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Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) lifetime maximum intensity exhibits a distinct bimodal distribution, with peaks at tropical storm and major hurricane strength. Using a best‐track‐based algorithm to identify eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) storms, we show that ERC storms overwhelmingly populate the high‐intensity peak. Both reintensifying and non‐reintensifying ERC storms contribute, but those unable to reintensify cluster near 120–140 kt, defining the secondary peak. In contrast, reintensifying ERC storms can achieve higher intensities when moving over warmer seas with greater ocean heat content and reduced vertical wind shear. The scarcity of storms at intermediate intensities (85–105 kt) arises from rapid intensification (RI), which drives systems quickly through this range. These results clarify that while RI explains the trough at mid‐intensities, ERCs, by halting or enabling further strengthening, shape the high‐intensity peak and its upper tail. Incorporating ERC dynamics into intensity statistics may improve understanding and prediction of TC extremes. 

Abstract Hurricane Patricia (2015), the most powerful tropical cyclone (TC) on record, formed its secondary eyewall when its center was about 113 km offshore before its landfall at the southwestern coast of Mexico at around 2300 UTC 23 October. The ARW-WRF Model reproduced well the main features, allowing for a detailed investigation of the secondary eyewall formation (SEF). Our results show that the secondary eyewall developed from a stationary banding complex (SBC), originating from the intersection of two outer rainbands (OR1 and OR2) on the western side of the TC. This process was largely regulated and enhanced by the coastal terrain through the orographic channel effect. The results from sensitivity experiments show that increasing terrain height amplified the channel effect, accelerating airflow between the TC vortex and the terrain, strengthening convergence into OR1, and promoting midlevel descending inflow conducive to convective enhancement downstream in the SBC. While the terrain weakened low-level moisture transport, it also positioned OR2 closer to OR1, facilitating the formation of the SBC and accelerating the moat development. Backward trajectory analysis revealed that the inflows below the upper-level outflow layers of both the primary and secondary eyewalls contributed to moat development. With increasing terrain height, dry air transported into the moat region by the upper-level inflows from the secondary eyewall significantly increased, further suppressing convection in the moat. These findings offer novel insights into the understanding of SEF processes and underscore the importance of the topographic effects in shaping outer rainband organization, contributing to the moat and SEF. 

Abstract Secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in tropical cyclones (TCs) emerges from a complex interplay of internal dynamics and environmental influences. Motivated by observations linking low inertial stability in the TC outflow layer to eyewall replacement cycles, we investigate how variations in outflow‐layer inertial stability control both the initiation and radial position of SEF. Idealized simulations reveal that reduced outflow‐layer inertial stability enhances upper‐level divergence and updraft in the TC outer core, fostering the growth of stratiform rainbands. By averaging secondary circulation over the domain grids featuring stratiform precipitation, it is explicitly shown that the strength of the mesoscale descending inflow (MDI) is greater within the widespread and more developed stratiform clouds. Such stratiform‐induced MDI can dynamically and thermodynamically broaden the tangential wind field in the lower altitudes. As a result, the ensuing increase in boundary‐layer inertial stability and inflow supplies greater absolute vorticity influx in the outer‐core region, making the tangential wind tendency peaks and the secondary eyewall intensifies at a larger radius. This study highlights the role of MDI in the coupling between the upper‐ and lower‐tropospheric dynamics. 

Abstract This study explores how a wind‐dependent surface drag coefficient (C_D) influences secondary eyewall formation in tropical cyclones (TCs), using Super Typhoon Gaemi (2024) as a case study. We employ the Weather Research and Forecasting model with two different C_Dparameterizations and find that changing C_Dmarkedly affects boundary‐layer convergence and outer rainband evolution. In particular, the latest C_Dscheme with larger surface drag coefficient at wind speeds less than 45 m s⁻¹yields higher surface stress and stronger boundary‐layer convergence in the outer core, thereby enhancing rainband convection and triggering earlier formation of a more coherent secondary eyewall structure compared to the scheme with smaller, nearly constant C_Dat wind speeds greater than 45 m s⁻¹. These findings underscore the fundamental role of surface friction in shaping TC structure, with direct implications for operational TC forecasting, especially during eyewall replacement cycles. 

Abstract Hurricane Patricia (2015) formed over the eastern North Pacific and is the most intense tropical cyclone (TC) on record with a maximum sustained wind speed of 95 m s⁻¹, which presented a great forecasting challenge due to its unprecedented rapid intensification, record-breaking lifetime maximum intensity, and subsequent rapid weakening. The intensity and structure changes in Patricia were successfully simulated in a control experiment using a two-way interactive, quadruply nested version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with both initial and lateral boundary conditions from the Global Forecast System Final Analysis data. The successful simulation resulted from the inclusion of dissipative heating, realistic horizontal mixing length, and sea-spray-mediated heat flux. The relative contributions of these processes were assessed based on a series of ensemble-based sensitivity experiments and energetic diagnostics. Results show that dissipative heating and reduced horizontal mixing length had the most significant impacts on the intensification rate of Patricia after it reached an intensity of category 3, contributing 25.8% and 28.9% to the intensification rate and 11.7% and 14.1% to the lifetime maximum intensity, respectively. The contribution by spray-mediated heat flux increased significantly with wind speed, contributing up to 20.1% to the intensification rate and 20% to the surface energy flux under the eyewall at the wind speed of 90 m s⁻¹. An alternative surface drag coefficient scheme and a constant surface roughness for moisture and heat were also tested and discussed via sensitivity experiments. The study provides insights into the physical processes key to successful simulations and forecasts of extremely strong TCs. 

