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The third data release (DR3) of Gaia has provided a fivefold increase in the number of radial velocity measurements of stars, as well as a stark improvement in parallax and proper motion measurements. To help with studies that seek to test models and interpret Gaia DR3, we present nine Gaia synthetic surveys, based on three solar positions in three Milky Way-mass galaxies of theLattesuite of theFire-2 cosmological simulations. These synthetic surveys match the selection function, radial velocity measurements, and photometry of Gaia DR3, adapting the code baseAnanke, previously used to match the Gaia DR2 release by Sanderson et al. The synthetic surveys are publicly available and can be found athttp://ananke.hub.yt/. Similarly to the previous release ofAnanke, these surveys are based on cosmological simulations and thus are able to model nonequilibrium dynamical effects, making them a useful tool in testing and interpreting Gaia DR3.

 

Observational studies are finding stars believed to be relics of the earliest stages of hierarchical mass assembly of the Milky Way (i.e. proto-galaxy). In this work, we contextualize these findings by studying the masses, ages, spatial distributions, morphology, kinematics, and chemical compositions of proto-galaxy populations from the 13 Milky Way (MW)-mass galaxies from the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations. Our findings indicate that proto-Milky Way populations: (i) can have a stellar mass range between 1 × 108 < M⋆ < 2 × 1010 [M⊙], a virial mass range between 3 × 1010 < M⋆ < 6 × 1011 [M⊙], and be as young as 8 ≲ Age ≲ 12.8 [Gyr] (1 ≲ z ≲ 6); (ii) are pre-dominantly centrally concentrated, with $\sim 50~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the stars contained within 5–10 kpc; (iii) on average show weak but systematic net rotation in the plane of the host’s disc at z = 0 (i.e. 0.25 ≲ 〈κ/κdisc〉 ≲ 0.8); (iv) present [α/Fe]-[Fe/H] compositions that overlap with the metal-poor tail of the host’s old disc; and (v) tend to assemble slightly earlier in Local Group-like environments than in systems in isolation. Interestingly, we find that $\sim 60~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of the proto-Milky Way galaxies are comprised by 1 dominant system (1/5 ≲M⋆/M⋆, proto-MilkyWay≲ 4/5) and 4–5 lower mass systems (M⋆/M⋆, proto-MilkyWay≲ 1/10); the other $\sim 40~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ are comprised by 2 dominant systems and 3–4 lower mass systems. These massive/dominant proto-Milky Way fragments can be distinguished from the lower mass ones in chemical-kinematic samples, but appear (qualitatively) indistinguishable from one another. Our results could help observational studies disentangle if the Milky Way formed from one or two dominant systems.

 

The shape and orientation of dark matter (DM) halos are sensitive to the microphysics of the DM particles, yet in many mass models, the symmetry axes of the Milky Way’s DM halo are often assumed to be aligned with the symmetry axes of the stellar disk. This is well motivated for the inner DM halo, but not for the outer halo. We use zoomed-in cosmological baryonic simulations from the Latte suite of FIRE-2 Milky Way–mass galaxies to explore the evolution of the DM halo’s orientation with radius and time, with or without a major merger with a Large Magellanic Cloud analog, and when varying the DM model. In three of the four cold DM halos we examine, the orientation of the halo minor axis diverges from the stellar disk vector by more than 20° beyond about 30 galactocentric kpc, reaching a maximum of 30°–90°, depending on the individual halo’s formation history. In identical simulations using a model of self-interacting DM withσ= 1 cm²g⁻¹, the halo remains aligned with the stellar disk out to ∼200–400 kpc. Interactions with massive satellites (M≳ 4 × 10¹⁰M_⊙at pericenter;M≳ 3.3 × 10¹⁰M_⊙at infall) affect the orientation of the halo significantly, aligning the halo’s major axis with the satellite galaxy from the disk to the virial radius. The relative orientation of the halo and disk beyond 30 kpc is a potential diagnostic of self-interacting DM, if the effects of massive satellites can be accounted for.

