TC weakening, with its ventilation parameter ranging between 0.5 and 0.8 when environmental VWS between 200 and 850 hPa is larger than 8 m s⁻¹. Other environmental factors are generally secondary, with their respective ventilation parameters over 0.8. An interesting result is the strong dependence of the environmental effects on the stage of TC development.

Previous studies have investigated how the environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) may trigger the asymmetric structure in an initially axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex and how TC intensity changes in response. In this study, the possible effect of the initial vortex asymmetric structure on the TC intensity change in response to an imposed environmental VWS is investigated based on idealized full‐physics model simulations. Results show that the effect of the asymmetric structure in the initial TC vortex can either enhance or suppress the initial weakening of the TC in response to the imposed environmental VWS. When the initial asymmetric structure is in phase of the VWS‐induced asymmetric structure, the TC weakening will be enhanced and vice versa. Our finding calls for realistic representation of initial TC asymmetric structure in numerical weather prediction models and observations to better resolve the asymmetric structure in TCs.

This study revisits the issue of why tropical cyclones (TCs) develop more rapidly at lower latitudes, using ensemble axisymmetric numerical simulations and energy diagnostics based on the isentropic analysis, with the focus on the relative importance of the outflow-layer and boundary layer inertial stabilities to TC intensification and energy cycle. Results show that although lowering the outflow-layer Coriolis parameter and thus inertial stability can slightly strengthen the outflow, it does not affect the simulated TC development, whereas lowering the boundary layer Coriolis parameter largely enhances the secondary circulation and TC intensification as in the experiment with a reduced Coriolis parameter throughout the model atmosphere. This suggests that TC outflow is more likely a passive result of the convergent inflow in the boundary layer and convective updraft in the eyewall. The boundary layer inertial stability is found to control the convergent inflow in the boundary layer and depth of convection in the eyewall and thus the temperature of the energy sink in the TC heat engine, which determines the efficiency and overall mechanical output of the heat engine and thus TC intensification. It is also shown that the hypothesized isothermal and adiabatic compression legs at the downstream end of the outflow in the classical Carnot cycle are not supported in the thermodynamic cycle of the simulated TCs, implying that the hypothesized classical TC Carnot cycle is not closed. It is the theoretical maximum work of the heat engine, not the energy expenditure following the outflow downstream, that determines the mechanical work used to intensify a TC.

Several key issues in the simple time-dependent theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification developed in recent years remain, including the lack of a closure for the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at sea surface temperature (SST) under the eyewall and the definition of environmental conditions, such as the boundary layer enthalpy in TC environment and the TC outflow-layer temperature. In this study, some refinements to the most recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification have been accomplished to resolve those issues. The first is the construction of a functional relationship between the surface pressure under the eyewall and the TC intensity, which is derived using the cyclostrophic wind balance and calibrated using full-physics axisymmetric model simulations. The second is the definition of TC environment that explicitly includes the air–sea temperature difference. The third is the TC outflow-layer temperature parameterized as a linear function of SST based on global reanalysis data. With these refinements, the updated time-dependent theory becomes self-contained and can give both the intensity-dependent TC intensification rate (IR) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) under given environmental thermodynamic conditions. It is shown that the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at SST can lead to an increase in the TC MPI and IR by about half of that induced by dissipative heating due to surface friction. Results also show that both MPI and IR increase with increasing SST, surface enthalpy exchange coefficient, environmental air–sea temperature difference, and decreasing environmental boundary layer relative humidity, but the maximum IR is insensitive to surface drag coefficient.

Recent studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclone (TC) intensity to horizontal diffusion in numerical models. It is unclear whether such sensitivity comes from the horizontal diffusion in or above the boundary layer. To address this issue, both an Ooyama-type model and a full-physics model are used to conduct sensitivity experiments with reduced or enlarged horizontal mixing length (l_h) in the boundary layer and/or in the free atmosphere. Results from both models show that enlarging (reducing)l_hthroughout the model domain considerably reduces (increases) the TC intensification rate and quasi-steady intensity. A new finding is that changingl_habove the boundary layer imposes a much greater influence than that in the boundary layer. Largel_habove the boundary layer is found to effectively reduce the radial gradient of tangential wind inside the radius of maximum tangential wind and thus the inward flux of absolute vorticity, reducing the positive tangential wind tendency and the TC intensification rate and the steady-state intensity. In contrast, although largerl_hin the boundary layer reduces the boundary layer tangential wind tendency, it also leads to the more inward-penetrated inflow and thus enhances the inward flux of absolute vorticity, which offsets part of the direct negative contribution by horizontal diffusion, making the net change in tangential wind tendency not obvious. Results from three-dimensional simulations also show that the resolved eddies contribute negatively to TC spinup whenl_his small, while its effect weakens whenl_his enhanced either in or above the boundary layer.

