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Habitat loss poses a major threat to global biodiversity. Many studies have explored the potential damages of deforestation to animal populations but few have considered trees as thermoregulatory microhabitats or addressed how tree loss might impact the fate of species under climate change. Using a biophysical approach, we explore how tree loss might affect semi-arboreal diurnal ectotherms (lizards) under current and projected climates. We find that tree loss can reduce lizard population growth by curtailing activity time and length of the activity season. Although climate change can generally promote population growth for lizards, deforestation can reverse these positive effects for 66% of simulated populations and further accelerate population declines for another 18%. Our research underscores the mechanistic link between tree availability and population survival and growth, thus advocating for forest conservation and the integration of biophysical modelling and microhabitat diversity into conservation strategies, particularly in the face of climate change. 

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.