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The Pliocene offers insights into future climate, with near‐modern atmospheric pCO₂and global mean surface temperature estimated to be 3–4°C above pre‐industrial. However, the hydrological response differs between future global warming and early Pliocene climate model simulations. This discrepancy results from the use of reduced meridional and zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, based on foraminiferal Mg/Ca and Alkenone proxy evidence, to force the early Pliocene simulation. Subsequent, SST reconstructions based on the organic proxy TEX₈₆, have found warmer temperatures in the warm pool, bringing the magnitude of the gradient reductions into dispute. We design an independent test of Pliocene SST scenarios and their hydrological cycle “fingerprints.” We use an isotope‐enabled General Circulation Model, iCAM5, to model the distribution of water isotopes in precipitation in response to four climatological SST and sea‐ice fields representing modern, abrupt 4 × CO₂, late Pliocene and early Pliocene climates. We conduct a proxy‐model comparison with all the available precipitation isotope proxy data, and we identify target regions that carry precipitation isotopic fingerprints of SST gradients as priorities for additional proxy reconstructions. We identify two regions with distinct precipitation isotope (D/H) fingerprints resulting from reduced SST gradients: the Maritime Continent (D‐enriched due to reduced convective rainfall) and the Sahel (wetter, more deep convection, D‐depleted). The proxy‐model comparison using available plant wax reconstructions, mostly from Africa, is promising but inconclusive. Additional proxy reconstructions are needed in both target regions and in much of the world for significant tests of SST scenarios and dynamical linkages to the hydrological cycle.

 

Abstract Despite tectonic conditions and atmospheric CO 2 levels ( pCO 2 ) similar to those of present-day, geological reconstructions from the mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma) document high lake levels in the Sahel and mesic conditions in subtropical Eurasia, suggesting drastic reorganizations of subtropical terrestrial hydroclimate during this interval. Here, using a compilation of proxy data and multi-model paleoclimate simulations, we show that the mid-Pliocene hydroclimate state is not driven by direct CO 2 radiative forcing but by a loss of northern high-latitude ice sheets and continental greening. These ice sheet and vegetation changes are long-term Earth system feedbacks to elevated pCO 2 . Further, the moist conditions in the Sahel and subtropical Eurasia during the mid-Pliocene are a product of enhanced tropospheric humidity and a stationary wave response to the surface warming pattern, which varies strongly with land cover changes. These findings highlight the potential for amplified terrestrial hydroclimate responses over long timescales to a sustained CO 2 forcing. 

Abstract. The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve ourunderstanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts permillion by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Plioceneclimate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varyingcomplexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions ofboundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2;PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperaturesincrease by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial erawith a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean totalprecipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports. 

Abstract. Palaeoclimate simulations improve our understanding ofthe climate, inform us about the performance of climate models in adifferent climate scenario, and help to identify robust features of theclimate system. Here, we analyse Arctic warming in an ensemble of 16simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP), derived from thePliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2). The PlioMIP2 ensemble simulates Arctic (60–90∘ N) annual meansurface air temperature (SAT) increases of 3.7 to 11.6 ∘Ccompared to the pre-industrial period, with a multi-model mean (MMM) increase of7.2 ∘C. The Arctic warming amplification ratio relative to globalSAT anomalies in the ensemble ranges from 1.8 to 3.1 (MMM is 2.3). Sea iceextent anomalies range from −3.0 to -10.4×106 km2, with a MMManomaly of -5.6×106 km2, which constitutes a decrease of 53 %compared to the pre-industrial period. The majority (11 out of 16) of models simulatesummer sea-ice-free conditions (≤1×106 km2) in their mPWPsimulation. The ensemble tends to underestimate SAT in the Arctic whencompared to available reconstructions, although the degree of underestimationvaries strongly between the simulations. The simulations with the highestArctic SAT anomalies tend to match the proxy dataset in its current formbetter. The ensemble shows some agreement with reconstructions of sea ice,particularly with regard to seasonal sea ice. Large uncertainties limit theconfidence that can be placed in the findings and the compatibility of thedifferent proxy datasets. We show that while reducing uncertainties in thereconstructions could decrease the SAT data–model discord substantially,further improvements are likely to be found in enhanced boundary conditionsor model physics. Lastly, we compare the Arctic warming in the mPWP toprojections of future Arctic warming and find that the PlioMIP2 ensemblesimulates greater Arctic amplification than CMIP5 future climate simulationsand an increase instead of a decrease in Atlantic Meridional OverturningCirculation (AMOC) strength compared topre-industrial period. The results highlight the importance of slow feedbacks inequilibrium climate simulations, and that caution must be taken when usingsimulations of the mPWP as an analogue for future climate change.