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Abstract Understanding variations in the received power levels for land‐based high frequency radar (HFR) systems is critical to advancing radar‐based estimates of winds and waves. We use a long‐term record of one‐way HFR power observations to explore the key factors controlling propagation losses over the ocean. Observed propagation loss was quantified using an 8‐month record of radio frequency power from a shore‐based transmitter, received at two locations: an offshore tower and a nearby island. Observations were compared to environmental factors such as wind speed and air temperature as well as models of path loss incorporating smooth and rough surface impedances and varying atmospheric properties. Significant differences in the observations at the two sites existed. One‐way path loss variations at the tower, a wavelength above mean sea level, were closely related to atmospheric forcing, while variations at the distant island site were dominated by wind‐driven surface gravity wave variability. Seasonal variability in ocean conductivity had no significant effect on over‐ocean path losses. Simplistic analytical models of path loss were found to have more skill than either ground wave propagation models or more complex numerical models of field strength in matching the observations, due in part to under‐observation of the atmosphere but also the differences in rough surface impedance between models of ocean waves.