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Abstract During the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; ∼14.7–13.8 Ma), the global climate experienced rapid cooling, leading to modern‐like temperatures, precipitation patterns, and permanent ice sheets. However, proxy records indicate that atmospheric pCO₂and regional climate conditions (SST, ice volume) were highly variable from 17 to 12.5 Ma and these changes were not always synchronous. Here, we report on a series of middle Miocene (∼16–12.5 Ma) simulations using the water isotope enabled earth system model (iCESM1.2) to explore the potential for multiple equilibrium states to explain the observed decoupling between pCO₂and regional climates. Our simulations indicate that initial ocean conditions can significantly influence deep water formation in the North Atlantic and lead to multiple ocean equilibria. When the model is initiated from a cold state, residual cool surface water temperatures in the North Atlantic intensify Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC) and inhibit Arctic sea‐ice formation. When initiated from a warm state, the AMOC remains weak. The different ocean states drive differences in equator‐to‐pole sea surface temperature gradients and sea ice distributions through heat redistribution changes. These equilibria cause variations in temperature gradients and sea ice distribution due to changes in heat redistribution. Additionally, changes in ocean circulation and a reduced temperature gradient in the North Atlantic increase North Atlantic precipitation when the AMOC is strong. These findings underscore the importance of the ocean's initial state in shaping regional climate responses to atmospheric pCO₂, potentially explaining regional climate pattern variability observed during the Miocene. 

Abstract Measurements of oxygen and hydrogen stable isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O and δD) in meteoric waters provide insight to overlapping effects of evaporation, precipitation, and mixing on basin scale hydrology. This study of waters collected between 2016 and 2021 in the Turkana Basin, northern Kenya, uses δ¹⁸O and δD to understand water balance in Lake Turkana, a large, low‐latitude, alkaline desert lake. The Omo River, a major river system in the Ethiopian Highlands, is historically understood to provide approximately 90% of the water input to Lake Turkana. Discharge of the Omo is prohibitively difficult to measure, but stable isotope ratios in the lake may provide a meaningful method for monitoring the lake's response to changes in input. Precipitation in the Turkana Basin is low (<200 mm/year) with negligible rainfall on the lake's surface, and all water loss from the lake is evaporative. We compare new measurements with previous data from the region and records of lake height and precipitation from the same time period. We show that a Bayesian approach to modeling evaporation using atmospheric conditions and river δ¹⁸O and δD yields results consistent with published water balance models. Continued sampling of lake and meteoric waters in the Turkana Basin will be a useful way to monitor the lake's response to regional and global climate change. 

Abstract. Paleoclimate reconstructions of the Early Eocene provide important data constraints on the climate and hydrologic cycle under extreme warm conditions. Available terrestrial water isotope records have been primarily interpreted to signal an enhanced hydrologic cycle in the Early Eocene associated with large-scale warming induced by high atmospheric CO2. However, orbital-scale variations in these isotope records have been difficult to quantify and largely overlooked, even though orbitally driven changes in solar irradiance can impact temperature and the hydrologic cycle. In this study, we fill this gap using water isotope–climate simulations to investigate the orbital sensitivity of Earth's hydrologic cycle under different CO2 background states. We analyze the relative difference between climatic changes resulting from CO2 and orbital changes and find that the seasonal climate responses to orbital changes are larger than CO2-driven changes in several regions. Using terrestrial δ18O and δ2H records from the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), we compare our modeled isotopic seasonal range to fossil evidence and find approximate agreement between empirical and simulated isotopic compositions. The limitations surrounding the equilibrated snapshot simulations of this transient event and empirical data include timing and time interval discrepancies between model and data, the preservation state of the proxy, analytical uncertainty, the relationship between δ18O or δ2H and environmental context, and vegetation uncertainties within the simulations. In spite of the limitations, this study illustrates the utility of fully coupled, isotope-enabled climate models when comparing climatic changes and interpreting proxy records in times of extreme warmth.