Abstract The timescale of eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) is critical for the prediction of intensity and structure changes of tropical cyclones (TCs) with concentric eyewall (CE) structures. Previous studies have indicated that the moat width can regulate the interaction between the inner and outer eyewalls and has a salient relationship with the ERC timescale. In this study, a series of sensitivity experiments are carried out to investigate the essential mechanisms resulting in the diversity of the duration of CEs using both simple and full‐physics models. Results reveal that a larger moat can induce stronger inflow under the same inner eyewall intensity by providing a longer distance for air parcels to accelerate in the boundary layer. Thus, there is greater inward absolute vorticity flux to sustain the inner eyewall. Besides, the equivalent potential temperature (θ_e) budget indicates that the vertical advection and surface flux of moist entropy can overbalance the negative contribution from the horizontal advection and lead to an increasing trend ofθ_ein the inner eyewall. This suggests that the thermodynamic process in the boundary layer is not indispensable to the inner eyewall weakening. It is also found that the contraction rate of the secondary eyewall, which directly influences the moat width, is subject to the activity of outer spiral rainbands. By directly introducing positive wind tendency outside the eyewall and indirectly promoting a vertically tilted eyewall structure, active convection in the outer region will impede or even suspend the contraction of the outer eyewall and hence extend the ERC timescale. 

Abstract Previous observational studies have shown that the intensification rate (IR) of a tropical cyclone (TC) is often correlated with its real-time size. However, no any size parameter explicitly appears in the recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification, while the theory can still well capture the intensity evolution of simulated TCs. This study provides a detailed analysis to address how TC real-time size affects its intensification and why no size parameter explicitly appears in the theory based on the results from axisymmetric numerical simulations. The results show that the overall correlation between the TC IR and real-time size as reported in previous observational studies, in terms of both the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and the radius of 17 m s⁻¹wind (R17), is largely related to the correlation between the IR and intensity because the size and intensity are highly interrelated. As a result, the correlation between the TC IR and size for a given intensity is rather weak. Diagnostic analysis shows that the TC real-time size (RMW and R17) has two opposing effects on intensification. A larger TC size tends to result in a higher steady-state intensity but reduce the conversion efficiency of thermodynamic energy to inner-core kinetic energy or the degree of moist neutrality of the eyewall ascent for a given intensity. The former is favorable, while the latter is unfavorable for intensification. The two effects are implicitly included in the theory and largely offset, resulting in the weak dependence of the IR on TC size for a given intensity. 

Abstract This study investigated the dependence of the early tropical cyclone (TC) weakening rate in response to an imposed moderate environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) on the warm‐core strength and height of the TC vortex using idealized numerical simulations. Results show that the weakening of the warm core by upper‐level ventilation is the primary factor leading to the early TC weakening in response to an imposed environmental VWS. The upper‐level ventilation is dominated by eddy radial advection of the warm‐core air. The TC weakening rate is roughly proportional to the warm‐core strength and height of the initial TC vortex. The boundary‐layer ventilation shows no relationship with the early weakening rate of the TC in response to an imposed moderate VWS. The findings suggest that some previous diverse results regarding the TC weakening in environmental VWS could be partly due to the different warm‐core strengths and heights of the initial TC vortex. 

Abstract Previous studies have investigated how the environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) may trigger the asymmetric structure in an initially axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex and how TC intensity changes in response. In this study, the possible effect of the initial vortex asymmetric structure on the TC intensity change in response to an imposed environmental VWS is investigated based on idealized full‐physics model simulations. Results show that the effect of the asymmetric structure in the initial TC vortex can either enhance or suppress the initial weakening of the TC in response to the imposed environmental VWS. When the initial asymmetric structure is in phase of the VWS‐induced asymmetric structure, the TC weakening will be enhanced and vice versa. Our finding calls for realistic representation of initial TC asymmetric structure in numerical weather prediction models and observations to better resolve the asymmetric structure in TCs. 

Abstract Several key issues in the simple time-dependent theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification developed in recent years remain, including the lack of a closure for the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at sea surface temperature (SST) under the eyewall and the definition of environmental conditions, such as the boundary layer enthalpy in TC environment and the TC outflow-layer temperature. In this study, some refinements to the most recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification have been accomplished to resolve those issues. The first is the construction of a functional relationship between the surface pressure under the eyewall and the TC intensity, which is derived using the cyclostrophic wind balance and calibrated using full-physics axisymmetric model simulations. The second is the definition of TC environment that explicitly includes the air–sea temperature difference. The third is the TC outflow-layer temperature parameterized as a linear function of SST based on global reanalysis data. With these refinements, the updated time-dependent theory becomes self-contained and can give both the intensity-dependent TC intensification rate (IR) and the maximum potential intensity (MPI) under given environmental thermodynamic conditions. It is shown that the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at SST can lead to an increase in the TC MPI and IR by about half of that induced by dissipative heating due to surface friction. Results also show that both MPI and IR increase with increasing SST, surface enthalpy exchange coefficient, environmental air–sea temperature difference, and decreasing environmental boundary layer relative humidity, but the maximum IR is insensitive to surface drag coefficient. Significance StatementA new advancement in the recent decade is the development of simple time-dependent theories of tropical cyclone (TC) intensification, which can provide quantitative understanding of TC intensity change. However, several key issues in these simple time-dependent theories remain, including the lack of a closure for the pressure dependence of saturation enthalpy at sea surface temperature under the eyewall and the definition of environmental conditions. These are resolved in this study with several refinements, which make the most recent time-dependent theory of TC intensification self-contained and practical.