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The arrival of digital commerce has lead to an increasing use of personalization and differentiation strategies. With differentiated products along the quality dimension and/or the quantity dimension comes the need for nonlinear pricing policies or second degree price discrimination. The optimal pricing strategies for quality and quantity differentiated products were first investigated by Mussa and Rosen (1978) and Maskin and Riley (1984), respectively. The optimal pricing strategies were shown to depend heavily on the prior distribution of the private information regarding the types, and ultimately the willingness-to-pay of the buyers. Yet, frequently the sellers possess only weak and incomplete information about the distribution of demand. This paper aims to develop robust pricing policies that are independent of specific demand distributions and provide revenue guarantees across all possible distributions. 

We analyze the optimal information design in a click-through auction with stochastic click-through rates and known valuations per click. The auctioneer takes as given the auction rule of the clickthrough auction, namely the generalized second-price auction. Yet, the auctioneer can design the information flow regarding the clickthrough rates among the bidders. We require that the information structure to be calibrated in the learning sense. With this constraint, the auction needs to rank the ads by a product of the value and a calibrated prediction of the click-through rates. The task of designing an optimal information structure is thus reduced to the task of designing an optimal calibrated prediction. We show that in a symmetric setting with uncertainty about the click-through rates, the optimal information structure attains both social efficiency and surplus extraction. The optimal information structure requires private (rather than public) signals to the bidders. It also requires correlated (rather than independent) signals, even when the underlying uncertainty regarding the click-through rates is independent. Beyond symmetric settings, we show that the optimal information structure requires partial information disclosure, and achieves only partial surplus extraction. 

We describe a methodology for making counterfactual predictions in settings where the information held by strategic agents and the distribution of payoff-relevant states of the world are unknown. The analyst observes behavior assumed to be rationalized by a Bayesian model, in which agents maximize expected utility, given partial and differential information about the state. A counterfactual prediction is desired about behavior in another strategic setting, under the hypothesis that the distribution of the state and agents’ information about the state are held fixed. When the data and the desired counterfactual prediction pertain to environments with finitely many states, players, and actions, the counterfactual prediction is described by finitely many linear inequalities, even though the latent parameter, the information structure, is infinite dimensional. (JEL D44, D82, D83)