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AbstractOne‐dimensional (1D) cardiovascular models offer a non‐invasive method to answer medical questions, including predictions of wave‐reflection, shear stress, functional flow reserve, vascular resistance and compliance. This model type can predict patient‐specific outcomes by solving 1D fluid dynamics equations in geometric networks extracted from medical images. However, the inherent uncertainty inin vivoimaging introduces variability in network size and vessel dimensions, affecting haemodynamic predictions. Understanding the influence of variation in image‐derived properties is essential to assess the fidelity of model predictions. Numerous programs exist to render three‐dimensional surfaces and construct vessel centrelines. Still, there is no exact way to generate vascular trees from the centrelines while accounting for uncertainty in data. This study introduces an innovative framework employing statistical change point analysis to generate labelled trees that encode vessel dimensions and their associated uncertainty from medical images. To test this framework, we explore the impact of uncertainty in 1D haemodynamic predictions in a systemic and pulmonary arterial network. Simulations explore haemodynamic variations resulting from changes in vessel dimensions and segmentation; the latter is achieved by analysing multiple segmentations of the same images. Results demonstrate the importance of accurately defining vessel radii and lengths when generating high‐fidelity patient‐specific haemodynamics models.image Key pointsThis study introduces novel algorithms for generating labelled directed trees from medical images, focusing on accurate junction node placement and radius extraction using change points to provide haemodynamic predictions with uncertainty within expected measurement error.Geometric features, such as vessel dimension (length and radius) and network size, significantly impact pressure and flow predictions in both pulmonary and aortic arterial networks.Standardizing networks to a consistent number of vessels is crucial for meaningful comparisons and decreases haemodynamic uncertainty.Change points are valuable to understanding structural transitions in vascular data, providing an automated and efficient way to detect shifts in vessel characteristics and ensure reliable extraction of representative vessel radii. 

Given the increasing prevalence of wildland fires in the Western US, there is a crit- ical need to develop tools to understand and accurately predict burn severity. We develop a novel machine learning model to predict post-fire burn severity using pre- fire remotely sensed data. Hydrological, ecological, and topographical variables col- lected from four regions of California — the site of the Kincade fire (2019), the CZU Lightning Complex fire (2020), the Windy fire (2021), and the KNP Fire (2021) — are used as predictors of the differenced normalized burn ratio. We hypothesize that a Super Learner (SL) algorithm that accounts for spatial autocorrelation using Vec- chia’s Gaussian approximation will accurately model burn severity. We use a cross- validation study to show that the spatial SL model can predict burn severity with reasonable classification accuracy, including high burn severity events. After fitting and verifying the performance of the SL model, we use interpretable machine learn- ing tools to determine the main drivers of severe burn damage, including greenness, elevation, and fire weather variables. These findings provide actionable insights that enable communities to strategize interventions, such as early fire detection systems, pre-fire season vegetation clearing activities, and resource allocation during emer- gency responses. When implemented, this model has the potential to minimize the loss of human life, property, resources, and ecosystems in California. 

Pulmonary hypertension (PH), defined by a mean pulmonary arterial blood pressure above 20 mmHg in the main pulmonary artery, is a cardiovascular disease impacting the pulmonary vasculature. PH is accompanied by chronic vascular remodeling, wherein vessels become stiffer, large vessels dilate, and smaller vessels constrict. Some types of PH, including hypoxia-induced PH (HPH), also lead to microvascular rarefaction. This study analyzes the change in pulmonary arterial morphometry in the presence of HPH using novel methods from topological data analysis (TDA). We employ persistent homology to quantify arterial morphometry for control and HPH mice characterizing normalized arterial trees extracted from micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) images. We normalize generated trees using three pruning algorithms before comparing the topology of control and HPH trees. This proof-of-concept study shows that the pruning method affects the spatial tree statistics and complexity. We find that HPH trees are stiffer than control trees but have more branches and a higher depth. Relative directional complexities are lower in HPH animals in the right, ventral, and posterior directions. For the radius pruned trees, this difference is more significant at lower perfusion pressures enabling analysis of remodeling of larger vessels. At higher pressures, the arterial networks include more distal vessels. Results show that the right, ventral, and posterior relative directional complexities increase in HPH trees, indicating the remodeling of distal vessels in these directions. Strahler order pruning enables us to generate trees of comparable size, and results, at all pressure, show that HPH trees have lower complexity than the control trees. Our analysis is based on data from 6 animals (3 control and 3 HPH mice), and even though our analysis is performed in a small dataset, this study provides a framework and proof-of-concept for analyzing properties of biological trees using tools from Topological Data Analysis (TDA). Findings derived from this study bring us a step closer to extracting relevant information for quantifying remodeling in HPH. 

Modern machine learning algorithms are capable of providing remarkably accurate point-predictions; however, questions remain about their statistical reliability. Unlike conventional machine learning methods, conformal prediction algorithms return confidence sets (i.e., set-valued predictions) that correspond to a given significance level. Moreover, these confidence sets are valid in the sense that they guarantee finite sample control over type 1 error probabilities, allowing the practitioner to choose an acceptable error rate. In our paper, we propose inductive conformal prediction (ICP) algorithms for the tasks of text infilling and part-of-speech (POS) prediction for natural language data. We construct new ICP-enhanced algorithms for POS tagging based on BERT (bidirectional encoder representations from transformers) and BiLSTM (bidirectional long short-term memory) models. For text infilling, we design a new ICP-enhanced BERT algorithm. We analyze the performance of the algorithms in simulations using the Brown Corpus, which contains over 57,000 sentences. Our results demonstrate that the ICP algorithms are able to produce valid set-valued predictions that are small enough to be applicable in real-world applications. We also provide a real data example for how our proposed set-valued predictions can improve machine generated audio transcriptions. 

To predict rare extreme events using deep neural networks, one encounters the so-called small data problem because even long-term observations often contain few extreme events. Here, we investigate a model-assisted framework where the training data are obtained from numerical simulations, as opposed to observations, with adequate samples from extreme events. However, to ensure the trained networks are applicable in practice, the training is not performed on the full simulation data; instead, we only use a small subset of observable quantities, which can be measured in practice. We investigate the feasibility of this model-assisted framework on three different dynamical systems (Rössler attractor, FitzHugh–Nagumo model, and a turbulent fluid flow) and three different deep neural network architectures (feedforward, long short-term memory, and reservoir computing). In each case, we study the prediction accuracy, robustness to noise, reproducibility under repeated training, and sensitivity to the type of input data. In particular, we find long short-term memory networks to be most robust to noise and to yield relatively accurate predictions, while requiring minimal fine-tuning of the hyperparameters.