 

A variety of observational campaigns seek to test dark matter models by measuring dark matter subhaloes at low masses. Despite their predicted lack of stars, these subhaloes may be detectable through gravitational lensing or via their gravitational perturbations on stellar streams. To set measurable expectations for subhalo populations within Lambda cold dark matter, we examine 11 Milky Way (MW)-mass haloes from the FIRE-2 baryonic simulations, quantifying the counts and orbital fluxes for subhaloes with properties relevant to stellar stream interactions: masses down to $10^{6}\, \text{M}_\odot$, distances ≲50 kpc of the galactic centre, across z = 0 − 1 (tlookback = 0–8 Gyr). We provide fits to our results and their dependence on subhalo mass, distance, and lookback time, for use in (semi)analytical models. A typical MW-mass halo contains ≈16 subhaloes $\gt 10^{7}\, \text{M}_\odot$ (≈1 subhalo $\gt 10^{8}\, \text{M}_\odot$) within 50 kpc at z ≈ 0. We compare our results with dark matter-only versions of the same simulations: because they lack a central galaxy potential, they overpredict subhalo counts by 2–10×, more so at smaller distances. Subhalo counts around a given MW-mass galaxy declined over time, being ≈10× higher at z = 1 than at z ≈ 0. Subhaloes have nearly isotropic orbital velocity distributions at z ≈ 0. Across our simulations, we also identified 4 analogues of Large Magellanic Cloud satellite passages; these analogues enhance subhalo counts by 1.4–2.1 times, significantly increasing the expected subhalo population around the MW today. Our results imply an interaction rate of ∼5 per Gyr for a stream like GD-1, sufficient to make subhalo–stream interactions a promising method of measuring dark subhaloes.

 

We analyse stellar streams in action-angle coordinates combined with recent local direct acceleration measurements to provide joint constraints on the potential of our galaxy. Our stream analysis uses the Kullback–Leibler divergence with a likelihood analysis based on the two-point correlation function. We provide joint constraints from pulsar accelerations and stellar streams for local and global parameters that describe the potential of the Milky Way (MW). Our goal is to build an “acceleration ladder,” where direct acceleration measurements that are currently limited in dynamic range are combined with indirect techniques that can access a much larger volume of the MW. To constrain the MW potential with stellar streams, we consider the Palomar 5, Orphan, Nyx, Helmi, and GD1 streams. Of the potential models that we have considered here, the preferred potential for the streams is a two-component Staeckel potential. We also compare the vertical accelerations from stellar streams and pulsar timing, defining the function$f(z)={\alpha }_{1\mathrm{pulsar}}z-\frac{\partial \mathrm{\Phi }}{\partial z}$, where Φ is the MW potential determined from stellar streams andα_{1 pulsar}zis the vertical acceleration determined from pulsar timing observations. Our analysis indicates that the Oort limit determined from streams is consistently (regardless of the choice of potential) lower than that determined from pulsar timing observations. The calibration we have derived here may be used to correct the estimate of the acceleration from stellar streams.

 

In the Gaia era it is increasingly apparent that traditional static, parameterized models are insufficient to describe the mass distribution of our complex, dynamically evolving Milky Way (MW). In this work, we compare different time-evolving and time-independent representations of the gravitational potentials of simulated MW-mass galaxies from the FIRE-2 suite of cosmological-baryonic simulations. Using these potentials, we calculate actions for star particles in tidal streams around three galaxies with varying merger histories at each snapshot from 7 Gyr ago to the present day. We determine the action-space coherence preserved by each model using the Kullback–Leibler divergence to gauge the degree of clustering in actions and the relative stability of the clusters over time. We find that all models produce a clustered action space for simulations with no significant mergers. However, a massive (mass ratio prior to infall more similar than 1:8) interacting galaxy not present in the model will result in mischaracterized orbits for stars most affected by the interaction. The locations of the action space clusters (i.e., the orbits of the stream stars) are only preserved by the time-evolving model, while the time-independent models can lose significant amounts of information as soon as 0.5–1 Gyr ago, even if the system does not undergo a significant merger. Our results imply that reverse-integration of stream orbits in the MW using a fixed potential is likely to give incorrect results if integrated longer than 0.5 Gyr into the past.

 

The orbits of satellite galaxies encode rich information about their histories. We investigate the orbital dynamics and histories of satellite galaxies around Milky Way (MW)-mass host galaxies using the FIRE-2 cosmological simulations, which, as previous works have shown, produce satellite mass functions and spatial distributions that broadly agree with observations. We first examine trends in orbital dynamics at z = 0, including total velocity, specific angular momentum, and specific total energy: the time of infall into the MW-mass halo primarily determines these orbital properties. We then examine orbital histories, focusing on the lookback time of first infall into a host halo and pericentre distances, times, and counts. Roughly 37 per cent of galaxies with $M_{\rm star}\lesssim 10^7\, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ were ‘pre-processed’ as a satellite in a lower-mass group, typically $\approx 2.7\, {\rm Gyr}$ before falling into the MW-mass halo. Half of all satellites at z = 0 experienced multiple pericentres about their MW-mass host. Remarkably, for most (67 per cent) of these satellites, their most recent pericentre was not their minimum pericentre: the minimum typically was ∼40 per cent smaller and occurred $\sim 6\, {\rm Gyr}$ earlier. These satellites with growing pericentres appear to have multiple origins: for about half, their specific angular momentum gradually increased over time, while for the other half, most rapidly increased near their first apocentre, suggesting that a combination of a time-dependent MW-mass halo potential and dynamical perturbations in the outer halo caused these satellites’ pericentres to grow. Our results highlight the limitations of idealized, static orbit modelling, especially for pericentre histories.

