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Abstract This study compares the 5-day tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) with a machine learning approach applied to this ensemble. A convolutional neural network (CNN) model was developed using northern Atlantic TC training data from 2008 to 2022, while an independent set of storms was used to evaluate the CNN model. The CNN for tropical cyclone track forecasting was trained using fivefold cross validation on a shuffled dataset split into 90% training/validation and 10% evaluation. PyTorch was used to develop a CNN model with a custom loss function, and performance was assessed using the haversine function and error metrics, comparing the CNN’s TC track forecasts to GEFS mean track forecasts. The CNN has a 58%–86% better track prediction against GEFS mean for forecast hours 0–96, which decreases to 35%–53% for hours 108–120. Track differences between those cases that the CNN improved the forecast versus did not improve are also explored, which shows that most of the CNN improvement is from a decrease in the along-track error (ATE). This is consistent with past studies of this ensemble, which showed that the largest bias exists in the along-track direction. Significance StatementThis research focuses on enhancing the accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts by leveraging a convolutional neural network (CNN). Traditional forecasting models have relatively large errors in predicting the track of tropical cyclones, especially at forecast lead times of 3–5 days. These errors can result in inadequate warnings and misallocation of resources during storm preparations, potentially endangering lives and property. Our CNN model addresses these issues by correcting systematic biases, resulting in more accurate forecasts. 

Housing and household characteristics are key determinants of social and economic well-being, yet our understanding of their interrelationships remains limited. This study addresses this knowledge gap by developing a deep contrastive learning (DCL) model to infer housing-household relationships using the American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). More broadly, the proposed model is suitable for a class of problems where the goal is to learn joint relationships between two distinct entities without explicitly labeled ground truth data. Our proposed dual-encoder DCL approach leverages co-occurrence patterns in PUMS and introduces a bisect K-means clustering method to overcome the absence of ground truth labels. The dual-encoder DCL architecture is designed to handle the semantic differences between housing (building) and household (people) features while mitigating noise introduced by clustering. To validate the model, we generate a synthetic ground truth dataset and conduct comprehensive evaluations. The model further demonstrates its superior performance in capturing housing-household relationships in Delaware compared to state-of-the-art methods. A transferability test in North Carolina confirms its generalizability across diverse sociodemographic and geographic contexts. Finally, the post-hoc explainable AI analysis using SHAP values reveals that tenure status and mortgage information play a more significant role in housing-household matching than traditionally emphasized factors such as the number of persons and rooms.