Search for: All records

Abstract The monthly mean sea level along the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Coast varies seasonally, reaching a minimum in January and a maximum in September during the 1960–2020 period. However, this seasonal cycle has changed significantly on multi‐decadal timescales. In the last two decades, the annual minimum has shifted from January to February. The amplitude of seasonal changes increased by 65% from 14.16 cm in 1980–1999 to 23.16 cm in 2000–2020. Even more concerning, the maximum sea level in September rose by 82%, from 6.81 to 12.38 cm, potentially exacerbating coastal flooding over the past 20 years. A two‐layer ocean model effectively replicates both the phase and magnitude of the observed changes and attributes these shifts to changes in wind stress near the coast, with relatively minor influence from deep ocean forcing. Both alongshore and cross‐shore wind stress changes are found to contribute to changes in the sea level's seasonal cycle. 

Abstract Understanding the occurrence of the intrusion of open ocean water onto continental shelves has scientific significance and societal relevance as the intrusion can significantly disrupt the marine ecosystem and fisheries. High-resolution numerical modeling is used to investigate the spatiotemporal occurrence and mechanisms of highly anomalous bottom intrusions on the southern New England shelf. Based on multi-year numerical simulations, this study reveals a hotspot of cross-isobath bottom-intensified intrusions at a topographic trough. Examination of multiple events portrays a robust mechanism of locally enhanced bottom intrusions. Persistent upwelling-favorable winds set up an enhanced pressure gradient field at the topographic trough and drive the intrusion a large-distance onshore. Numerical experiments with and without the topographic trough show that the localized pressure gradient results from a combination of the shelf orientation and local bathymetry. Although highly anomalous waters on the shelf relate to wind forcing, correlations between the wind stress anomaly and bottom salinity anomaly at the location of the enhanced intrusion is modest, implying the need to incorporate other environmental factors to develop more deterministic prediction models for subsurface conditions on the shelf. The results have important implications for marine environment and fisheries management. 

Abstract A long‐standing hypothesis is that the steady along‐shelf circulation in the Northwest Atlantic (NWA) coastal ocean is driven by buoyancy input from continental freshwater runoff. However, the forcing from the freshwater runoff has not been adequately evaluated and compared with other potential driving mechanisms. This study investigates the roles of both wind stress and freshwater runoff in driving the mean along‐shelf flow in the NWA coastal ocean and examines other potential drivers using a newly developed high‐resolution regional model with realistic forcing conditions. The results reveal that wind stress has a larger impact than freshwater runoff on the overall mean circulation and along‐shelf sea‐level gradient on the NWA shelf. While the continental freshwater input consistently contributes to the equatorward along‐shelf flow and higher sea level along the coast, wind stress is more effective for the setup of the broad‐scale circulation pattern by driving the along‐shelf flow on the Labrador Shelf and opposing the flow in the Mid‐Atlantic Bight and on the Scotian Shelf. In addition to the local wind and continental runoff, the sub‐Arctic inflow from higher latitude is an essential part of the NWA shelf circulation system. This remote driver directly contributes to the along‐shelf flow and insulates the shelf flow from the Gulf Stream on the southern shelves.