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As organisms evolve, the effects of mutations change as a result of epistatic interactions with other mutations accumulated along the line of descent. This can lead to shifts in adaptability or robustness that ultimately shape subsequent evolution. Here, we review recent advances in measuring, modeling, and predicting epistasis along evolutionary trajectories, both in microbial cells and single proteins. We focus on simple patterns of global epistasis that emerge in this data, in which the effects of mutations can be predicted by a small number of variables. The emergence of these patterns offers promise for efforts to model epistasis and predict evolution.

 

The large-scale and nonaseptic fermentation of sugarcane feedstocks into fuel ethanol in biorefineries represents a unique ecological niche, in which the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae is the predominant organism. Several factors, such as sugarcane variety, process design, and operating and weather conditions, make each of the ∼400 industrial units currently operating in Brazil a unique ecosystem. Here, we track yeast population dynamics in 2 different biorefineries through 2 production seasons (April to November of 2018 and 2019), using a novel statistical framework on a combination of metagenomic and clonal sequencing data. We find that variation from season to season in 1 biorefinery is small compared to the differences between the 2 units. In 1 biorefinery, all lineages present during the entire production period derive from 1 of the starter strains, while in the other, invading lineages took over the population and displaced the starter strain. However, despite the presence of invading lineages and the nonaseptic nature of the process, all yeast clones we isolated are phylogenetically related to other previously sequenced bioethanol yeast strains, indicating a common origin from this industrial niche. Despite the substantial changes observed in yeast populations through time in each biorefinery, key process indicators remained quite stable through both production seasons, suggesting that the process is robust to the details of these population dynamics.

 

The Omicron BA.1 variant emerged in late 2021 and quickly spread across the world. Compared to the earlier SARS-CoV-2 variants, BA.1 has many mutations, some of which are known to enable antibody escape. Many of these antibody-escape mutations individually decrease the spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) affinity for ACE2, but BA.1 still binds ACE2 with high affinity. The fitness and evolution of the BA.1 lineage is therefore driven by the combined effects of numerous mutations. Here, we systematically map the epistatic interactions between the 15 mutations in the RBD of BA.1 relative to the Wuhan Hu-1 strain. Specifically, we measure the ACE2 affinity of all possible combinations of these 15 mutations (2¹⁵ = 32,768 genotypes), spanning all possible evolutionary intermediates from the ancestral Wuhan Hu-1 strain to BA.1. We find that immune escape mutations in BA.1 individually reduce ACE2 affinity but are compensated by epistatic interactions with other affinity-enhancing mutations, including Q498R and N501Y. Thus, the ability of BA.1 to evade immunity while maintaining ACE2 affinity is contingent on acquiring multiple interacting mutations. Our results implicate compensatory epistasis as a key factor driving substantial evolutionary change for SARS-CoV-2 and are consistent with Omicron BA.1 arising from a chronic infection.

 

The reduction of genetic diversity due to genetic hitchhiking is widely used to find past selective sweeps from sequencing data, but very little is known about how spatial structure affects hitchhiking. We use mathematical modeling and simulations to find the unfolded site frequency spectrum left by hitchhiking in the genomic region of a sweep in a population occupying a 1D range. For such populations, sweeps spread as Fisher waves, rather than logistically. We find that this leaves a characteristic 3-part site frequency spectrum at loci very close to the swept locus. Very low frequencies are dominated by recent mutations that occurred after the sweep and are unaffected by hitchhiking. At moderately low frequencies, there is a transition zone primarily composed of alleles that briefly “surfed” on the wave of the sweep before falling out of the wavefront, leaving a spectrum close to that expected in well-mixed populations. However, for moderate-to-high frequencies, there is a distinctive scaling regime of the site frequency spectrum produced by alleles that drifted to fixation in the wavefront and then were carried throughout the population. For loci slightly farther away from the swept locus on the genome, recombination is much more effective at restoring diversity in 1D populations than it is in well-mixed ones. We find that these signatures of space can be strong even in apparently well-mixed populations with negligible spatial genetic differentiation, suggesting that spatial structure may frequently distort the signatures of hitchhiking in natural populations.

