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Abstract Human‐caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp‐grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency. 

Understanding and monitoring nearshore environments is essential, given that these fine-scaled ecosystems are integral to human well-being. While satellites offer an opportunity to gain synchronous and spatially extensive data of coastal areas, off-the-shelf calibrated satellite sea surface temperature (SST) measurements have only been available at coarse resolutions of 1 km or larger. In this study, we develop a novel methodology to create a simple linear equation to calibrate fine-scale Landsat thermal infrared radiation brightness temperatures (calibrated for land sensing) to derive SST at a resolution of 100 m. The constants of this equation are derived from correlations of coincident MODIS SST and Landsat data, which we filter to find optimal pairs. Validation against in situ sensor data at varying distances from the shore in Northern California shows that our SST estimates are more accurate than prior off-the-shelf Landsat data calibrated for land surfaces. These fine-scale SST estimates also demonstrate superior accuracy compared with coincident MODIS SST estimates. The root mean square error for our minimally filtered dataset (n = 557 images) ranges from 0.76 to 1.20 °C with correlation coefficients from r = 0.73 to 0.92, and for our optimal dataset (n = 229 images), the error is from 0.62 to 0.98 °C with correlations from r = 0.83 to 0.92. Potential error sources related to stratification and seasonality are examined and we conclude that Landsat data represent skin temperatures with an error between 0.62 and 0.73 °C. We discuss the utility of our methodology for enhancing coastal monitoring efforts and capturing previously unseen spatial complexity. Testing the calibration methodology on Landsat images before and after the temporal bounds of accurate MODIS SST measurements shows successful calibration with lower errors than the off-the-shelf, land-calibrated Landsat product, extending the applicability of our approach. This new approach for obtaining high-resolution SST data in nearshore waters may be applied to other upwelling regions globally, contributing to improved coastal monitoring, management, and research.