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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) presents significant challenges in clinical practice due to its heterogeneous manifestation and variable progression rates. This work develops a comprehensive anatomical staging framework to predict progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD. Using the ADNI database, the scalable Subtype and Stage Inference (s-SuStaIn) model was applied to 118 neuroanatomical features from cognitively normal (n = 504) and AD (n = 346) participants. The framework was validated on 808 MCI participants through associations with clinical progression, CSF and FDG-PET biomarkers, and neuropsychiatric measures, while adjusting for common confounders (age, gender, education, and APOE ε4 alleles). The framework demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy compared to traditional risk assessment (C-index = 0.73 vs. 0.62). Four distinct disease subtypes showed differential progression rates, biomarker profiles (FDG-PET and CSF Aβ42), and cognitive trajectories: Subtype 1, subcortical-first pattern; Subtype 2, executive–cortical pattern; Subtype 3, disconnection pattern; and Subtype 4, frontal–executive pattern. Stage-dependent changes revealed systematic deterioration across diverse cognitive domains, particularly in learning acquisition, visuospatial processing, and functional abilities. This data-driven approach captures clinically meaningful disease heterogeneity and improves prognostication in MCI, potentially enabling more personalized therapeutic strategies and clinical trial design. 

This work introduces TrialSieve, a novel framework for biomedical information extraction that enhances clinical meta-analysis and drug repurposing. By extending traditional PICO (Patient, Intervention, Comparison, Outcome) methodologies, TrialSieve incorporates hierarchical, treatment group-based graphs, enabling more comprehensive and quantitative comparisons of clinical outcomes. TrialSieve was used to annotate 1609 PubMed abstracts, 170,557 annotations, and 52,638 final spans, incorporating 20 unique annotation categories that capture a diverse range of biomedical entities relevant to systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The performance (accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score) of four natural-language processing (NLP) models (BioLinkBERT, BioBERT, KRISSBERT, PubMedBERT) and the large language model (LLM), GPT-4o, was evaluated using the human-annotated TrialSieve dataset. BioLinkBERT had the best accuracy (0.875) and recall (0.679) for biomedical entity labeling, whereas PubMedBERT had the best precision (0.614) and F1-score (0.639). Error analysis showed that NLP models trained on noisy, human-annotated data can match or, in most cases, surpass human performance. This finding highlights the feasibility of fully automating biomedical information extraction, even when relying on imperfectly annotated datasets. An annotator user study (n = 39) revealed significant (p < 0.05) gains in efficiency and human annotation accuracy with the unique TrialSieve tree-based annotation approach. In summary, TrialSieve provides a foundation to improve automated biomedical information extraction for frontend clinical research. 

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a complex and progressive neurodegenerative condition with significant societal impact. Understanding the temporal dynamics of its pathology is essential for advancing therapeutic interventions. Empirical and anatomical evidence indicates that network decoupling occurs as a result of gray matter atrophy. However, the scarcity of longitudinal clinical data presents challenges for computer-based simulations. To address this, a first-principles-based, physics-constrained Bayesian framework is proposed to model time-dependent connectome dynamics during neurodegeneration. This temporal diffusion network framework segments pathological progression into discrete time windows and optimizes connectome distributions for biomarker Bayesian regression, conceptualized as a learning problem. The framework employs a variational autoencoder-like architecture with computational enhancements to stabilize and improve training efficiency. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed temporal meta-models outperform traditional static diffusion models. The models were evaluated using both synthetic and real-world MRI and PET clinical datasets that measure amyloid beta, tau, and glucose metabolism. The framework successfully distinguishes normative aging from AD pathology. Findings provide novel support for the “decoupling” hypothesis and reveal eigenvalue-based evidence of pathological destabilization in AD. Future optimization of the model, integrated with real-world clinical data, is expected to improve applications in personalized medicine for AD and other neurodegenerative diseases. 

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has an interactive, multifactorial etiology that makes treatment success elusive. This study evaluates how regulatory dynamics impact disease progression and treatment. Computational models of wild-type (WT) and transgenic SOD1-G93A mouse physiology dynamics were built using the first-principles-based first-order feedback framework of dynamic meta-analysis with parameter optimization. Two in silico models were developed: a WT mouse model to simulate normal homeostasis and a SOD1-G93A ALS model to simulate ALS pathology dynamics and their response to in silico treatments. The model simulates functional molecular mechanisms for apoptosis, metal chelation, energetics, excitotoxicity, inflammation, oxidative stress, and proteomics using curated data from published SOD1-G93A mouse experiments. Temporal disease progression measures (rotarod, grip strength, body weight) were used for validation. Results illustrate that untreated SOD1-G93A ALS dynamics cannot maintain homeostasis due to a mathematical oscillating instability as determined by eigenvalue analysis. The onset and magnitude of homeostatic instability corresponded to disease onset and progression. Oscillations were associated with high feedback gain due to hypervigilant regulation. Multiple combination treatments stabilized the SOD1-G93A ALS mouse dynamics to near-normal WT homeostasis. However, treatment timing and effect size were critical to stabilization corresponding to therapeutic success. The dynamics-based approach redefines therapeutic strategies by emphasizing the restoration of homeostasis through precisely timed and stabilizing combination therapies, presenting a promising framework for application to other multifactorial neurodegenerative diseases. 

