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Abstract Current‐generation climate models project that Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century, severely stressing African populations. Past and ongoing work indicates, however, that the models used to create these projections do not match proxy records of past temperature in Africa during the mid‐Holocene (MH), raising concerns that their future projections may house large uncertainties. Rather than reproducing proxy‐based reconstructions of MH warming relative to the Pre‐Industrial (PI), models instead simulate MH temperatures very similar to or slightly colder than the PI. This data‐model mismatch could be due to a variety of factors, including biases in model surface energy budgets or inaccurate representation of the feedbacks between temperature and hydrologic change during the “Green Sahara.” We focus on the differences among model simulations in the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 4 (PMIP3 and PMIP4), examining surface temperature and energy budgets to investigate controls on temperature and the potential model sources of this paleoclimate data‐model mismatch. Our results suggest that colder conditions simulated by PMIP3 and PMIP4 models during the MH are in large part due to the joint impacts of feedback uncertainties in response to increased precipitation, a strengthened West African Monsoon (WAM) in the Sahel, and the Green Sahara. We extend these insights into suggestions for model physics and boundary condition changes, and discuss implications for the accuracy of future climate model projections over Africa. 

Abstract Climate models predict Africa will warm by up to 5°C in the coming century, stressing African societies. To provide independent constraints on model predictions, this study compares two notable reconstructions of East African temperatures to those predicted by Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) and transient TraCE (Transient Climate Evolution) simulations, focusing on the Mid‐Holocene (MH, 5–8 kyr B.P.). Reconstructions of tropical African temperature derived from lake sedimentary archives indicate 1–2.5°C of warming during the MH relative to the 20th century, but most climate models do not replicate the warming observed in these paleoclimate data. We investigate this discrepancy using a new lake proxy system model, with attention to the (potentially non‐stationary) relationship between lake temperature and air temperature. We find amplified lake surface temperature changes compared to air temperature during the MH due to heightened seasonality and precessional forcing. Lacustrine processes account for some of the warming, and highlight how the lake heat budget leads to a rectification of the seasonal cycle; however, the simulated lake heating bias is insufficient to reconcile the full discrepancy between the models and the proxy‐derived MH warming. We find further evidence of changes in mixing depth over time, potentially driven by changes in cloud cover and shortwave radiative fluxes penetrating the lake surface. This may confound interpretation for glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGT) compounds which exist in the mixed layer, and suggests a need for independent constraints on mixed layer depth. This work provides a new interpretive framework for invaluable paleoclimate records of temperature changes over the African continent.