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Abstract Thermokarst lakes cause abrupt and sustained permafrost degradation and have the potential to release large quantities of ancient carbon to the atmosphere. Despite concerns about how lakes will affect the permafrost carbon feedback, the magnitude of carbon dioxide and methane emissions from deep permafrost soils remains poorly understood. Here we incubated a very deep sediment core (20 m) to constrain the potential productivity of thawed Yedoma and underlying Quaternary sand and gravel deposits. Through radiocarbon dating, sediment incubations and sediment facies classifications, we show that extensive permafrost thaw can occur beneath lakes on timescales of decades to centuries. Although it has been assumed that shallow, aerobic carbon dioxide production will dominate the climate impact of permafrost thaw, we found that anaerobic carbon dioxide and methane production from deep sediments was commensurate with aerobic production on a per gram carbon basis, and had double the global warming potential at warmer temperatures. Carbon release from deep Arctic sediments may thus have a more substantial impact on a changing climate than currently anticipated. These environments are presently overlooked in estimates of the permafrost carbon feedback. 

Abstract Climate-driven permafrost thaw can release ancient carbon to the atmosphere, begetting further warming in a positive feedback loop. Polar ice core data and young radiocarbon ages of dissolved methane in thermokarst lakes have challenged the importance of this feedback, but field studies did not adequately account for older methane released from permafrost through bubbling. We synthesized panarctic isotope and emissions datasets to derive integrated ages of panarctic lake methane fluxes. Methane age in modern thermokarst lakes (3132 ± 731 years before present) reflects remobilization of ancient carbon. Thermokarst-lake methane emissions fit within the constraints imposed by polar ice core data. Younger, albeit ultimately larger sources of methane from glacial lakes, estimated here, lagged those from thermokarst lakes. Our results imply that panarctic lake methane release was a small positive feedback to climate warming, comprising up to 17% of total northern hemisphere sources during the deglacial period. 

Abstract Reservoirs of¹⁴C-depleted methane (CH₄), a potent greenhouse gas, residing beneath permafrost are vulnerable to escape where permafrost thaw creates open-talik conduits. However, little is known about the magnitude and variability of this methane source or its response to climate change. Remote-sensing detection of large gas seeps would be useful for establishing a baseline understanding of sub-permafrost methane seepage, as well as for monitoring these seeps over time. Here we explored synthetic aperture radar’s (SAR) response to large sub-permafrost gas seeps in an interior Alaskan lake. In SAR scenes from 1992 to 2011, we observed high perennial SAR L-band backscatter (σ⁰) from a ∼90 m-wide feature in the winter ice of interior Alaska’s North Blair Lake (NBL). Spring and fall optical imagery showed holes in the ice at the same location as the SAR anomaly. Through field work we (1) confirmed gas bubbling at this location from a large pockmark in the lakebed, (2) measured flux at the location of densest bubbles (1713 ± 290 mg CH₄m⁻²d⁻¹), and (3) determined the bubbles’ methane mixing ratio (6.6%), radiocarbon age (18 470 ± 50 years BP), and δ¹³C_CH4values (−44.5 ± 0.1‰), which together may represent a mixture of sources and processes. We performed a first order comparison of SARσ⁰from the NBL seep and other known sub-permafrost methane seeps with diverse ice/water interface shapes in order to evaluate the variability of SAR signals from a variety of seep types. Results from single-polarized intensity and polarimetric L-band SAR decompositions as well as dual-polarized C-band SAR are presented with the aim to find the optimal SAR imaging parameters to detect large methane seeps in frozen lakes. Our study indicates the potential for SAR remote sensing to be used to detect and monitor large, sub-permafrost gas seeps in Arctic and sub-Arctic lakes. 