Alzheimer’s disease has a prolonged asymptomatic phase during which pathological changes accumulate before clinical symptoms emerge. This study aimed to stratify the risk of clinical disease to inform future disease-modifying treatments. Cerebrospinal fluid analysis from participants in the Emory Healthy Brain Study was used to classify individuals based on amyloid beta 42 (Aβ42), total tau (tTau) and phosphorylated tau (pTau) levels. Cognitively normal (CN), biomarker-positive (CN)/BM+individuals were identified using a tTau: Aβ42 ratio > 0.24, determined by Gaussian mixture models. CN/BM+ individuals (n = 134) were classified as having asymptomatic Alzheimer’s disease (AsymAD), while CN, biomarker-negative (CN/BM−) individuals served as controls (n = 134). Cognitively symptomatic, biomarker-positive individuals with an Alzheimer’s disease diagnosis confirmed by the Emory Cognitive Neurology Clinic were labelled as Alzheimer’s disease (n = 134). Study groups were matched for age, sex, race and education. Cerebrospinal fluid samples from these matched Emory Healthy Brain Study groups were analysed using targeted proteomics via selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. The targeted cerebrospinal fluid panel included 75 peptides from 58 unique proteins. Machine learning approaches identified a subset of eight peptides (ADQDTIR, AQALEQAK, ELQAAQAR, EPVAGDAVPGPK, IASNTQSR, LGADMEDVCGR, VVSSIEQK, YDNSLK) that distinguished between CN/BM− and symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease samples with a binary classifier area under the curve performance of 0.98. Using these eight peptides, Emory Healthy Brain Study AsymAD cases were further stratified into ‘Control-like’ and ‘Alzheimer’s disease-like’ subgroups, representing varying levels of risk for developing clinical disease. The eight peptides were evaluated in an independent dataset from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, effectively distinguishing CN/BM− from symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease cases (area under the curve = 0.89) and stratifying AsymAD individuals into control-like and Alzheimer’s disease-like subgroups (area under the curve = 0.89). In the absence of matched longitudinal data, an established cross-sectional event-based disease progression model was employed to assess the generalizability of these peptides for risk stratification. In summary, results from two independent modelling methods and datasets demonstrate that the identified eight peptides effectively stratify the risk of progression from asymptomatic to symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease. 

The overlapping molecular pathophysiology of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), and Frontotemporal Dementia (FTD) was analyzed using relationships from a knowledge graph of 33+ million biomedical journal articles. The unsupervised learning rank aggregation algorithm from SemNet 2.0 compared the most important amino acid, peptide, and protein (AAPP) nodes connected to AD, ALS, or FTD. FTD shared 99.9% of its nodes with ALS and AD; AD shared 64.2% of its nodes with FTD and ALS; and ALS shared 68.3% of its nodes with AD and FTD. The results were validated and mapped to functional biological processes using supervised human supervision and an external large language model. The overall percentages of mapped intersecting biological processes were as follows: inflammation and immune response, 19%; synapse and neurotransmission, 19%; cell cycle, 15%; protein aggregation, 12%; membrane regulation, 11%; stress response and regulation, 9%; and gene regulation, 4%. Once normalized for node count, biological mappings for cell cycle regulation and stress response were more prominent in the intersection of AD and FTD. Protein aggregation, gene regulation, and energetics were more prominent in the intersection of ALS and FTD. Synapse and neurotransmission, membrane regulation, and inflammation and immune response were greater at the intersection of AD and ALS. Given the extensive molecular pathophysiology overlap, small differences in regulation, genetic, or environmental factors likely shape the underlying expressed disease phenotype. The results help prioritize testable hypotheses for future clinical or experimental research. 

Event-based models (EBM) provide an important platform for modeling disease progression. This work successfully extends previous EBM approaches to work with larger sets of biomarkers while simultaneously modeling heterogeneity in disease progression trajectories. We develop and validate the s-SuStain method for scalable event-based modeling of disease progression subtypes using large numbers of features. s-SuStaIn is typically an order of magnitude faster than its predecessor (SuStaIn). Moreover, we perform a case study with s-SuStaIn using open access cross-sectional Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging (ADNI) data to stage AD patients into four subtypes based on dynamic disease progression. s-SuStaIn shows that the inferred subtypes and stages predict progression to AD among MCI subjects. The subtypes show difference in AD incidence-rates and reveal clinically meaningful progression trajectories when mapped to a brain atlas. 

Background: Datasets on rare diseases, like pediatric acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), have small sample sizes that hinder machine learning (ML). The objective was to develop an interpretable ML framework to elucidate actionable insights from small tabular rare disease datasets. Methods: The comprehensive framework employed optimized data imputation and sampling, supervised and unsupervised learning, and literature-based discovery (LBD). The framework was deployed to assess treatment-related infection in pediatric AML and ALL. Results: An interpretable decision tree classified the risk of infection as either “high risk” or “low risk” in pediatric ALL (n = 580) and AML (n = 132) with accuracy of ∼79%. Interpretable regression models predicted the discrete number of developed infections with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 2.26 for bacterial infections and an MAE of 1.29 for viral infections. Features that best explained the development of infection were the chemotherapy regimen, cancer cells in the central nervous system at initial diagnosis, chemotherapy course, leukemia type, Down syndrome, race, and National Cancer Institute risk classification. Finally, SemNet 2.0, an open-source LBD software that links relationships from 33+ million PubMed articles, identified additional features for the prediction of infection, like glucose, iron, neutropenia-reducing growth factors, and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Conclusions: The developed ML framework enabled state-of-the-art, interpretable predictions using rare disease tabular datasets. ML model performance baselines were successfully produced to predict infection in pediatric AML and ALL.