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  1. Abstract

    Microbial communities often perform important functions that depend on inter-species interactions. To improve community function via artificial selection, one can repeatedly grow many communities to allow mutations to arise, and “reproduce” the highest-functioning communities by partitioning each into multiple offspring communities for the next cycle. Since improvement is often unimpressive in experiments, we study how to design effective selection strategies in silico. Specifically, we simulate community selection to improve a function that requires two species. With a “community function landscape”, we visualize how community function depends on species and genotype compositions. Due to ecological interactions that promote species coexistence, the evolutionary trajectory of communities is restricted to a path on the landscape. This restriction can generate counter-intuitive evolutionary dynamics, prevent the attainment of maximal function, and importantly, hinder selection by trapping communities in locations of low community function heritability. We devise experimentally-implementable manipulations to shift the path to higher heritability, which speeds up community function improvement even when landscapes are high dimensional or unknown. Video walkthroughs:https://go.nature.com/3GWwS6j;https://online.kitp.ucsb.edu/online/ecoevo21/shou2/.

     
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  2. Complex systems are challenging to understand, especially when they defy manipulative experiments for practical or ethical reasons. Several fields have developed parallel approaches to infer causal relations from observational time series. Yet, these methods are easy to misunderstand and often controversial. Here, we provide an accessible and critical review of three statistical causal discovery approaches (pairwise correlation, Granger causality, and state space reconstruction), using examples inspired by ecological processes. For each approach, we ask what it tests for, what causal statement it might imply, and when it could lead us astray. We devise new ways of visualizing key concepts, describe some novel pathologies of existing methods, and point out how so-called ‘model-free’ causality tests are not assumption-free. We hope that our synthesis will facilitate thoughtful application of methods, promote communication across different fields, and encourage explicit statements of assumptions. A video walkthrough is available (Video 1 or https://youtu.be/AlV0ttQrjK8 ). 
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  3. de Visser, J. Arjan (Ed.)