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Abstract We use the TIEGCM‐NG nudged by MAGIC gravity waves to study the impacts of a severe thunderstorm system, with a hundred tornado touchdowns, on the ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. The generated waves induce a distinct concentric ring pattern on GNSS TIDs with horizontal scales of 150–400 km and phase speeds of 150–300 m/s, which is well simulated by the model. The waves show substantial vertical evolution in period, initially dominated by 0.5 hr at 200 km, shifting to 0.25 hr and with more higher‐frequency waves appearing at higher altitudes (∼400 km). The TADs reach amplitudes of 100 m/s, 60 m/s, 80 K, and 10% in horizontal winds, vertical wind, temperature, and relative neutral density, respectively. Significantly perturbations in electron density cause dramatic changes in its nighttime structure around 200 km and near the EIA crest. The concentric TIDs are also simulated in ion drifts and mapped from the Tornado region to the conjugate hemisphere likely due to neutral wind‐induced electric field perturbations. The waves manage to impact the ionosphere at altitudes of ICON and COSMIC‐2, which pass through the region of interest on a total of 8 separate orbits. In situ ion density observations from these spacecrafts reveal periodic fluctuations that frequently show good agreement with the TIEGCM‐NG simulation. The O⁺fraction observations from ICON indicate that the density fluctuations are the result of vertical transport of the ions in this region, which could result from either direct forcing by neutral winds or electrodynamic coupling. 

Abstract The statistics of day‐to‐day tidal variability within 35‐day running mean windows is obtained from Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐Resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI)/Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) observations in the 90–107 km height region for the year 2020. Temperature standard deviations for 18 diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components, and for four quasi‐stationary planetary waves are presented, as function of latitude, altitude, and day‐of‐year. Our results show that the day‐to‐day variability (DTDV) can be as large as 70% of the monthly mean amplitudes, thus providing a significant source of variability for the ionospheric E‐region dynamo and hence for the F‐region plasma. We further validate our results with COSMIC‐2 ionospheric observations and present an approach to extend the MIGHTI/ICON results to all latitudes using Hough Mode Extension fitting, to produce global tidal fields and their statistical DTDV that are suitable as lower boundary conditions for nudging and ensemble modeling of TIE‐GCM. In the future, this will likely help to establish a data‐driven perspective of space weather variability caused by the tidal weather of the lower atmosphere. 

Abstract The plasma and neutral density variations, interactions and coupling processes within ±30° latitudes are examined concurrently by the DMSP‐F18 and Swarm‐C satellite during geomagnetically quiet years in 2020–2021. The wavenumber (WN) patterns are computed in the form of neutral and electron density for two altitudes and their latitudinal profiles are analyzed. We observe that the WN1 structure of the electron density has a significant seasonal dependence in the topside ionosphere and dominates all other structures but WN2 neutral density amplitude dominates all other structures in the middle thermosphere (∼440 km). Additionally, we analyze vertical‐temporal‐latitudinal tidal structures from the Climatological Tidal Model of the Thermosphere (CTMT) to find evidence for the modulation of the large‐scale waves (LSWs) neutral density structures. Through the examination of the in situ observational and modeling approaches, we show that the tidal contributors of WN structures obtained from CTMT can capture the influence of terrestrial sources on the WN structures of plasma‐neutral density and imprint the corresponding vertical coupling in the IT system. Correlation analysis reveals that the amplitudes of the WN1 and WN3 structures of electron density in topside ionosphere and those of neutral density in the middle thermosphere show intermittent but significant correlations with each other, unlike the WN2 and WN4 structures. This study provides new insights into the topside ionospheric response to wave driving in the lower atmosphere, which ultimately improves our capability to understand the interaction and vertical coupling of large‐scale structures, thereby advancing our predictive capabilities of space weather critical for satellite operations. 

