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ABSTRACT As the catalogue of gravitational-wave transients grows, several entries appear ‘exceptional’ within the population. Tipping the scales with a total mass of $$\sim 150 \,{\rm M}_\odot$$, GW190521 likely contained black holes in the pair-instability mass gap. The event GW190814, meanwhile, is unusual for its extreme mass ratio and the mass of its secondary component. A growing model-building industry has emerged to provide explanations for such exceptional events, and Bayesian model selection is frequently used to determine the most informative model. However, Bayesian methods can only take us so far. They provide no answer to the question: does our model provide an adequate explanation for exceptional events in the data? If none of the models we are testing provide an adequate explanation, then it is not enough to simply rank our existing models – we need new ones. In this paper, we introduce a method to answer this question with a frequentist p-value. We apply the method to different models that have been suggested to explain the unusually massive event GW190521: hierarchical mergers in active galactic nuclei and globular clusters. We show that some (but not all) of these models provide adequate explanations for exceptionally massive events like GW190521. 

Abstract Several features in the mass spectrum of merging binary black holes (BBHs) have been identified using data from the Third Gravitational Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC-3). These features are of particular interest as they may encode the uncertain mechanism of BBH formation. We assess if the features are statistically significant or the result of Poisson noise due to the finite number of observed events. We simulate catalogs of BBHs whose underlying distribution does not have the features of interest, apply the analysis previously performed on GWTC-3, and determine how often such features are spuriously found. We find that one of the features found in GWTC-3, the peak at ∼35M_☉, cannot be explained by Poisson noise alone: peaks as significant occur in 1.7% of catalogs generated from a featureless population. This peak is therefore likely to be of astrophysical origin. The data is suggestive of an additional significant peak at ∼10M_☉, though the exact location of this feature is not resolvable with current observations. Additional structure beyond a power law, such as the purported dip at ∼14M_☉, can be explained by Poisson noise. We also provide a publicly available package,GWMockCat, that creates simulated catalogs of BBH events with correlated measurement uncertainty and selection effects according to user-specified underlying distributions and detector sensitivities. 

Abstract We introduce the first complete nonparametric model for the astrophysical distribution of the binary black hole (BBH) population. Constructed from basis splines, we use these models to conduct the most comprehensive data-driven investigation of the BBH population to date, simultaneously fitting nonparametric models for the BBH mass ratio, spin magnitude and misalignment, and redshift distributions. With GWTC-3, we report the same features previously recovered with similarly flexible models of the mass distribution, most notably the peaks in merger rates at primary masses of ∼10M_⊙and ∼35M_⊙. Our model reports a suppressed merger rate at low primary masses and a mass-ratio distribution consistent with a power law. We infer a distribution for primary spin misalignments that peaks away from alignment, supporting conclusions of recent work. We find broad agreement with the previous inferences of the spin magnitude distribution: the majority of BBH spins are small (a< 0.5), the distribution peaks ata∼ 0.2, and there is mild support for a nonspinning subpopulation, which may be resolved with larger catalogs. With a modulated power law describing the BBH merger rate’s evolution in redshift, we see hints of the rate evolution either flattening or decreasing atz∼ 0.2–0.5, but the full distribution remains entirely consistent with a monotonically increasing power law. We conclude with a discussion of the astrophysical context of our new findings and how nonparametric methods in gravitational-wave population inference are uniquely poised to complement to the parametric approach as we enter the data-rich era of gravitational-wave astronomy. 

Abstract The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog (GWTC) is a collection of short-duration (transient) gravitational-wave signals identified by the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA Collaboration in gravitational-wave data produced by the eponymous detectors. The catalog provides information about the identified candidates, such as the arrival time and amplitude of the signal and properties of the signal’s source as inferred from the observational data. GWTC is the data release of this dataset, and version 4.0 extends the catalog to include observations made during the first part of the fourth LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA observing run up until 2024 January 31. This Letter marks an introduction to a collection of articles related to this version of the catalog, GWTC-4.0. The collection of articles accompanying the catalog provides documentation of the methods used to analyze the data, summaries of the catalog of events, observational measurements drawn from the population, and detailed discussions of selected candidates. 

Abstract We introduce a semiparametric model for the primary mass distribution of binary black holes (BBHs) observed with gravitational waves (GWs) that applies a cubic-spline perturbation to a power law. We apply this model to the 46 BBHs included in the second gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-2). The spline perturbation model recovers a consistent primary mass distribution with previous results, corroborating the existence of a peak at 35M_⊙(>97% credibility) found with the Powerlaw+Peakmodel. The peak could be the result of pulsational pair-instability supernovae. The spline perturbation model finds potential signs of additional features in the primary mass distribution at lower masses similar to those previously reported by Tiwari and Fairhurst. However, with fluctuations due to small-number statistics, the simpler Powerlaw+Peakand BrokenPowerlawmodels are both still perfectly consistent with observations. Our semiparametric approach serves as a way to bridge the gap between parametric and nonparametric models to more accurately measure the BBH mass distribution. With larger catalogs we will be able to use this model to resolve possible additional features that could be used to perform cosmological measurements and will build on our understanding of BBH formation, stellar evolution, and nuclear astrophysics. 

Abstract We report the observation of gravitational waves from two binary black hole coalescences during the fourth observing run of the LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA detector network, GW241011 and GW241110. The sources of these two signals are characterized by rapid and precisely measured primary spins, nonnegligible spin–orbit misalignment, and unequal mass ratios between their constituent black holes. These properties are characteristic of binaries in which the more massive object was itself formed from a previous binary black hole merger and suggest that the sources of GW241011 and GW241110 may have formed in dense stellar environments in which repeated mergers can take place. As the third-loudest gravitational-wave event published to date, with a median network signal-to-noise ratio of 36.0, GW241011 furthermore yields stringent constraints on the Kerr nature of black holes, the multipolar structure of gravitational-wave generation, and the existence of ultralight bosons within the mass range 10⁻¹³–10⁻¹²eV. 

Abstract On 2023 November 23, the two LIGO observatories both detected GW231123, a gravitational-wave signal consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses $137_{-18}^{+23}{M}_{\odot }$and $101_{-50}^{+22}{M}_{\odot }$(90% credible intervals), at a luminosity distance of 0.7–4.1 Gpc, a redshift of $0.40_{-0.25}^{+0.27}$, and with a network signal-to-noise ratio of ∼20.7. Both black holes exhibit high spins— $0.90_{-0.19}^{+0.10}$and $0.80_{-0.52}^{+0.20}$, respectively. A massive black hole remnant is supported by an independent ringdown analysis. Some properties of GW231123 are subject to large systematic uncertainties, as indicated by differences in the inferred parameters between signal models. The primary black hole lies within or above the theorized mass gap where black holes between 60–130M_⊙should be rare, due to pair-instability mechanisms, while the secondary spans the gap. The observation of GW231123 therefore suggests the formation of black holes from channels beyond standard stellar collapse and that intermediate-mass black holes of mass ∼200M_⊙form through gravitational-wave-driven mergers. 

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems.