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Abstract Previous studies have suggested that variability in the Gulf Stream (GS) region can lead North Atlantic atmospheric variability. However, it remains unclear what GS characteristic is most important in driving this lead time. Here, we show that the GS sensible heat flux (SHF) gradient specifically leads the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) by 1 month. This lag relationship occurs only when climatological sea‐surface temperature and SHF gradients are largest in late winter. Further analysis reveals that fine‐scale gradients (∼50 km) are critical. A month prior to a negative NAO, stronger than normal diabatic frontogenesis associated with anomalously strong SHF gradients is observed over the separated GS region. This is collocated with a North Atlantic eddy‐driven jet located in its Southern regime. These results suggest that knowledge of fine‐scale air‐sea heat flux gradients in late winter can potentially provide useful information about the NAO in weather forecasts and climate prediction systems. 

Abstract Air‐sea heat and moisture fluxes modulate the surface energy balance and oceanic and atmospheric heat transport across all timescales. Spatial gradients of these fluxes, on a multitude of spatial scales, also have significant impacts on the ocean and atmosphere. Nevertheless, analysis of these gradients, and discussion regarding our ability to represent them, is relatively absent within the community. This letter discusses their importance and presents a wintertime climatology. Their sensitivity to spatiotemporal scale and choice of data set is also examined in the mid‐latitudes. A lead‐lag analysis illustrates that wintertime air‐sea heat flux gradients in the Gulf Stream can precede the North Atlantic Oscillation by ∼1 month. A lack of observations and thus validation of air‐sea heat flux gradients represents a significant gap in our understanding of how air‐sea processes affect weather and climate, and warrants increased attention from the observational and modeling communities. 

Abstract The Gulf Stream's (GS) impact on the marine boundary layer (MBL) is well established, yet the mechanisms and timescales through which it affects the upper‐troposphere and contributes to precipitation are debatable. Using a high‐resolution regional atmospheric model, we shed light on the impact of ocean intrinsic variability (OIV) along GS on midlatitude‐atmosphere. Taking advantage of a 24‐member ensemble of ocean model integrations, we devised a novel experimental setup where the same weather system feels different realizations of GS sea surface temperature (SST). We introduce the “Eddy Recharge‐Frontal Lift” (ERFL) mechanism, highlighting the joint importance of synoptic variability and boundary layer processes. ERFL mechanism proposes that OIV recharges/discharges MBL with moisture and heat, while convergence associated with passing atmospheric‐fronts uplifts these MBL‐trapped anomalies to upper‐troposphere and imprints on precipitation in surprisingly short periods (a month). The impact of OIV on precipitation depends on the background mean SST. 

Abstract This study seeks to characterize the development of atmospheric fronts during the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) as a function of their evolution during ET. Composite histograms indicate that the magnitude of the lower atmospheric frontogenesis and average sea‐surface temperature is different based on the nature of the TC's structural change during ET. We find that the development of cold and warm fronts evolves as expected from conceptual models of extratropical cyclones. Composites of these fronts relative to the completion of ET show that azimuth, storm motion, and deep‐layer shear all appear to have equal influence on the frontal positions. TCs that have more fronts at the time of ET onset complete ET more quickly, suggesting that pre‐existing fronts before ET begins may contribute to a shorter ET duration. The orientations of fronts at ET completion in the North Atlantic and west Pacific align with the climatological distributions of the sea‐surface temperatures associated with the western boundary currents in each of those basins. These results provide a perspective on the locations of frontal development within TCs undergoing ET. 

Abstract This study investigates Gulf Stream (GS) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic. Composites of western North Atlantic TCs indicate that GS SSTs are warmer, and both large‐ and fine‐scale SST gradients are weaker than average, for TCs that begin the ET process but do not complete it, compared with TCs that do. Further analysis suggests that the associated fine‐scale GS SST gradient anomalies are related to atmospheric processes but not the same as those that are typically associated with the onset of ET. As sensible heat flux gradients and surface diabatic frontogenesis are shown to generally scale with the local SST gradient strength, these results suggest that knowledge of the fine‐scale GS SST gradient in the weeks prior to the arrival of a TC might potentially provide additional information regarding the likelihood of that system completing ET. 

Abstract We describe a form of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability that we believe has not previously appeared in observations or models. It is found in an ensemble of eddy‐resolving North Atlantic simulations that the AMOC frequently reverses in sign at ∼35°N with gyre‐wide anomalies in size and that reach throughout the water column. The duration of each reversal is roughly 1 month. The reversals are part of the annual AMOC cycle occurring in boreal winter, although not all years feature an actual reversal in sign. The occurrence of the reversals appears in our ensemble mean, suggesting it is a forced feature of the circulation. A partial explanation is found in an Ekman response to wind stress anomalies. Model ensemble simulations run with different combinations of climatological and realistic forcings argue that it is the atmospheric forcing specifically that results in the reversals, despite the signals extending into the deep ocean. 

