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Abstract The thermal structure of subduction zones is fundamental to our understanding of the physical and chemical processes that occur at active convergent plate margins. These include magma generation and related arc volcanism, shallow and deep seismicity, and metamorphic reactions that can release fluids. Computational models can predict the thermal structure to great numerical precision when models are fully described but this does not guarantee accuracy or applicability. In a trio of companion papers, the construction of thermal subduction zone models, their use in subduction zone studies, and their link to geophysical and geochemical observations are explored. In this last part, we discuss how independent finite element approaches predict the thermal structure of the global subduction system and investigate how well these predictions correspond to geophysical, geochemical, and petrological observations. 

Abstract Molnar and England (1990,https://doi.org/10.1029/JB095iB04p04833) introduced equations using a semianalytical approach that approximate the thermal structure of the forearc regions in subduction zones. A detailed new comparison with high‐resolution finite element models shows that the original equations provide robust predictions and can be improved by a few modifications that follow from the theoretical derivation. The updated approximate equations are shown to be quite accurate for a straight‐dipping slab that is warmed by heat flowing from its base and by shear heating at its top. The approximation of radiogenic heating in the crust of the overriding plate is less accurate but the overall effect of this heating mode is small. It is shown that the previous and updated approximate equations become increasingly inaccurate with decreasing thermal parameter and increasing variability of slab dip. It is also shown that the approximate equations cannot be extrapolated accurately past the brittle‐ductile transition. Conclusions in a recent paper (Kohn et al., 2018,https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1809962115) that modest amount of shear heating can explain the thermal conditions of past subduction from the exhumed metamorphic rock record are invalid due to a number of compounding errors in the application of the Molnar and England (1990,https://doi.org/10.1029/JB095iB04p04833) equations past the brittle‐ductile transition. The use of the improved approximate equations is highly recommended provided their limitations are taken into account. For subduction zones with variable dip and/or low thermal parameter finite element modeling is recommended. 

The thermal structure of subduction zones is fundamental to our understanding of physical and chemical processes that occur at active convergent plate margins. These include magma generation and related arc volcanism, shallow and deep seismicity, and metamorphic reactions that can release fluids. Computational models can predict the thermal structure to great numerical precision when models are fully described but this does not guarantee accuracy or applicability. In a trio of companion papers, the construction of thermal subduction zone models, their use in subduction zone studies, and their link to geophysical and geochemical observations are explored. In part I, the motivation to understand the thermal structure is presented based on experimental and observational studies. This is followed by a description of a selection of thermal models for the Japanese subduction zones. 

Abstract The plate interface undergoes two transitions between seismogenic depths and subarc depths. A brittle-ductile transition at 20–50 km depth is followed by a transition to full viscous coupling to the overlying mantle wedge at ∼80 km depth. We review evidence for both transitions, focusing on heat-flow and seismic-attenuation constraints on the deeper transition. The intervening ductile shear zone likely weakens considerably as temperature increases, such that its rheology exerts a stronger control on subduction-zone thermal structure than does frictional shear heating. We evaluate its role through analytic approximations and two-dimensional finite-element models for both idealized subduction geometries and those resembling real subduction zones. We show that a temperature-buffering process exists in the shear zone that results in temperatures being tightly controlled by the rheological strength of that shear zone’s material for a wide range of shear-heating behaviors of the shallower brittle region. Higher temperatures result in weaker shear zones and hence less heat generation, so temperatures stop increasing and shear zones stop weakening. The net result for many rheologies are temperatures limited to ≤350–420 °C along the plate interface below the cold forearc of most subduction zones until the hot coupled mantle is approached. Very young incoming plates are the exception. This rheological buffering desensitizes subduction-zone thermal structure to many parameters and may help explain the global constancy of the 80 km coupling limit. We recalculate water fluxes to the forearc wedge and deep mantle and find that shear heating has little effect on global water circulation.