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Abstract A recent publication (Mason et al. in Science 376:261, 2022a) suggested that nitrogen (N) availability has declined as a consequence of multiple ongoing components of anthropogenic global change. This suggestion is controversial, because human alteration of the global N cycle is substantial and has driven much-increased fixation of N globally. We used a simple model that has been validated across a climate gradient in Hawai ‘i to test the possibility of a widespread decline in N availability, the evidence supporting it, and the possible mechanisms underlying it. This analysis showed that a decrease in δ¹⁵N is not sufficient evidence for a decline in N availability, because δ¹⁵N in ecosystems reflects both the isotope ratios in inputs of N to the ecosystem AND fractionation of N isotopes as N cycles, with enrichment of the residual N in the ecosystem caused by greater losses of N by the fractionating pathways that are more important in N-rich sites. However, there is other evidence for declining N availability that is independent of¹⁵N and that suggests a widespread decline in N availability. We evaluated whether and how components of anthropogenic global change could cause declining N availability. Earlier work had demonstrated that both increases in the variability of precipitation due to climate change and ecosystem-level disturbance could drive uncontrollable losses of N that reduce N availability and could cause persistent N limitation at equilibrium. Here we modelled climate-change-driven increases in temperature and increasing atmospheric concentrations of CO₂. We show that increasing atmospheric CO₂concentrations can drive non-equilibrium decreases in N availability and cause the development of N limitation, while the effects of increased temperature appear to be relatively small and short-lived. These environmental changes may cause reductions in N availability over the vast areas of Earth that are not affected by high rates of atmospheric deposition and/or N enrichment associated with urban and agricultural land use. 

Abstract Resilience is the ability of ecosystems to maintain function while experiencing perturbation. Globally, forests are experiencing disturbances of unprecedented quantity, type, and magnitude that may diminish resilience. Early warning signals are statistical properties of data whose increase over time may provide insights into decreasing resilience, but there have been few applications to forests. We quantified four early warning signals (standard deviation, lag-1 autocorrelation, skewness, and kurtosis) across detrended time series of multiple ecosystem state variables at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA and analyzed how these signals have changed over time. Variables were collected over periods from 25 to 55 years from both experimentally manipulated and reference areas and were aggregated to annual timesteps for analysis. Long-term (>50 year) increases in early warning signals of stream calcium, a key biogeochemical variable at the site, illustrated declining resilience after decades of acid deposition, but only in watersheds that had previously been harvested. Trends in early warning signals of stream nitrate, a critical nutrient and water pollutant, likewise exhibited symptoms of declining resilience but in all watersheds. Temporal trends in early warning signals of some of groups of trees, insects, and birds also indicated changing resilience, but this pattern differed among, and even within, groups. Overall, ∼60% of early warning signals analyzed indicated decreasing resilience. Most of these signals occurred in skewness and kurtosis, suggesting ‘flickering’ behavior that aligns with emerging evidence of the forest transitioning into an oligotrophic condition. The other ∼40% of early warning signals indicated increasing or unchanging resilience. Interpretation of early warning signals in the context of system specific knowledge is therefore essential. They can be useful indicators for some key ecosystem variables; however, uncertainties in other variables highlight the need for further development of these tools in well-studied, long-term research sites. 

Abstract Microbial biomass is known to decrease with soil drying and to increase after rewetting due to physiological assimilation and substrate limitation under fluctuating moisture conditions, but how the effects of changing moisture conditions vary between dry and wet environments is unclear. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis to assess the effects of elevated and reduced soil moisture on microbial biomass C (MBC) and microbial biomass N (MBN) across a broad range of forest sites between dry and wet regions. We found that the influence of both elevated and reduced soil moisture on MBC and MBN concentrations in forest soils was greater in dry than in wet regions. The influence of altered soil moisture on MBC and MBN concentrations increased significantly with the manipulation intensity but decreased with the length of experimental period, with a dramatic increase observed under a very short‐term precipitation pulse. Moisture effect did not differ between coarse‐textured and fine‐textured soils. Precipitation intensity, experimental duration, and site standardized precipitation index (dry or wet climate) were more important than edaphic factors (i.e., initial water content, bulk density, and clay content) in determining microbial biomass in response to altered moisture in forest soils. Different responses of microbial biomass in forest soils between dry and wet regions should be incorporated into models to evaluate how changes in the amount, timing, and intensity of precipitation affect soil biogeochemical processes. 

Abstract The Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (HBEF) was established in 1955 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service out of concerns about the effects of logging increasing flooding and erosion. To address this issue, within the HBEF hydrological and micrometeorological monitoring was initiated in small watersheds designated for harvesting experiments. The Hubbard Brook Ecosystem Study (HBES) originated in 1963, with the idea of using the small watershed approach to study element fluxes and cycling and the response of forest ecosystems to disturbances, such as forest management practices and air pollution. Early evidence of acid rain was documented at the HBEF and research by scientists at the site helped shape acid rain mitigation policies. New lines of investigation at the HBEF have built on the long legacy of watershed research resulting in a shift from comparing inputs and outputs and quantifying pools and fluxes to a more mechanistic understanding of ecosystem processes within watersheds. For example, hydropedological studies have shed light on linkages between hydrologic flow paths and soil development that provide valuable perspective for managing forests and understanding stream water quality. New high frequency in situ stream chemistry sensors are providing insights about extreme events and diurnal patterns that were indiscernible with traditional weekly sampling. Additionally, tools are being developed for visual and auditory data exploration and discovery by a broad audience. Given the unprecedented environmental change that is occurring, data from the small watersheds at the HBEF are more relevant now than ever and will continue to serve as a basis for sound environmental decision‐making. 

Identifying which aspects of global environmental change are driving observed ecosystem process responses is a great challenge. Here, we address how long-term (10-25 year) alterations in soil moisture, and nitrogen (N) oligotrophication (i.e. decreases in soil N availability relative to plant demand), alter the production of plant-available N via net mineralization and nitrification in a northern hardwood forest. Our objectives were to determine whether soil moisture has changed over the past decade and whether N cycle processes have become less sensitive to soil moisture over time due to N oligotrophication. We used long-term data sets from several related studies to show: (i) increasing winter soil temperatures and declining summer soil moisture from late 2010 into 2024; (ii) reductions in sensitivity of N cycling rates to soil moisture, and (iii) declining moisture-adjusted N cycle processes (the ratio of rate of N process:soil moisture) over time in both summer and winter. These changes suggest continued reductions in N availability to plants in these forests, with potential effects on forest productivity and response to disturbance.