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Abstract A new TEC‐based ionospheric data assimilation system (TIDAS) over the continental US and adjacent area (20°–60°N, 60°–130°W, and 100–600 km) has been developed through assimilating heterogeneous ionospheric data, including dense ground‐based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Total Electron Content (TEC) from 2,000+ receivers, Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate radio occultation data, JASON satellite altimeter TEC, and Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar measurements. A hybrid Ensemble‐Variational scheme is utilized to reconstruct the regional 3‐D electron density distribution: a more realistic and location‐dependent background error covariance matrix is calculated from an ensemble of corrected NeQuick outputs, and a three‐dimensional variational (3DVAR) method is adopted for measurement updates to obtain an optimal state estimation. The spatial‐temporal resolution of the reanalyzed 3‐D electron density product is as high as 1° × 1° in latitude and longitude, 20 km in altitude, and 5 min in universal time, which is sufficient to reproduce ionospheric fine structure and storm‐time disturbances. The accuracy and reliability of data assimilation results are validated using ionosonde and other measurements. TIDAS reanalyzed electron density is able to successfully reconstruct the 3‐D morphology and dynamic evolution of the storm‐enhanced density (SED) plume observed during the St. Patrick's day geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2013 with high fidelity. Using TIDAS, we found that the 3‐D SED plume manifests as a ridge‐like high‐density channel that predominantly occurred between 300 and 500 km during 19:00–21:00 UT for this event, with the F2 region peak height being raised by 40–60 km and peak density enhancement of 30%–50%. 

The increasing number of anthropogenic space objects (ASOs) in low Earth orbit (LEO) poses a threat to the safety and sustainability of the space environment. Multiple companies are planning to launch large constellations of hundreds to thousands of satellites in the near future, increasing the probability of collisions and debris generation. This paper analyzes the long-term evolution of the LEO ASO population with the goal of estimating LEO orbital capacity. This is carried out by introducing a new probabilistic source–sink model. The developed source–sink model is a multishell multispecies model, which includes different object species, such as active and derelict satellites, and debris. Furthermore, debris are divided into the following two subgroups: trackable and nontrackable debris, the last ones representing a significant hazard for active satellites. In addition, the proposed model accounts for collision events and atmospheric drag effects, which include the influence of solar activity. Indeed, the Jacchia–Bowman 2008 thermospheric density model is exploited. The results prove that considering untracked debris within the model produces more collisions, and therefore a smaller population of active satellites affecting the safety of LEO and its orbital capacity.