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Abstract Drylands are unique among terrestrial ecosystems in that they have a significant proportion of primary production facilitated by non‐vascular plants such as colonial cyanobacteria, moss, and lichens, i.e., biocrusts, which occur on and in the surface soil. Biocrusts inhabit all continents, including Antarctica, an increasingly dynamic continent on the precipice of change. Here, we describe in‐situ field surveying and sampling, remote sensing, and modeling approaches to assess the habitat suitability of biocrusts in the Lake Fryxell basin of Taylor Valley, Antarctica, which is the main site of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long‐Term Ecological Research Program. Soils suitable for the development of biocrusts are typically wetter, less alkaline, and less saline compared to unvegetated soils. Using random forest models, we show that gravimetric water content, electrical conductivity, and snow frequency are the top predictors of biocrust presence and biomass. Areas most suitable for the growth of dense biocrusts are soils associated with seasonal snow patches. Using geospatial data to extrapolate our habitat suitability model to the whole basin predicts that biocrusts are present in 2.7 × 10⁵m²and contain 11–72 Mg of aboveground carbon, based on the 90% probability of occurrence. Our study illustrates the synergistic effect of combining field and remote sensing data for understanding the distribution and biomass of biocrusts, a foundational community in the carbon balance of this region. Extreme weather events and changing climate conditions in this region, especially those influencing snow accumulation and persistence, could have significant effects on the future distribution and abundance of biocrusts and therefore soil organic carbon storage in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. 

In situ observed data are commonly used as species occurrence response variables in species distribution models. However, the use of remotely observed data from high‐resolution multispectral remote‐sensing images as a source of presence/absence data for species distribution models remains under‐developed. Here, we describe an ensemble species distribution model of black microbial mats "Nostoc" using presence/absence points derived from the unmixing of 4‐m resolution WorldView‐2 and WorldView‐3 images in the Lake Fryxell basin region of Taylor Valley, Antarctica. Environmental and topographical characteristics such as soil moisture, snow, elevation, slope, and aspect were used as predictor variables in our models. We demonstrate that we can build and run ensemble species distribution models using both dependent and independent variables derived from remote‐sensing data to generate spatially explicit habitat suitability maps. Snow and soil moisture were found to be the most important variables accounting for about 80% of the variation in the distribution of black mats throughout the Fryxell basin. This study highlights the potential contribution of high‐resolution remote‐sensing to species distribution modeling and informs new studies incorporating remotely derived species occurrences in species distribution models, especially in remote areas where access to in situ data is often limited. 

Available soil moisture is thought to be the limiting factor for most ecosystem processes in the cold polar desert of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica. Previous studies have shown that microfauna throughout the MDVs are capable of biological activity when sufficient soil moisture is available (~2–10% gravimetric water content), but few studies have attempted to quantify the distribution, abundance, and frequency of soil moisture on scales beyond that of traditional field work or local field investigations. In this study, we present our work to quantify the soil moisture content of soils throughout the Fryxell basin using multispectral satellite remote sensing techniques. Our efforts demonstrate that ecologically relevant abundances of liquid water are common across the landscape throughout the austral summer. On average, the Fryxell basin of Taylor Valley is modeled as containing 1.5 ± 0.5% gravimetric water content (GWC) across its non-fluvial landscape with ~23% of the landscape experiencing an average GWC > 2% throughout the study period, which is the observed limit of soil nematode activity. These results indicate that liquid water in the soils of the MDVs may be more abundant than previously thought, and that the distribution and availability of liquid water is dependent on both soil properties and the distribution of water sources. These results can also help to identify ecological hotspots in the harsh polar Antarctic environment and serve as a baseline for detecting future changes in the soil hydrological regime.