Abstract We provide observational evidence that the stability of the stratospheric Polar vortex (PV) is a significant driver of sub‐seasonal variability in the thermosphere during geomagnetically quiet times when the PV is anomalously strong or weak. We find strong positive correlations between the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index and subseasonal (10–90 days) Global Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) O/N₂perturbations at low to mid‐northern latitudes, with a largest value of +0.55 at ∼30.0°N when anomalously strong or weak (NAM >2.5 or < −2.1) vortex times are considered. Strong agreement for O/N₂variability and O/N₂‐NAM correlations is found between GOLD observations and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere‐ionosphere eXtension (WACCM‐X) simulations, which is then used to delineate the global distribution of O/N₂‐NAM correlations. We find negative correlations between subseasonal variability in WACCM‐X O/N₂and NAM at high northern and southern latitudes (as large as −0.54 at ∼60.0°S during anomalous vortex times). These correlations suggest that PV driven upwelling at low latitudes is accompanied by corresponding downwelling at high latitudes in the lower thermosphere (∼80–120 km), which is confirmed using calculations of residual mean meridional circulation from WACCM‐X. 

Abstract The semidiurnal tidal spectrum in the F‐region ionosphere obtained from hourly COSMIC‐2 Global Ionospheric Specification (GIS) data assimilation is greatly (>50%) enhanced during the January 2021 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Moreover, the semidiurnal migrating tidal response in topside electron densities closely follows the day‐to‐day changes of the 10 hPa, 60°N zonal wind from MERRA‐2 during the SSW. The response is similar in the northern and southern crests of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) but persists toward higher magnetic latitudes and the EIA trough. A slight phase shift toward earlier local times is consistent with theoretical expectations of an E‐region dynamo driving and agrees with semidiurnal tidal diagnostics of MIGHTI/ICON zonal winds at 105 km. COSMIC‐2 GIS are the first data set to resolve the tidal weather of the ionosphere on a day‐to‐day basis and, therefore, provide a new perspective on space weather variability driven by lower and middle atmosphere dynamics. 

Abstract We develop a new methodology for the multi‐resolution assimilation of electric fields by extending a Gaussian process model (Lattice Kriging) used for scalar field originally to vector field. This method takes the background empirical model as “a priori” knowledge and fuses real observations under the Gaussian process framework. The comparison of assimilated results under two different background models and three different resolutions suggests that (a) the new method significantly reduces fitting errors compared with the global spherical harmonic fitting (SHF) because it uses range‐limited basis functions ideal for the local fitting and (b) the fitting resolution, determined by the number of basis functions, is adjustable and higher resolution leads to smaller errors, indicating that more structures in the data are captured. We also test the sensitivity of the fitting results to the total amount of input data: (a) as the data amount increases, the fitting results deviate from the background model and become more determined by data and (b) the impacts of data can reach remote regions with no data available. The assimilation also better captures short‐period variations in local PFISR measurements than the SHF and maintains a coherent pattern with the surrounding. The multi‐resolution Lattice Kriging is examined via attributing basis functions into multiple levels with different resolutions (fine level is located in the region with observations). Such multi‐resolution fitting has the smallest error and shortest computation time, making the regional high‐resolution modeling efficient. Our method can be modified to achieve the multi‐resolution assimilation for other vector fields from unevenly distributed observations. 

We quantify the short-term (<30 day) variability of column O/N 2 measured by GOLD from January 2019 to August 2022 for various geomagnetic activity conditions. We find enhanced variabilities at high latitudes during active (Kp ≥ 3.0) times and weak but statistically significant variabilities at low latitudes. For active times, the largest absolute variability of O/N 2 ratio is 0.14 and the largest relative variability is 20.6% at ∼60.0°N in Fall, which are about twice those of quiet times. The variability at higher latitudes can be larger than that of lower latitudes by a factor of 5–8. We further quantify contributions of magnetospheric forcing to O/N 2 variability in the Ionosphere-Thermosphere region by correlating O/N 2 perturbations with Dst. During geomagnetic active times, positive correlations as large as +0.66 and negative correlations as large as −0.65 are found at high and low latitudes, respectively, indicative of storm-induced O and N 2 upwelling at high latitudes and down welling at low latitudes. During quiet times, correlations between O/N 2 perturbations and Dst become insignificant at all latitudes, implying a more substantial contribution from below. O/N 2 variabilities maximize in Fall and decrease towards Summer, while correlations maximize in Spring/Summer and decrease in Winter/Spring, which may be related to seasonal variations of geomagnetic activity and mean circulation.