Wave breaking under strong wind conditions in tropical cyclones (TCs) can generate sea spray droplets, which, during their suspension in air, release sensible heat due to the air‐sea temperature difference while absorb sensible heat from the environment when they evaporate and release latent heat to the environment. Since the spray mass flux is a function of surface drag coefficient (C_D), the effect of spray on TC evolution should depends on C_Dparameterization, while this has not been addressed so far. This study examines the effects of sea spray on the simulated TC evolution with two different C_Dparameterizations (the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) default scheme and the Donelan scheme). Results show that during the primary intensification stage, the TC with spray effect becomes stronger than that without spray when the WRF C_Dscheme is used, but becomes weaker when the Donelan C_Dscheme is used. This occurs because C_Dis maximum outside the radius of maximum wind (RMW) with the Donelan scheme, which produces relatively large spray‐mediated latent heat flux outside the RMW, which is unfavorable for TC intensification. The difference is enlarged by a feedback between spray and TC intensification involving the inertial stability and surface friction‐induced radial inflow. However, in the mature stage, the simulated TCs with spray become stronger no matter which C_Dscheme is used. In addition, the spray effect on the TC inner‐core size evolution also weakly depends on the drag parameterization. When C_Dis relatively greater outside the RMW, the inclusion of the spray effect would lead to the inner‐core size increase.

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity is important but challenging. In this study, a physically based algebraic decay model for predicting TC weakening after landfall over China is introduced, which assumes the TC weakening rate is proportional to the square of the TC maximum near‐surface wind speed. In this algebraic decay model, a decay parameter including the topographic effect by modifying the surface drag coefficient with the normalized terrain height is determined by minimizing the forecast errors for all landfalling TCs over mainland China during 1980–2020. Results show that the algebraic decay model with topographic effect considered performs better than the commonly used exponential decay model for TCs after landfall over mainland China, especially when TCs move further inland. This new model has a time‐dependent decay parameter along the TC track due to the topographic variation, which is different from the previous exponential decay model.

This study examines the possible dependence of tropical cyclone (TC) development on the initial winds inside the radius of maximum wind (RMW) through ensemble axisymmetric numerical simulations. Results demonstrate that the vortex with higher initial winds inside the RMW favor larger surface enthalpy flux and thus faster moistening and earlier convective organization in the inner core, significantly shortening the initial spinup period. Higher inertial stability associated with higher winds inside the RMW implies higher eyewall‐heating efficiency, giving rise to higher intensification rate in the subsequent intensification stage but little difference in the steady‐state intensity. The results are confirmed with several sensitivity experiments using different model parameters and three‐dimensional simulations using the same model and configuration. The findings from this study strongly suggest that the realistic representation of the initial inner‐core winds is key to skillful TC intensity forecasts by numerical models and routine high‐resolution observations of the inner‐core wind structure are urged for improving TC intensity forecasts.

In this study, the boundary layer tangential wind budget equation following the radius of maximum wind, together with an assumed thermodynamical quasi-equilibrium boundary layer, is used to derive a new equation for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification rate (IR). A TC is assumed to be axisymmetric in thermal-wind balance, with eyewall convection coming into moist slantwise neutrality in the free atmosphere above the boundary layer as the storm intensifies, as found recently based on idealized numerical simulations. An ad hoc parameter is introduced to measure the degree of congruence of the absolute angular momentum and the entropy surfaces. The new IR equation is evaluated using results from idealized ensemble full-physics axisymmetric numerical simulations. Results show that the new IR equation can reproduce the time evolution of the simulated TC intensity. The new IR equation indicates a strong dependence of IR on both TC intensity and the corresponding maximum potential intensity (MPI). A new finding is the dependence of TC IR on the square of the MPI in terms of the near-surface wind speed for any given relative intensity. Results from some numerical integrations of the new IR equation also suggest the finite-amplitude nature of TC genesis. In addition, the new IR theory is also supported by some preliminary results based on best-track TC data over the North Atlantic Ocean and eastern and western North Pacific Ocean. As compared with the available time-dependent theories of TC intensification, the new IR equation can provide a realistic intensity-dependent IR during weak intensity stage as seen in observations.

A ~14‐hr long‐lived spiral rainband in Typhoon Longwang (2005) produced catastrophic rainfall in Fujian Province of China on 2 October 2005. In this study, the effects of terrain and landmass near Fujian on the structure and propagation of this rainband are investigated through high‐resolution numerical simulations. Results show that although the terrain and landmass near Fujian played a marginal role in the formation of the rainband, both greatly affected the structure and propagation of the rainband. Namely, convection in the upwind sector of the rainband tended to be maintained and locked up near the coastline in the control experiment with both the terrain and landmass near Fujian retained, but shrank more inland with the terrain near Fujian flattened, and further inland with the landmass near Fujian replaced by the virtual ocean. It is found that due to the land‐sea surface roughness contrast, the upstream tangential winds from ocean would be substantially decelerated over land and thus induced a local subgradient force onshore near the coastline. The radially inward agradient force and the subsequent surface friction helped maintain the moisture convergence, and thus convection and the cold pool in the upwind sector of the rainband near the coastline. Although the orographic lifting and blocking effects were found to be marginal to the moisture convergence in the rainband, the terrains near Fujian enhanced the deceleration of surface winds, enhancing the effect of land‐sea surface roughness contrast on low‐level moisture convergence and thus the lockup of the upwind sector of the rainband.