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Abstract Mechanistic understanding of organic reactions can facilitate reaction development, impurity prediction, and in principle, reaction discovery. While several machine learning models have sought to address the task of predicting reaction products, their extension to predicting reaction mechanisms has been impeded by the lack of a corresponding mechanistic dataset. In this study, we construct such a dataset by imputing intermediates between experimentally reported reactants and products using expert reaction templates and train several machine learning models on the resulting dataset of 5,184,184 elementary steps. We explore the performance and capabilities of these models, focusing on their ability to predict reaction pathways and recapitulate the roles of catalysts and reagents. Additionally, we demonstrate the potential of mechanistic models in predicting impurities, often overlooked by conventional models. We conclude by evaluating the generalizability of mechanistic models to new reaction types, revealing challenges related to dataset diversity, consecutive predictions, and violations of atom conservation. 

The field of predictive chemistry relates to the development of models able to describe how molecules interact and react. It encompasses the long-standing task of computer-aided retrosynthesis, but is far more reaching and ambitious in its goals. In this review, we summarize several areas where predictive chemistry models hold the potential to accelerate the deployment, development, and discovery of organic reactions and advance synthetic chemistry.