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  1. null (Ed.)
    From early in the COVID-19 pandemic, economists have stressed the importance of individuals endogenously changing their behavior to reduce their risk of infection. This paper quantifies time variation in the endogenous behavioral response of economic activity to the prevalence of the virus using an estimated behavioral SIR model with time-varying parameters. We find significant variation in both the relationship between economic activity and viral prevalence and the relationship between transmissibility and economic activity. This variation reflects adaptation to the pandemic and has implications both for specification of behavioral SIR models and for the next stage of the pandemic. 
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  2. Eberly, Jan ; Romer, David (Ed.)
    In the spring of 2020, the initial surge of COVID-19 infections and deaths was flattened using a combination of economic shutdowns and noneconomic non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The possibility of a second wave of infections and deaths raises the question of what interventions can be used to significantly reduce deaths while supporting, not preventing, economic recovery. We use a five-age epidemiological model combined with sixty-six-sector economic accounting to examine policies to avert and to respond to a second wave. We find that a second round of economic shutdowns alone are neither sufficient nor necessary to avert or quell a second wave. In contrast, noneconomic NPIs, such as wearing masks and personal distancing, increasing testing and quarantine, reintroducing restrictions on social and recreational gatherings, and enhancing protections for the elderly together can mitigate a second wave while leaving room for an economic recovery. 
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