Abstract The strong sea‐surface temperature (SST) gradient associated with the Gulf Stream (GS) is widely acknowledged to play an important role in shaping mid‐latitude weather and climate. Despite this, an index for the GS SST gradient has not yet been standardized in the literature. This paper introduces a monthly index for the large‐scale SST gradient across the separated GS based on the time‐varying GS position detected from sea‐surface height. Analysis suggests that the variations in the monthly average SST gradient throughout the year result primarily from SST variability to the north of the GS, with little contribution from SST to the south. The index exhibits a weak periodicity at ∼2 years. Sea level pressure and turbulent heat flux patterns suggest that variability in the large‐scale SST gradient is related to atmospheric (rather than oceanic) forcing. Ocean‐to‐atmosphere feedback does not persist throughout the year, but there is some evidence of wintertime feedback. 

Abstract Reanalysis datasets are frequently used in the study of atmospheric variability owing to their length of record and gridded global coverage. In the midlatitudes, much of the day-to-day atmospheric variability is associated with atmospheric fronts. These fronts are also responsible for the majority of precipitation in the midlatitudes, and are often associated with extreme weather, flooding, and wildfire activity. As such, it is important that identification of fronts and their associated rainfall remains as consistent as possible between studies. Nevertheless, it is often the case that only one reanalysis dataset and only one objective diagnostic for the detection of atmospheric fronts is used. By applying two different frontal identification methods across the shared time period of eight reanalysis datasets (1980–2001), it is found that the individual identification of fronts and frontal precipitation is significantly affected by both the choice of identification method and dataset. This is shown to subsequently impact the climatologies of both frontal frequency and frontal precipitation globally with significant regional differences as well. For example, for one diagnostic, the absolute multireanalysis range in the global mean frontal frequency and the proportion of precipitation attributed to atmospheric fronts are 12% and 69%, respectively. A percentage reduction of 77% and 81%, respectively, in these absolute multireanalysis ranges occurs, however, upon regridding all datasets to the same coarser grid. Therefore, these findings have important implications for any study on precipitation variability and not just those that consider atmospheric fronts. 

Abstract The “eddying” ocean, recognized for several decades, has been the focus of much observational and theoretical research. We here describe a generalization for the analysis of eddy energy, based on the use of ensembles, that addresses two key related issues: the definition of an “eddy” and the general computation of energy spectra. An ensemble identifies eddies as the unpredictable component of the flow, and permits the scale decomposition of their energy in inhomogeneous and non‐stationary settings. We present two distinct, but equally valid, spectral estimates: one is similar to classical Fourier spectra, the other reminiscent of classical empirical orthogonal function analysis. Both satisfy Parseval's equality and thus can be interpreted as length‐scale dependent energy decompositions. The issue of “tapering” or “windowing” of the data, used in traditional approaches, is also discussed. We apply the analyses to a mesoscale “resolving” (1/12°) ensemble of the separated North Atlantic Gulf Stream. Our results reveal highly anisotropic spectra in the Gulf Stream and zones of both agreement and disagreement with theoretically expected spectral shapes. In general, we find spectral slopes that fall off faster than the steepest slope expected from quasi‐geostrophic theory. 

Abstract High-resolution observations have demonstrated the presence of strong time-mean near-surface wind convergence (NSWC) anchored across oceanic frontal zones, such as the western boundary currents. Initial analyses appeared to show a close association between this time-mean NSWC and time-mean properties of the underlying sea surface temperature (SST), such as the gradients and second derivatives (e.g., Laplacian of SST), acting through pressure-adjustment and vertical-mixing mechanisms. However, a series of recent papers have revealed the instantaneous NSWC to be dominated by atmospheric fronts and have suggested the importance of air–sea processes occurring instead on shorter, synoptic time scales. In this paper, using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset in the Gulf Stream region, we aim to reconcile these viewpoints by investigating the spatial and temporal dependence of NSWC and its relationship to SST. It is revealed that while atmospheric frontal processes govern the day-to-day variability of NSWC, the relatively weak but persistent pressure-adjustment and vertical-mixing mechanisms provide lower-frequency modulations in conditions both with and without atmospheric fronts. In addition to their temporal characteristics, each mechanism is shown through spectral analysis to dominate on specific spatial scales. In light of recent work that has tied remote atmospheric responses to NSWC anomalies in western boundary current regions, these results emphasize the importance of oceanic frontal zones for atmospheric variability on all spatiotemporal scales.