 

We obtained Keck/DEIMOS spectra of 556 individual red giant branch stars in four spectroscopic fields spanning 13−31 projected kpc along the northeast (NE) shelf of M31. We present the first detection of a complete wedge pattern in the space of projected M31-centric radial distance versus line-of-sight velocity for this feature, which includes the returning stream component of the shelf. This wedge pattern agrees with expectations of a tidal shell formed in a radial merger and provides strong evidence in favor of predictions of Giant Stellar Stream (GSS) formation models in which the NE shelf originates from the second orbital wrap of the tidal debris. The observed concentric wedge patterns of the NE, west (W), and southeast (SE) shelves corroborate this interpretation independently of the models. We do not detect a kinematical signature in the NE shelf region corresponding to an intact progenitor core, favoring GSS formation models in which the progenitor is completely disrupted. The shelf’s photometric metallicity ([Fe/H]_phot) distribution implies that it is dominated by tidal material, as opposed to the phase-mixed stellar halo or the disk. The metallicity distribution ([Fe/H]_phot= −0.42 ± 0.01) also matches the GSS, and consequently the W and SE shelves, further supporting a direct physical association between the tidal features.

 

Abstract We present the first detailed comparison of populations of dwarf galaxy stellar streams in cosmological simulations and the Milky Way. In particular, we compare streams identified around 13 Milky Way analogs in the FIRE-2 simulations to streams observed by the Southern Stellar Stream Spectroscopic Survey ( S 5 ). For an accurate comparison, we produce mock Dark Energy Survey (DES) observations of the FIRE streams and estimate the detectability of their tidal tails and progenitors. The number and stellar mass distributions of detectable stellar streams is consistent between observations and simulations. However, there are discrepancies in the distributions of pericenters and apocenters, with the detectable FIRE streams, on average, forming at larger pericenters (out to >110 kpc) and surviving only at larger apocenters (≳40 kpc) than those observed in the Milky Way. We find that the population of high-stellar-mass dwarf galaxy streams in the Milky Way is incomplete. Interestingly, a large fraction of the FIRE streams would only be detected as intact satellites in DES-like observations, since their tidal tails have too low surface brightness to be detectable. We thus predict a population of yet-undetected tidal tails around Milky Way satellites, as well as a population of fully undetected low-surface-brightness stellar streams, and estimate their detectability with the Rubin Observatory. Finally, we discuss the causes and implications of the discrepancies between the stream populations in FIRE and the Milky Way, and explore future avenues for tests of satellite disruption in cosmological simulations. 

Abstract We describe a public data release of the FIRE-2 cosmological zoom-in simulations of galaxy formation (available at http://flathub.flatironinstitute.org/fire ) from the Feedback In Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. FIRE-2 simulations achieve parsec-scale resolution to explicitly model the multiphase interstellar medium while implementing direct models for stellar evolution and feedback, including stellar winds, core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae, radiation pressure, photoionization, and photoelectric heating. We release complete snapshots from three suites of simulations. The first comprises 20 simulations that zoom in on 14 Milky Way (MW)–mass galaxies, five SMC/LMC-mass galaxies, and four lower-mass galaxies including one ultrafaint; we release 39 snapshots across z = 0–10. The second comprises four massive galaxies, with 19 snapshots across z = 1–10. Finally, a high-redshift suite comprises 22 simulations, with 11 snapshots across z = 5–10. Each simulation also includes dozens of resolved lower-mass (satellite) galaxies in its zoom-in region. Snapshots include all stored properties for all dark matter, gas, and star particles, including 11 elemental abundances for stars and gas, and formation times (ages) of star particles. We also release accompanying (sub)halo catalogs, which include galaxy properties and member star particles. For the simulations to z = 0, including all MW-mass galaxies, we release the formation coordinates and an “ex situ” flag for all star particles, pointers to track particles across snapshots, catalogs of stellar streams, and multipole basis expansions for the halo mass distributions. We describe publicly available python packages for reading and analyzing these simulations.