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Abstract BackgroundPrescribed fire is an essential tool employed by natural resource managers to serve ecological and fuel treatment objectives of fire management. However, limited operational resources, environmental conditions, and competing goals result in a finite number of burn days, which need to be allocated toward maximizing the overall benefits attainable with fire management. Burn prioritization models must balance multiple management objectives at landscape scales, often providing coarse resolution information. We developed a decision-support framework and a burn prioritization model for wetlands and wildland-urban interfaces using high-resolution mapping in Everglades National Park (Florida, USA). The model included criteria relevant to the conservation of plant communities, the protection of endangered faunal species, the ability to safely contain fires and minimize emissions harmful to the public, the protection of cultural, archeological, and recreational resources, and the control of invasive plant species. A geographic information system was used to integrate the multiple factors affecting fire management into a single spatially and temporally explicit management model, which provided a quantitative computations-alternative to decision making that is usually based on qualitative assessments. ResultsOur model outputs were 50-m resolution grid maps showing burn prioritization scores for each pixel. During the 50 years of simulated burn unit prioritization used for model evaluation, the mean burned surface corresponded to 256 ± 160 km2 y−1, which is 12% of the total area within Everglades National Park eligible for prescribed fires. Mean predicted fire return intervals (FRIs) varied among ecosystem types: marshes (9.9 ± 1.7 years), prairies (7.3 ± 1.9 years), and pine rocklands (4.0 ± 0.7 years). Mean predicted FRIs also varied among the critical habitats for species of special concern:Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis(7.4 ± 1.5 years),Anaea troglodyta floridalisandStrymon acis bartramibutterflies (3.9 ± 0.2 years), andEumops floridanus(6.5 ± 2.9 years). While mean predicted fire return intervals accurately fit conservation objectives, baseline fire return intervals, calculated using the last 20 years of data, did not. Fire intensity and patchiness potential indices were estimated to further support fire management. ConclusionsBy performing finer-scale spatial computations, our burn prioritization model can support diverse fire regimes across large wetland landscape such as Everglades National Park. Our model integrates spatial variability in ecosystem types and habitats of endangered species, while satisfying the need to contain fires and protect cultural heritage and infrastructure. Burn prioritization models can allow the achievement of target fire return intervals for higher-priority conservation objectives, while also considering finer-scale fire characteristics, such as patchiness, seasonality, intensity, and severity. Decision-support frameworks and higher-resolution models are needed for managing landscape-scale complexity of fires given rapid environmental changes. 

ABSTRACT ObjectiveEnvironmental variability as a factor of climate change and water management can result in fluctuations in the abundance and distribution of fish populations from year to year, with either negative or positive effects depending on behavioral and physiological requirements and the ability to adapt to changing conditions. Variability in water levels can also influence prey availability, affecting predator abundance in seasonal foraging areas. In this study, our objective was to better understand how environmental variation has affected the relative abundance of Common Snook Centropomus undecimalis in the freshwater/estuarine habitats of Everglades National Park. MethodsElectrofishing data over 17 years (2004–2021) were analyzed in relation to a long-term time-series of environmental conditions, including water level, temperature, salinity, and precipitation. We used seasonal and trend decomposition via locally estimated scatterplot smoothing to isolate the effect of seasonality and identify nonlinear trends in the environmental time-series data and Common Snook abundance and Mann–Kendall trend tests to identify monotonic and directional trends over time. To identify the factors that best explain variation in Common Snook abundance, we used generalized linear models to relate relative abundance to the environmental covariates. ResultsWe found significant long-term trends of increasing water level and temperature and decreasing salinity in the study area. The generalized linear models indicated that Common Snook abundance had a negative relationship with water level and a positive relationship with temperature. Common Snook abundance over the 17 years of sampling was relatively stable; however, increases/decreases in Common Snook abundance corresponded to both seasonal changes in water level and the periodic occurrence of extreme conditions (e.g., cold spells, droughts, prolonged dry-season flooding). ConclusionsUnderstanding how past environmental change has affected fish populations can provide insight into how they may respond to future conditions. Our results suggest that water management decisions that maintain seasonal patterns of high/low water levels can potentially mitigate climate-driven shifts by providing conditions that promote prey production in the wet season and foraging opportunities in the dry season, increasing the relative abundance of ecologically and recreationally important species such as Common Snook. 

