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Abstract Future anthropogenic land use change (LUC) may alter atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol (black carbon and organic aerosol) burden by perturbing biogenic and fire emissions. However, there has been little investigation of this effect. We examine the global evolution of future carbonaceous aerosol under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways projected reforestation and deforestation scenarios using the CESM2 model from present‐day to 2100. Compared to present‐day, the change in future biogenic volatile organic compounds emission follows changes in forest coverage, while fire emissions decrease in both projections, driven by trends in deforestation fires. The associated carbonaceous aerosol burden change produces moderate aerosol direct radiative forcing (−0.021 to +0.034 W/m²) and modest mean reduction in PM_2.5exposure (−0.11 μg/m³to −0.23 μg/m³) in both scenarios. We find that future anthropogenic LUC may be more important in determining atmospheric carbonaceous aerosol burden than direct anthropogenic emissions, highlighting the importance of further constraining the impact of LUC. 

Abstract. Secondary inorganic aerosols (sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium, SNA) are major contributors to fine particulate matter. Predicting concentrations of these species is complicated by the cascade of processes that control their abundance, including emissions, chemistry, thermodynamic partitioning, and removal. In this study, we use 11 flight campaigns to evaluate the GEOS-Chem model performance for SNA. Across all the campaigns, the model performance is best for sulfate (R2 = 0.51; normalized mean bias (NMB) = 0.11) and worst for nitrate (R2=0.22; NMB = 1.76), indicating substantive model deficiencies in the nitrate simulation. Thermodynamic partitioning reproduces the total particulate nitrate well (R2=0.79; NMB = 0.09), but actual partitioning (i.e., ε(NO3-)= NO3- / TNO3) is challenging to assess given the limited sets of full gas- and particle-phase observations needed for ISORROPIA II. In particular, ammonia observations are not often included in aircraft campaigns, and more routine measurements would help constrain sources of SNA model bias. Model performance is sensitive to changes in emissions and dry and wet deposition, with modest improvements associated with the inclusion of different chemical loss and production pathways (i.e., acid uptake on dust, N2O5 uptake, and NO3- photolysis). However, these sensitivity tests show only modest reduction in the nitrate bias, with no improvement to the model skill (i.e., R2), implying that more work is needed to improve the description of loss and production of nitrate and SNA as a whole.