Abstract Climate warming threatens to destabilize vast northern permafrost areas, potentially releasing large quantities of organic carbon that could further disrupt the climate. Here we synthesize paleorecords of past permafrost-carbon dynamics to contextualize future permafrost stability and carbon feedbacks. We identify key landscape differences between the last deglaciation and today that influence the response of permafrost to atmospheric warming, as well as landscape-level differences that limit subsequent carbon uptake. We show that the current magnitude of thaw has not yet exceeded that of previous deglaciations, but that permafrost carbon release has the potential to exert a strong feedback on future Arctic climate as temperatures exceed those of the Pleistocene. Better constraints on the extent of subsea permafrost and its carbon pool, and on carbon dynamics from a range of permafrost thaw processes, including blowout craters and megaslumps, are needed to help quantify the future permafrost-carbon-climate feedbacks. 

Abstract Flooding of low-lying Arctic regions has the potential to warm and thaw permafrost by changing the surface reflectance of solar insolation, increasing subsurface soil moisture, and increasing soil thermal conductivity. However, the impact of flooding on permafrost in the continuous permafrost environment remains poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we used a combination of available flooding data on the Ikpikpuk delta and a numerical model to simulate the hydro-thermal processes under coastal floodplain flooding. We first constructed the three most common flood events based on water level data on the Ikpikpuk: snowmelt floods in the late spring and early summer, middle and late summer floods, and floods throughout the whole spring and summer. Then the impact of these flooding events on the permafrost was simulated for one-dimensional permafrost columns using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATSv1.0), a fully coupled permafrost-hydrology and thermal dynamic model. Our results show that coastal floods have an important impact on coastal permafrost dynamics with a cooling effect on the surficial soil and a warming effect on the deeper soil. Cumulative flooding events over several years can cause continuous warming of the deep subsurface but cool down the surficial layer. Flood timing is a primary control of the vertical extent of the permafrost thaw and the active layer deepening. 

Abstract Climate warming in high‐latitude regions is thawing carbon‐rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long‐term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM‐Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern Canada. We compared the net carbon balance at 2100 CE resulting from new productivity and the decomposition of active layer and newly thawed permafrost peats under RCP8.5 as a high‐end constraint. Modeled net carbon losses ranged from −3.0 kg C m⁻²(net loss) to +0.1 kg C m⁻²(net gain) between 2015 and 2100. Losses of newly thawed permafrost peat comprised 0.2%–25% (median: 1.6%) of “old” C loss, which were related to the residence time of peat in the active layer before being incorporated into the permafrost, peat temperature, and presence of permafrost. The largest C loss was from the permafrost‐free site, not from permafrost sites. C losses were greatest from depths of 0.2–1.0 m. New C added to the profile through net primary productivity between 2015 and 2100 offset ∼40% to >100% of old C losses across the sites. Differences between modeled active layer deepening and flooding following permafrost thaw resulted in very small differences in net C loss by 2100, illustrating the important role of present‐day conditions and permafrost aggradation history in controlling net C loss. 

Abstract Thermokarst lakes accelerate deep permafrost thaw and the mobilization of previously frozen soil organic carbon. This leads to microbial decomposition and large releases of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) that enhance climate warming. However, the time scale of permafrost-carbon emissions following thaw is not well known but is important for understanding how abrupt permafrost thaw impacts climate feedback. We combined field measurements and radiocarbon dating of CH₄ebullition with (a) an assessment of lake area changes delineated from high-resolution (1–2.5 m) optical imagery and (b) geophysical measurements of thaw bulbs (taliks) to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of hotspot-seep CH₄ebullition in interior Alaska thermokarst lakes. Hotspot seeps are characterized as point-sources of high ebullition that release¹⁴C-depleted CH₄from deep (up to tens of meters) within lake thaw bulbs year-round. Thermokarst lakes, initiated by a variety of factors, doubled in number and increased 37.5% in area from 1949 to 2009 as climate warmed. Approximately 80% of contemporary CH₄hotspot seeps were associated with this recent thermokarst activity, occurring where 60 years of abrupt thaw took place as a result of new and expanded lake areas. Hotspot occurrence diminished with distance from thermokarst lake margins. We attribute older¹⁴C ages of CH₄released from hotspot seeps in older, expanding thermokarst lakes (¹⁴C_CH420 079 ± 1227 years BP, mean ± standard error (s.e.m.) years) to deeper taliks (thaw bulbs) compared to younger¹⁴C_CH4in new lakes (¹⁴C_CH48526 ± 741 years BP) with shallower taliks. We find that smaller, non-hotspot ebullition seeps have younger¹⁴C ages (expanding lakes 7473 ± 1762 years; new lakes 4742 ± 803 years) and that their emissions span a larger historic range. These observations provide a first-order constraint on the magnitude and decadal-scale duration of CH₄-hotspot seep emissions following formation of thermokarst lakes as climate warms. 