ABSTRACT ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to quantify the effects of temperature, hydrology, and body size on the diet and energy requirements of a generalist predator, Common Snook Centropomus undecimalis (hereafter, “snook”), to gain a better understanding of predator–prey dynamics in the wake of global change. We first ask how temperature, hydrology, and body size influence the occurrence of fish, invertebrates, and empty stomachs in the diet of snook. Next, we model the energetic requirements of snook as a function of body size and temperature. Last, we use predation simulations to test how changes in prey quality, together with snook energy requirements, interact to shape prey demand. MethodsThis study used long-term empirical diet information for snook that were collected from the Shark River, Everglades National Park, alongside models of consumer energetic needs and predation simulations. We used a set of generalized linear models to determine the relationships between snook diet and a suite of predictor variables representing hydrology, temperature, and body size. Models of consumer energetic requirements were used to better understand the total daily caloric needs of snook across a range of temperature and body sizes relative to the available energy in the fish and invertebrate prey that were collected from the system. Last, we conducted predation simulations to highlight the effects of variable diet scenarios on the foraging behaviors that are required to meet the total daily energetic requirements of snook at various temperatures and body sizes. ResultsSnook were observed consuming less fish, coupled with an increased likelihood of empty stomachs, at higher temperatures. Reliance on invertebrate taxa increased at high marsh stages. In addition to marsh stage, smaller-bodied individuals were more likely to consume invertebrates. The predation simulations revealed that snook that consumed invertebrate-dominated diets required greater prey biomass as well as an increased number of individual prey items to meet their daily energetic requirements relative to fish that consumed diets that contain fish. However, if snook maintained even a small proportion of fish in their diet, it substantially reduced the number and biomass of prey needed to meet their energetic requirements. ConclusionsOur predation simulations indicated that snook should select for high-quality fish prey as temperatures warm. However, the empirical data revealed a decrease in the probability of high-quality fish prey in the diets of snook. Furthermore, the empirical diet data showed that low-quality invertebrate prey were more likely to be seen in the diets of snook at high water levels. As temperatures increase and hydrology becomes increasingly variable because of global change, snook will likely need to consume larger quantities of lower quality prey (i.e., compensatory foraging) or disperse to forage in more optimal habitats. These results highlight the dynamic interplay between environmental conditions and consumer energetic needs for shaping the foraging ecology of a generalist predator. 

Abstract Embracing local knowledge is vital to conserve and manage biodiversity, yet frameworks to do so are lacking. We need to understand which, and how many knowledge holders are needed to ensure that management recommendations arising from local knowledge are not skewed towards the most vocal individuals. Here, we apply a Wisdom of Crowds framework to a data-poor recreational catch-and-release fishery, where individuals interact with natural resources in different ways. We aimed to test whether estimates of fishing quality from diverse groups (multiple ages and years of experience), were better than estimates provided by homogenous groups and whether thresholds exist for the number of individuals needed to capture estimates. We found that diversity matters; by using random subsampling combined with saturation principles, we determine that targeting 31% of the survey sample size captured 75% of unique responses. Estimates from small diverse subsets of this size outperformed most estimates from homogenous groups; sufficiently diverse small crowds are just as effective as large crowds in estimating ecological state. We advocate for more diverse knowledge holders in local knowledge research and application. 

Abstract Hurricanes are among the most destructive natural disturbances in mangroves, altering community structure and ecological processes. Despite their impacts, few studies have assessed changes in belowground root processes (i.e., biomass, production, decomposition) following major hurricanes. Here, we quantified and compared changes in mangrove root processes in the Florida Coastal Everglades before (pre‐hurricane period: 2000–2004) and after post‐hurricane periods (post‐Wilma, May 2012; immediate‐post‐Irma, March 2018; post‐Irma, March 2023). We assessed spatiotemporal patterns in root dynamics across four mangrove sites (upstream, midstream, downstream, and estuary mouth) along a well‐defined soil phosphorus fertility gradient in the Shark River estuary. Root biomass carbon stocks were highest in the immediate‐post‐Irma and post‐Irma periods. The midstream site had the highest root C stocks, whereas the downstream site had the lowest across periods. Root size class distribution shifted considerably post‐hurricane, with fine roots accounting for 32% (post‐Wilma) to 66% (immediate‐post‐Irma and post‐Irma) of the total root C stocks across sites. However, root production did not vary among periods at any site, although estimates were higher midstream compared to upstream or downstream. Root total nitrogen and P were ~1.3 times higher in the post‐Irma period compared to other periods, with root P consistently increasing from upstream to the estuary mouth. Fine root turnover rates were lower post‐hurricane compared to pre‐hurricane across sites. Root decay rates declined post‐Irma at all sites, except at the midstream site. Our findings suggest that P‐rich sediments deposited by hurricanes can enhance belowground C allocation by increasing root biomass and nutrient uptake, while reducing root turnover to facilitate forest recovery. These responses underscore the strong phenotypic plasticity and resilience of mangrove roots in P‐limited carbonate settings, highlighting their critical role in C sequestration, resilience, and ecosystem stability as climate‐related disturbances and sea‐level rise intensify. 

