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This paper introduces an extensible framework to predict small-business closures to inform urban planners, lenders, and business owners as to factors to improve business resilience. This paper couples machine learning with two point of interest (POI) datasets and infrastructure data and uses New York State’s COVID-19 PAUSE as a stressor for investigating small-business resiliency. The study included 2537 food-related, non-chain, retail businesses across select New York City zip codes, of which 17.7% closed permanently. Macro-, meso-, and micro-levels of features included the neighborhood profile, street dynamics, and venue-specific, location-related characteristics. A Gaussian Mixture Neural Network model achieved 74.1% precision, 92.5% recall, and an 82.3% F1-score without use of financial data. High-end restaurants located further than average from public transit were most at risk for closure, while non-restaurant, food businesses in commercially diverse areas having higher-than-average social media ratings were least at risk. This paper introduces a model for timely prediction of pandemic-induced, food-related, small-business closures without reliance on private or protected financial data, and provides insights into urban design to promote small, food business survivability. 

Abstract. While data on human behavior in COVID-19 rich environments have been captured and publicly released, spatial components of such data are recorded in two-dimensions. Thus, the complete roles of the built and natural environment cannot be readily ascertained. This paper introduces a mechanism for the three-dimensional (3D) visualization of egress behaviors of individuals leaving a COVID-19 exposed healthcare facility in Spring 2020 in New York City. Behavioral data were extracted and projected onto a 3D aerial laser scanning point cloud of the surrounding area rendered with Potree, a readily available open-source Web Graphics Library (WebGL) point cloud viewer. The outcomes were 3D heatmap visualizations of the built environment that indicated the event locations of individuals exhibiting specific characteristics (e.g., men vs. women; public transit users vs. private vehicle users). These visualizations enabled interactive navigation through the space accessible through any modern web browser supporting WebGL. Visualizing egress behavior in this manner may highlight patterns indicative of correlations between the environment, human behavior, and transmissible diseases. Findings using such tools have the potential to identify high-exposure areas and surfaces such as doors, railings, and other physical features. Providing flexible visualization capabilities with 3D spatial context can enable analysts to quickly advise and communicate vital information across a broad range of use cases. This paper presents such an application to extract the public health information necessary to form localized responses to reduce COVID-19 infection and transmission rates in urban areas.