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Abstract With the increased deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV), the cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV market is expected to grow substantially. CdTe PV production is crucial for the clean energy transition but problematic because of the material availability challenges. CdTe PV relies on tellurium, a scarce metal mainly produced as a byproduct of copper. Several studies investigated the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV. However, previous models are static and do not reflect the interconnection between tellurium supply, demand, and price. Despite the efforts, previous studies have inconsistent results and do not provide a clear understanding on the availability of tellurium for CdTe PV applications. This study uses system dynamics modeling to assess tellurium availability between 2023 and 2050. The model considers different scenarios for CdTe PV demand growth and PV material intensity reduction. The model also considers tellurium supply variables such as Te‐rich ores, tellurium yield from anode slimes, and growth in copper mining. The historical data (2000–2020) analysis shows a negative correlation between the tellurium price and the annual tellurium surplus. All the considered demand scenarios exhibit a tellurium supply gap where annual material production falls below demand. Tellurium availability and price could delay the growth of CdTe PV production, and maintaining the current CdTe PV market share of ~4% will be challenging. The low‐demand scenario, which is based on a constant CdTe PV market share, results in a supply gap starting in 2029 and a supply gap peak of 508 metric tons in 2036. Our work shows that having more manufacturing capacity is insufficient if tellurium is unavailable. More importantly, this work shows that fast growth in CdTe PV production can diminish the advantages of dematerialization. The estimated cumulative CdTe PV production by 2050 ranges between 929 and 2250 GWp. The findings also suggest that recycling retired solar panels can contribute to 17% of the total tellurium demand and 34% of the CdTe PV tellurium demand. Sensitivity analysis shows that expanding existing Te‐rich ores does not alleviate tellurium scarcity. Alternatively, improving tellurium yield from copper electrorefining is a more efficient mitigation approach. The system dynamic approach outlined in this study provides a better perspective on the status of various critical metal supply chains, ultimately leading to sustainable materials management and increasing CdTe production. 

The state of California is the foremost leader in solar photovoltaics (PV) installations in the United States. With 1,390,240 installations and 24.76% of the state's energy coming from solar, the demand for PV modules is steadily increasing. Most PV modules have an expected lifetime of 25-30 years. However, due to repowering or early module failure, module lifetime can often be shorter than anticipated. Current studies calculate the environmental impact of PV systems based on ideal installation conditions and a full 25-year module lifetime. This study considers the impact on the life cycle of PV systems from early PV module retirement and actual system installation in California. Using the life cycle cumulative energy demand, electricity data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and greenhouse gases, carbon payback time (CPBT) was evaluated. Data from various PV module rooftop residential installations in 2019 were collected from the California NEM database. Information on the system design (tilt, azimuth, module model) and module specification sheets were used to calculate the cumulative electricity generated in kilowatt-hours (kWh) over the system' lifetime. The calculated average CPBT was 2.8 years, shorter than most of the system lifetimes, and the mean number of zero carbon years experienced by earlier retired systems was about 5 years. Although the rapid movement towards solar energy is promising and essential as reliance on greener energy increases, attention must be paid to the diverse lifespans of PV modules, system design, and performance to substantiate or reject the assumption that PV always have a positive impact on the environment.