Abstract Animal movement strategies, or suites of correlated traits reflecting how individuals respond to their environment, are often shaped by spatiotemporal heterogeneity and predictability in physicochemical conditions, resources or risk.While movement strategies have been well studied in terrestrial animals using high‐resolution satellite telemetry, our understanding of how seascape heterogeneity influences movement strategies in aquatic systems remains limited due to technological constraints.We used a non‐gridded passive acoustic telemetry array to identify and classify movement strategies of Common Snook (Centropomus undecimalis) and Atlantic Tarpon (Megalops atlanticus) within two estuarine systems in Everglades National Park, Florida. We then evaluated how seasonal heterogeneity and environmental predictability influenced movement strategy selection.Using a suite of movement metrics, we identified three statistically distinct movement strategies that varied in movement frequency, home range size and site fidelity. Fish in more homogeneous environments tended to adopt strategies involving frequent movements, larger home ranges and shorter stays in a given location. In contrast, increased seascape heterogeneity was associated with movement strategies characterized by less frequent movements, smaller home ranges and longer residence times. We also found species‐level differences in strategy use, with the predictability of dissolved oxygen, salinity and turbidity emerging as key environmental drivers of movement strategy selection.These results demonstrate that seascape heterogeneity and predictability strongly influence the emergence and selection of movement strategies in estuarine predators. Our findings provide a novel approach for identifying movement strategies in aquatic systems using passive acoustic telemetry and highlight the broader importance of seascape complexity in shaping animal behaviour and predicting responses to environmental change. 

Abstract Pulses of resource availability along environmental gradients can filter the local and regional distribution of macrophyte and microbial mat communities in wetlands. Wetlands that experience short hydroperiods (i.e., <6 months with standing water) may cause macrophyte and microbial mat competition for water. However, the stress gradient hypothesis predicts that abiotic stress should increase facilitative co‐regulation of producer dynamics. To determine if and how macrophyte and microbial mat biomass covary along a hydrologic gradient, we conducted two observational surveys and a biomass removal experiment in Everglades National Park, FL, USA. In the survey, macrophyte and microbial mat biomass were measured over a two‐year period across nine hydrologically regulated macrophyte community types to determine drivers of biomass and macrophyte–microbial mat interactions along a hydroperiod gradient (3–8 months) using a structural equation model. In the experiment, the effect of hydrology on the interaction between macrophytes and microbial mats was quantified by measuring the effect of bimonthly removal of macrophyte or microbial mat biomass on the biomass of both communities in plots in wetlands with contrasting hydroperiods (3–6 months). Hydrology and biological interactions influenced macrophyte and microbial mat biomass, with stronger interactions observed in the shortest hydroperiod transect sites dominated bySchoenus nigricansandCladium jamaicense. Along the hydrologic gradient, we found direct negative effects of macrophyte biomass on microbial biomass and vice versa, and a significant positive effect of microbial response to flooding duration on macrophyte biomass. Experimental macrophyte removal in shorter‐hydroperiod wetlands resulted in a significant increase in microbial biomass while microbial mat removal reduced biomass of the dominant macrophyteC. jamaicense. The facilitative effect of microbial mats on macrophyte biomass in shorter‐hydroperiod wetlands may be driven by mats prolonging soil moisture retention due to their desiccation‐resistant structure. Stress‐induced facilitation supported the stress gradient hypothesis across the short‐hydrologic gradient, while competitive interactions were also observed. As climate and human drivers continue altering hydrology in aquatic systems, the type and strength of community interactions will continue to shift and alter distributions across the landscape. 