 

The Omicron BA.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2 escapes convalescent sera and monoclonal antibodies that are effective against earlier strains of the virus. This immune evasion is largely a consequence of mutations in the BA.1 receptor binding domain (RBD), the major antigenic target of SARS-CoV-2. Previous studies have identified several key RBD mutations leading to escape from most antibodies. However, little is known about how these escape mutations interact with each other and with other mutations in the RBD. Here, we systematically map these interactions by measuring the binding affinity of all possible combinations of these 15 RBD mutations (2 15 =32,768 genotypes) to 4 monoclonal antibodies (LY-CoV016, LY-CoV555, REGN10987, and S309) with distinct epitopes. We find that BA.1 can lose affinity to diverse antibodies by acquiring a few large-effect mutations and can reduce affinity to others through several small-effect mutations. However, our results also reveal alternative pathways to antibody escape that does not include every large-effect mutation. Moreover, epistatic interactions are shown to constrain affinity decline in S309 but only modestly shape the affinity landscapes of other antibodies. Together with previous work on the ACE2 affinity landscape, our results suggest that the escape of each antibody is mediated by distinct groups of mutations, whose deleterious effects on ACE2 affinity are compensated by another distinct group of mutations (most notably Q498R and N501Y). 

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) that neutralize diverse variants of a particular virus are of considerable therapeutic interest. Recent advances have enabled us to isolate and engineer these antibodies as therapeutics, but eliciting them through vaccination remains challenging, in part due to our limited understanding of how antibodies evolve breadth. Here, we analyze the landscape by which an anti-influenza receptor binding site (RBS) bnAb, CH65, evolved broad affinity to diverse H1 influenza strains. We do this by generating an antibody library of all possible evolutionary intermediates between the unmutated common ancestor (UCA) and the affinity-matured CH65 antibody and measure the affinity of each intermediate to three distinct H1 antigens. We find that affinity to each antigen requires a specific set of mutations – distributed across the variable light and heavy chains – that interact non-additively (i.e., epistatically). These sets of mutations form a hierarchical pattern across the antigens, with increasingly divergent antigens requiring additional epistatic mutations beyond those required to bind less divergent antigens. We investigate the underlying biochemical and structural basis for these hierarchical sets of epistatic mutations and find that epistasis between heavy chain mutations and a mutation in the light chain at the V H -V L interface is essential for binding a divergent H1. Collectively, this is the first work to comprehensively characterize epistasis between heavy and light chain mutations and shows that such interactions are both strong and widespread. Together with our previous study analyzing a different class of anti-influenza antibodies, our results implicate epistasis as a general feature of antibody sequence-affinity landscapes that can potentiate and constrain the evolution of breadth. 

As an adapting population traverses the fitness landscape, its local neighborhood (i.e., the collection of fitness effects of single-step mutations) can change shape because of interactions with mutations acquired during evolution. These changes to the distribution of fitness effects can affect both the rate of adaptation and the accumulation of deleterious mutations. However, while numerous models of fitness landscapes have been proposed in the literature, empirical data on how this distribution changes during evolution remains limited. In this study, we directly measure how the fitness landscape neighborhood changes during laboratory adaptation. Using a barcode-based mutagenesis system, we measure the fitness effects of 91 specific gene disruption mutations in genetic backgrounds spanning 8000–10,000 generations of evolution in two constant environments. We find that the mean of the distribution of fitness effects decreases in one environment, indicating a reduction in mutational robustness, but does not change in the other. We show that these distribution-level patterns result from differences in the relative frequency of certain patterns of epistasis at the level of individual mutations, including fitness-correlated and idiosyncratic epistasis. 

A genome-spanning fitness landscape reveals how idiosyncratic genetic interactions lead to global epistatic patterns. 

Abstract In rapidly evolving populations, numerous beneficial and deleterious mutations can arise and segregate within a population at the same time. In this regime, evolutionary dynamics cannot be analyzed using traditional population genetic approaches that assume that sites evolve independently. Instead, the dynamics of many loci must be analyzed simultaneously. Recent work has made progress by first analyzing the fitness variation within a population, and then studying how individual lineages interact with this traveling fitness wave. However, these “traveling wave” models have previously been restricted to extreme cases where selection on individual mutations is either much faster or much slower than the typical coalescent timescale Tc. In this work, we show how the traveling wave framework can be extended to intermediate regimes in which the scaled fitness effects of mutations (Tcs) are neither large nor small compared to one. This enables us to describe the dynamics of populations subject to a wide range of fitness effects, and in particular, in cases where it is not immediately clear which mutations are most important in shaping the dynamics and statistics of genetic diversity. We use this approach to derive new expressions for the fixation probabilities and site frequency spectra of mutations as a function of their scaled fitness effects, along with related results for the coalescent timescale Tc and the rate of adaptation or Muller’s ratchet. We find that competition between linked mutations can have a dramatic impact on the proportions of neutral and selected polymorphisms, which is not simply summarized by the scaled selection coefficient Tcs. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results for population genetic inferences.