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Abstract This study examines the process of water-column stratification breakdown in Antarctic coastal polynyas adjacent to an ice shelf with a cavity underneath. This first part of a two-part sequence seeks to quantify the influence of offshore katabatic winds, alongshore winds, air temperature, and initial ambient stratification on the time scales of polynya destratification through combining process-oriented numerical simulations and analytical scaling. In particular, the often-neglected influence of wind-driven circulation on the lateral transport of the water formed at the polynya surface—which we call Polynya Source Water (PSW)—is systematically examined here. First, an ice shelf–sea ice–ocean coupled numerical model is adapted to simulate the process of PSW formation in polynyas of various configurations. The simulations highlight that (i) before reaching the bottom, majority of the PSW is actually carried away from the polynya by katabatic wind–induced offshore outflow, diminishing water-column mixing in the polynya and intrusion of the PSW into the neighboring ice shelf cavity, and (ii) alongshore coastal easterly winds, through inducing onshore Ekman transport, reduce offshore loss of the PSW and enhance polynya mixing and PSW intrusion into the cavity. Second, an analytical scaling of the destratification time scale is derived based on fundamental physical principles to quantitatively synthesize the influence of the physical factors, which is then verified by independent numerical sensitivity simulations. This work provides insights into the mechanisms that drive temporal and cross-polynya variations in stratification and PSW formation in Antarctic coastal polynyas, and establishes a framework for studying differences among the polynyas in the ocean. 

Abstract This is Part II of a study examining wintertime destratification in Antarctic coastal polynyas, focusing on providing a qualitative description of the influence of ice tongues and headlands, both common geometric features neighboring the polynyas. The model of a coastal polynya used in Part I is modified to include an ice tongue and a headland to investigate their impacts on the dispersal of water formed at the polynya surface, which is referred to as Polynya Source Water (PSW) here. The model configuration qualitatively represents the settings of some coastal polynyas, such as the Terra Nova Bay Polynya. The simulations highlight that an ice tongue next to a polynya tends to break the alongshore symmetry in the lateral return flows toward the polynya, creating a stagnant region in the corner between the ice tongue and polynya where outflow of the PSW in the water column is suppressed. This enhances sinking of the PSW and accelerates destratification of the polynya water column. Adding a headland to the other side of the polynya tends to restore the alongshore symmetry in the lateral return flows, which increases the offshore PSW transport and slows down destratification in the polynya. This work stresses the importance of resolving small-scale geometric features in simulating vertical mixing in the polynya. It provides a framework to explain spatial and temporal variability in rates of destratification and Dense Shelf Water formation across Antarctic coastal polynyas, and helps understand why some polynyas are sources of Antarctic Bottom Water while others are not. 

The largest uncertainty in future sea-level rise is loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Ice shelves, freely floating platforms of ice that fringe the ice sheets, play a crucial role in restraining discharge of grounded ice into the ocean through buttressing. However, since the 1990s, several ice shelves have thinned, retreated, and collapsed. If this pattern continues, it could expose thick cliffs that become structurally unstable and collapse in a process called marine ice cliff instability (MICI). However, the feedbacks between calving, retreat, and other forcings are not well understood. Here we review observed modes of calving from ice shelves and marine-terminating glaciers, and their relation to environmental forces. We show that the primary driver of calving is long-term internal glaciological stress, but as ice shelves thin they may become more vulnerable to environmental forcing. This vulnerability—and the potential for MICI—comes from a combination of the distribution of preexisting flaws within the ice and regions where the stress is large enough to initiate fracture. Although significant progress has been made modeling these processes, theories must now be tested against a wide range of environmental and glaciological conditions in both modern and paleo conditions. ▪ Ice shelves, floating platforms of ice fed by ice sheets, shed mass in a near-instantaneous fashion through iceberg calving. ▪ Most ice shelves exhibit a stable cycle of calving front advance and retreat that is insensitive to small changes in environmental conditions. ▪ Some ice shelves have retreated or collapsed completely, and in the future this could expose thick cliffs that could become structurally unstable called ice cliff instability. ▪ The potential for ice shelf and ice cliff instability is controlled by the presence and evolution of flaws or fractures within the ice.