Abstract Mangroves play a crucial role in mitigating hurricane impacts in coastal ecosystems, and their adaptive traits enable regeneration and forest recovery following these disturbances. Yet, how species‐specific regeneration varies across life stages and interacts with environmental conditions is poorly understood. We quantified regeneration rates of three dominant species of mangrove seedlings and saplings (Avicennia germinans,Laguncularia racemosa, andRhizophora mangle) recovering from a major hurricane. We selected forests with varying light availability and phosphorus (P) gradients in the Everglades (Florida, USA). From 2020 to 2022, we measured biannual stem elongation, height, and density of seedlings and saplings, and collected porewater variables (salinity, sulfide, and inorganic nutrients) and continuous light intensity to assess species‐specific drivers of regeneration. Species‐specific growth rates, total height, and density varied across sites, driven by differences in porewater P and light. Growth rates ofR. mangleseedlings and bothR. mangleandL. racemosasaplings were influenced by light, whileA. germinansgrowth rates were unaffected. OnlyR. mangleandL. racemosasaplings were influenced by porewater P, while growth of both seedlings and saplings was unaffected by porewater salinity and sulfide. Mangrove regeneration post‐disturbance is explained by spatial differences in subsidies and stressors and the composition of species and life stages, underscoring complex regeneration strategies in mixed‐species forests. 

Abstract Aim and QuestionsSea‐level rise has been responsible for extensive vegetation changes in coastal areas worldwide. The intent of our study was to analyze vegetation dynamics of a South Florida coastal watershed within an explicit spatiotemporal framework that might aid in projecting the landscape's future response to restoration efforts. We also asked whether recent transgression by mangroves and other halophytes has resulted in reduced plant diversity at local or subregional scales. LocationFlorida’'s Southeast Saline Everglades, USA. MethodsWe selected 26 locations, representing a transition zone between sawgrass marsh and mangrove swamp, that was last sampled floristically in 1995. Within this transition zone, leading‐ and trailing‐edge subzones were defined based on plant composition in 1995. Fifty‐two site × time combinations were classified and then ordinated to examine vegetation–environment relationships using 2016 environmental data. We calculated alpha‐diversity using Hill numbers or Shannon–Weiner index species equivalents and compared these across the two surveys. We used a multiplicative diversity partition to determine beta‐diversity from landscape‐scale (gamma) diversity in the entire dataset or in each subzone. ResultsMangrove and mangrove associates became more important in both subzones: through colonization and establishment in the leading edge, and through population growth combined with the decline of freshwater species in the trailing edge. Alpha‐diversity increased significantly in the leading edge and decreased nominally in the trailing edge, while beta‐diversity declined slightly in both subzones as well as across the study area. ConclusionsRecent halophyte encroachment in the Southeast Saline Everglades continues a trend evident for almost a century. While salinity is an important environmental driver, species’ responses suggest that restoration efforts based on supplementing freshwater delivery will not reverse a trend that depends on multiple interacting factors. Sea‐level‐rise‐driven taxonomic homogenization in coastal wetland communities develops slowly, lagging niche‐based changes in community structure and composition. 

Abstract Abundance-weighted averaging is a simple and common method for estimating taxon preferences (optima) for phosphorus (P) and other environmental drivers of freshwater-ecosystem health. These optima can then be used to develop transfer functions to infer current and/or past environmental conditions of aquatic ecosystems in water-quality assessments and/or paleolimnological studies. However, estimates of species’ environmental preferences are influenced by the sample distribution and length of environmental gradients, which can differ between datasets used to develop and apply a transfer function. Here, we introduce a subsampling method to ensure a uniform and comparable distribution of samples along a P gradient in two similar ecosystems: the Everglades Protection Areas (EPA) and Big Cypress National Preserve (BICY) in South Florida, USA. Diatom optima were estimated for both wetlands using weighted averaging of untransformed and log-transformed periphyton mat total phosphorus (mat TP) values from the original datasets. We compared these estimates to those derived from random subsets of the original datasets. These subsets, referred to as “SUD” datasets, were created to ensure a uniform distribution of mat TP values along the gradient (both untransformed and log-transformed). We found that diatom assemblages in BICY and EPA were similar, dominated by taxa indicating oligotrophic conditions, and strongly influenced by P gradients. However, the original BICY datasets contained more samples with elevated mat TP concentrations than the EPA datasets, introducing a mathematical bias and resulting in a higher abundance of taxa with high mat TP optima in BICY. The weighted averaged mat TP optima of BICY and EPA taxa were positively correlated across all four dataset types, with taxa optima of SUD datasets exhibiting higher correlations than in the original datasets. Equalizing the mat TP sample distribution in the two datasets confirmed consistent mat TP estimates for diatom taxa between the two wetland complexes and improved transfer-function performance. Our findings suggest that diatom environmental preferences may be more reliable across regional scales than previously suggested and support the application of models developed in one region to another nearby region if environmental gradient lengths are equalized and data distribution along gradients is uniform.