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Award ID contains: 2149193

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  1. ; ; (, The Quarterly Journal of Economics)
    Abstract We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time, in particular over the monetary policy cycle. Forecasters update their perceptions about the Fed’s policy rule in response to monetary policy actions, measured by high-frequency interest rate surprises, suggesting that they have imperfect information about the rule. Monetary policy perceptions matter for monetary transmission, as they affect the sensitivity of interest rates to macroeconomic news, term premia in long-term bonds, and the response of the stock market to monetary policy surprises. A simple learning model with forecaster heterogeneity and incomplete information about the policy rule motivates and explains our empirical findings. 
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  2. (, Journal of Financial Economics)
    Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2026
  3. ; (, Annual Review of Financial Economics)
    The past half-century has seen major shifts in inflation expectations, how inflation comoves with the business cycle, and how stocks comove with Treasury bonds. Against this backdrop, we review the economic channels and empirical evidence on how inflation is priced in financial markets. Not all inflation episodes are created equal. Using a New Keynesian model, we show how “good” inflation can be linked to demand shocks and “bad” inflation to cost-push shocks driving the economy. We then discuss asset pricing implications of “good” and “bad” inflation. We conclude by providing an outlook for inflation risk premia in the world of newly rising inflation. 
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  4. ; (, Journal of Financial Economics)
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