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Abstract The US Drought Monitor is the leading drought monitoring tool in the United States. Updated weekly and freely distributed, it records the drought conditions as geo-referenced polygons showing one of six ordered levels. These levels are determined by a mixture of quantitative environmental measurements and local expert opinion across the entire United States. At present, forecasts of the Drought Monitor only convey the expected direction of drought development (i.e. worsen, persist, subside) and do not communicate any uncertainty. This limits the utility of forecasts. In this paper, we describe a Bayesian spatio-temporal ordinal hierarchical model for use in modelling and projecting drought conditions. The model is flexible, scalable, and interpretable. By viewing drought data as areal rather than point-referenced, we reduce the cost of sampling from the posterior by avoiding dense matrix inversion. Draws from the posterior predictive distribution produce future forecasts of actual drought levels—rather than only the direction of drought development—and all sources of uncertainty are propagated into the posterior. Spatial random effects and an autoregressive model structure capture spatial and temporal dependence, and help ensure smoothness in forecasts over space and time. The result is a framework for modelling and forecasting drought levels and capturing forecast uncertainty. 

Abstract We present a novel data set for drought in the continental US (CONUS) built to enable computationally efficient spatio-temporal statistical and probabilistic models of drought. We converted drought data obtained from the widely-used US Drought Monitor (USDM) from its native geo-referenced polygon format to a 0.5 degree regular grid. We merged known environmental drivers of drought, including those obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), US Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow data, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) teleconnections data. The resulting data set permits statistical and probabilistic modeling of drought with explicit spatial and/or temporal dependence. Such models could be used to forecast drought at short-range, seasonal to sub-seasonal, and inter-annual timescales with uncertainty, extending the reach and value of the current US Drought Outlook from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. This novel data product provides the first common gridded dataset that includes critical variables used to inform hydrological and meteorological drought.