Abstract The magnitude of future emissions of greenhouse gases from the northern permafrost region depends crucially on the mineralization of soil organic carbon (SOC) that has accumulated over millennia in these perennially frozen soils. Many recent studies have used radiocarbon (¹⁴C) to quantify the release of this “old” SOC as CO₂or CH₄to the atmosphere or as dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC) to surface waters. We compiled ~1,900¹⁴C measurements from 51 sites in the northern permafrost region to assess the vulnerability of thawing SOC in tundra, forest, peatland, lake, and river ecosystems. We found that growing season soil¹⁴C‐CO₂emissions generally had a modern (post‐1950s) signature, but that well‐drained, oxic soils had increased CO₂emissions derived from older sources following recent thaw. The age of CO₂and CH₄emitted from lakes depended primarily on the age and quantity of SOC in sediments and on the mode of emission, and indicated substantial losses of previously frozen SOC from actively expanding thermokarst lakes. Increased fluvial export of aged DOC and POC occurred from sites where permafrost thaw caused soil thermal erosion. There was limited evidence supporting release of previously frozen SOC as CO₂, CH₄, and DOC from thawing peatlands with anoxic soils. This synthesis thus suggests widespread but not universal release of permafrost SOC following thaw. We show that different definitions of “old” sources among studies hamper the comparison of vulnerability of permafrost SOC across ecosystems and disturbances. We also highlight opportunities for future¹⁴C studies in the permafrost region. 

This review examines recent developments in the application of stable isotope analyses (δ18O, δ13C, δ15N, δD) to lacustrine invertebrate remains. These remains are ubiquitous in lacustrine sediments and thus provide an opportunity to measure changes in stable isotope ratios across a range of timescales and environments and allow interpretive power beyond taxonomic studies. To date they have been relatively understudied in comparison to carbonate fossils and offer both opportunities and challenges and we explore both themes in this review. This review will explore improvements to analytical instrumentation and the opportunities that this presents, it will look at a range of new studies of the modern lacustrine environment and how these studies allow a more nuanced palaeoenvironmental approach. We review recent studies that have used these advancements in understanding to help to reveal new knowledge of past climates, environments and ecology. In addition, we explore new studies that help to elucidate the role of methane-derived carbon to lacustrine food webs and the drivers behind this, including new data to estimate the contribution of methane derived carbon to an arctic lake. We conclude that major progress is currently being made in invertebrate-isotope analyses, and we expect this to continue apace. 

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have gone through rapid changes since the last deglaciation; however, the reasons for abrupt increases around 14,700 and 11,600 years before present (yrs BP) are not fully understood. Concurrent with deglaciation, sea-level rise gradually inundated vast areas of the low-lying Beringian shelf. This transformation of what was once a terrestrial-permafrost tundra-steppe landscape, into coastal, and subsequently, marine environments led to new sources of CH4 from the region to the atmosphere. Here, we estimate, based on an extended geospatial analysis, the area of Beringian coastal wetlands in 1000-year intervals and their potential contribution to northern CH4 flux (based on present day CH4 fluxes from coastal wetland) during the past 20,000 years. At its maximum (∼14,000 yrs BP) we estimated CH4 fluxes from Beringia coastal wetlands to be 3.5 (+4.0/-1.9) Tg CH4 yr−1. This shifts the onset of CH4 fluxes from northern regions earlier, towards the Bølling-Allerød, preceding peak emissions from the formation of northern high latitude thermokarst lakes and wetlands. Emissions associated with the inundation of Beringian coastal wetlands better align with polar ice core reconstructions of northern hemisphere sources of atmospheric CH4 during the last deglaciation, suggesting a connection between rising sea level, coastal wetland expansion, and enhanced CH4 emissions.